Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

122 members currently in the thread. That's not so bad considering around 1,500 died on the Titanic. 

I just laughed out loud. Omg, we all are going down with the ship at 18z

[Nomz]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Check the Panasonic?

what about the SPIRE

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

122 members currently in the thread. That's not so bad considering around 1,500 died on the Titanic. 

To be fair this is our best threat since we tracked two cloudy days the other week.

[Climate175]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I just laughed out loud. Omg, we all are going down with the ship at 18z

If it still shows it at 18z (not holding my breath), that would be absolutely hilarious though. 

[wasnow215]

43 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It might be the current administration leaking into the core of the american model.  Think about it - you never know what's going to come out of the white house on any given day and half the time it's over the top bonkers and changes by the next news cycle.  The GFS is basically doing the exact same thing.  Maybe it's all by design...

The problem is though the GFS has been this way for several years now. Including when President Biden was in office. So maybe it still has some residuals, just can't seem to find its way, and wants to make things out to be better than they really are. 

It's fine though bc AI models are the "auto pen". ;-)

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Climate175 said:

If it still shows it at 18z (not holding my breath), that would be absolutely hilarious though. 

Ships sink at 00z too

[stormtracker]

Remember the exciting days leading up to a big storm and the NAM would drop like 45" on us?  That's when you knew it was real

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Ships sink at 00z too

True that. I’m here for the ride regardless of what happens haha.

[TowsonWeather]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Remember the exciting days leading up to a big storm and the NAM would drop like 45" on us?  That's when you knew it was real

DGEX porn was the best

[Ji]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The real skilled Mets here aren’t predicting a blizzard. No one is buying that crazy gfs run. 

not true. Meteoroglist Mark McGarbage is buying it

[LeesburgWx]

NC weenies watching us walk into the same wilderness they did a month ago

[Solution Man]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

NC weenies watching us walk into the same wilderness they did a month ago

Sadly I think this is a death march. Just gonna enjoy the porn while I can

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Ships sink at 00z too

18z is gonna be a 50% cave at least. Its already late in the game for it to be doing this.

[paulythegun]

17z product here. chance of warning level snow through monday 7am.

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Remember the exciting days leading up to a big storm and the NAM would drop like 45" on us?  That's when you knew it was real

2014 lol. Shit was the best. I knew i was getting my 3-5" cold smoke when the NAM dropped a 40" run over the lowlands. That when getting "Nam'ed" started. It started "happy hour" 

[Pityflakes]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

18z is gonna be a 50% cave at least. Its already late in the game for it to be doing this.

Patience.  GFS has at least 8 model cycles before game time.  There's plenty of time to let it cook and do what it does best (fold to the euro). 

[LeesburgWx]

It's almost impossible to improve upon the 12z GFS solution (until it tucks another 30 miles NW). I fully expect a reduction of some sort from 12z. We should know by hour 30 or so how it will play out though. Quick with pulling the band aid off

[Heisy]

why is the GFS the way it is

It takes time for it to flush out bad initialization data because i believe new runs use its 6hr forecast from the previous run.

We had this same thing happen last year or the year before when the gfs was showing a blizzard under 96 hours and every other model was a miss. It’ll make a cave by 18 or 00z. At least it’s entertaining though! This has been the winter of what ifs and close calls. Such a tease.

[blizzardmeiser]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

not true. Meteoroglist Mark McGarbage is buying it

He uses the Mark Model 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

2014 lol. Shit was the best. I knew i was getting my 3-5" cold smoke when the NAM dropped a 40" run over the lowlands. That when getting "Nam'ed" started. It started "happy hour" 

The winter I discovered this forum! I'll never forget when somebody said "Wam bam thank you NAM!" Didn't know what the heck they were talking about, lol

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Sadly I think this is a death march. Just gonna enjoy the porn while I can

Gfs is so bad. Hard to not think it's because of budget cuts. It's gotten alot worse over the last year.

I view it as one of the JV models now.

Go USA lol.

[Grothar of Herndon]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Remember the exciting days leading up to a big storm and the NAM would drop like 45" on us?  That's when you knew it was real

The two 2010 snowstorms in late January and early February was the craziest time as every model was Crushing us. Joyful celebrations after every model run. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 12Z GFS and EURO at HR 54.

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

The two 2010 snowstorms in late January and early February was the craziest time as every model was Crushing us. Joyful celebrations after every model run. 

Same with 2016! 6 straight days of crushing after crushing and we were squabbling over getting a foot and getting 2, lol

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs is so bad. Hard to not think it's because of budget cuts. It's gotten alot worse over the last year.

I view it as one of the JV models now.

Go USA lol.

Sup DT? What about before the budget cuts? Lol

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Sup DT? What about before the budget cuts? Lol

Lol.

It was never on the same level as the Euro but it's never been this bad.  

[IronTy]

What do the weather betting markets have for accumulation odds and amounts in DC?

[Scraff]

We’re all in on watching and waiting for this hunk of junk to fold. Just watch though. 18z will triple down. All chips, house, car, wife, maybe even its firstborn. 

[clskinsfan]

Take the politics to the banter thread ffs. 

[baltosquid]

NAM is running. If we can’t even get a NAMing out of this threat then that just makes the GFS even crazier.