Torch Tiger Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, hooralph said: Maynard, MA. 1978. But looking to tug it SE it a bit. amazing shot! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, FXWX said: The comparisons are decent; with the explosive deeping of the 500 mb trough, intense 850 low passing south of SNE a bit further south than in 78, great easterly moisture inflow north of the 850; both have classic "S" shaped 850 isotherms as well as signs slowing down and attempt at capture of surface system. The sfc layout shows the classic banana shaped high with the surface low embedded same as 78; the 78 high was ~1048 mb, this one is a bit stronger ~ 1051 mb; almost exact locations. So, overall, similar sfc and upper level layouts; not identical, but pretty dam close. Sfc and upper level features are a tad further south this time. Yes certainly. I think what separates 78 from the rest was the convection. I had a severe storm for 5 hours of pure whiteout highlighted by constant pink lightning. This allowed insane winds and snow to be transported down into the hardest windpack I have ever been in. Nothing has topped that but 22 is 2nd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateMA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, weathafella said: My recollection of ‘78 is being taunted by my friend while I was crying from my home in LA. First of leg of my trip descending into Atlanta. One more leg and I’ll be home. As I explained to my wife, I’m not a womanizer, I’m reasonably sober and we’re kind to each other. I’m running out of time and I’m not missing this one. Have a safe flight. Lets hope it lives up to hype. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, FXWX said: The comparisons are decent; with the explosive deeping of the 500 mb trough, intense 850 low passing south of SNE a bit further south than in 78, great easterly moisture inflow north of the 850; both have classic "S" shaped 850 isotherms as well as signs slowing down and attempt at capture of surface system. The sfc layout shows the classic banana shaped high with the surface low embedded same as 78; the 78 high was ~1048 mb, this one is a bit stronger ~ 1051 mb; almost exact locations. So, overall, similar sfc and upper level layouts; not identical, but pretty dam close. Sfc and upper level features are a tad further south this time. Im not sure if this is the difference but 78 stalled and actually looped not to mention the heavy banding once it was in the GOM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, hooralph said: Maynard, MA. 1978. But looking to tug it SE it a bit. Great snowbanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz those are all time panels like 6 an hour in convection. Check out the marginal for CT coast can you say 2013 with its 9 per hour band. Yeah that's what those panels remind me of Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf. Check out this weenie warm seclusion too 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf. Check out this weenie warm seclusion too Cat 2 lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I am not saying you or I, but someone's going to get f'n porked with exhaust on either side 3-5" hour rates , wherever those static bands set up. <970 mb lol and maturing low with h5 south of us doesn't scream widespread 2' No, but deep easterly inflow does. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf. Check out this weenie warm seclusion too Please bend me backwards 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, hooralph said: Maynard, MA. 1978. But looking to tug it SE it a bit. I love the rabbit! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Downhill. Don’t do it But you’re doing it, aren’t you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf. Check out this weenie warm seclusion too You would think I stand a chance at not getting totally boned with that trajectory...NJ-NYC-CT, although granted it won't be as intense up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, kdxken said: I love the rabbit! No love for the Bus?? It's the most 70s picture ever. 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Great snowbanks My Dad was a master with the snowblower. I think the 80s hurt him badly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Was thinking the same thing. I noticed that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wee Willie Winky 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 28 minutes ago, Masswx said: I feel that hype Im this forum has definitely died down with these 12z and 18z trends despite everybody being concerned about global and not close range models because “it’s too far out”-dad but I think meso models should definitely carry more weight than globals although nice that the euro ticked north and increased qpf. Nice gfs run at 0z and Nam and Reggie and hrrr do are good everybody will say we’re back! Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%. 5 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You would think I stand a chance atone getting totally boned with that trajectory...NJ-NYC-CT, although granted it won't be as intense up here. I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Also—-fwiw, GFS seems to get cold feet to a degree in the last runs up to go time almost every coastal for the past like forever. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MegaMike said: Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%. A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said: Always thought with these doozies the short range models are gonna pick up on the banding signals while the globals paint with a broad brush, time to look at the mesoscale and even then, it comes down to radar / nowcast at go time with these bigguns... Exactly!! 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz those are all time panels like 6 an hour in convection. Check out the marginal for CT coast can you say 2013 with its 9 per hour band. Yeah that's what those panels remind me of I absolutely believe there will be some 4"+ per hour rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, hooralph said: No love for the Bus?? It's the most 70s picture ever. My Dad was a master with the snowblower. I think the 80s hurt him badly. We had a VW bus and a bug in 1978. Snow drifts were over their roofs when it finally was done. It took us a week to completely shovel the driveway. No snowblower. And that would have been useless I think. Mass National Guard front end loaders finally cleared our street. I was scared and fascinated by them. Snow forts that remain unrivaled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD We take that look with an EML 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 MAUL still showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We take that look with an EML Talk dirty to me and whisper slowly next to me ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, MegaMike said: Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%. Pretty cool stuff. Great to see my FV3 up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lets get this further up the coast and stall near Long Island 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Gotta show some love to the WSSI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 59 minutes ago, vortex95 said: 40" was common in eastern MA and RI, just did not have the degree of spotter/co-op observers back them. A fairly reliable measurement from someone I know got about 44" total in an open field in Woburn MA. Given the how the area between 128-495 NW of BOS tends to have a local precip max in many nor'easters, this is not unreasonable. What must the max been in March 88 then? Tons of official 40-50” obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 recon flights out right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes certainly. I think what separates 78 from the rest was the convection. I had a severe storm for 5 hours of pure whiteout highlighted by constant pink lightning. This allowed insane winds and snow to be transported down into the hardest windpack I have ever been in. Nothing has topped that but 22 is 2nd I remember that thought it was transformers blowing was too young to understand it was lighting... sick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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