“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Blizzard watches are still a thing?

no just winter storm watches 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

When are you getting back Jerry?

Just past midnight tonight.  Had to go through ATL with a 2 hour layover.  NAM is amazing and 3k even better!

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Just past midnight tonight.  Had to go through ATL with a 2 hour layover.  NAM is amazing and 3k even better!

that's so awesome 

[Cyclone-68]

33 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And how about this?  Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook.  How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard????  I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU!  But if anyone knows something similar, please post!
 

I don’t know if this qualifies but the Carolinas had a tornado outbreak when we had a huge nor’easter back in March 83

[WinterWolf]

Got home about 2 pm. LFG!!   Looks like we’re on the verge of something memorable at the least. I am about 3 miles north of the blizzard warning lol…I’ll expect blizzard conditions. 

[moneypitmike]

Not quite sure why GYX has put a watch up—maybe just to make me feel better

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

One thing I have noticed about our big dogs is that they tend to sneak up on us in the 48-72 hours window (likely because the energy is finally sampled) and QPF tends to continuously increase up until go time.

Completely agreed here. 

I mentioned this either last night or the night before, when the ensemble means were down to 522 dm at 84 to 90 hours lead!   Historic events are typically not seen in the mid range.  More often than not - though yes there are rare exceptions - your plotting a major with very impressive parametrics, and then it goes out of control almost during now cast and bests even the outlooks.    1993 and 'Sandy' are examples of notable exceptions.   

This one has been suggesting history for since about 48 hours ago, when it was just one or two outliers going bonkers.  Now it seems there are less conservative model visions than going the other way.  So I dunno.   going to be an interesting event 

[Damage In Tolland]

BWC?

 

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

BWC?

 

Fan of it?

[weatherwiz]

GFS pretty steadfast at 18z...excellent to see. 

[MegaMike]

36 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And how about this?  Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook.  How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard????  I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU!  But if anyone knows something similar, please post!
 

So impressive! 

The 18z HRRR has a 3-5% chance of lightning (throughout the entire atmosphere) for Providence from 12am-3am on Monday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BBC?

Go for it. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

LFG!!!!

 

Strong to Damaging Winds: a very strong low level NE jet up to 80 kt
will traverse RI and eastern MA. Model soundings from both the NAM
and GFS support gusts up to 45-55 mph, but as high as 70 mph
possible across Cape Cod and the Islands! These wind speeds combined
with the heavy snowfall rates will create white out conditions at
times, hence a blizzard warning has been issued for RI and eastern
MA. If the low trends farther west, blizzard warnings may need to be
expanded into the Worcester Hills

It's like they don't even think of CT. 

[Sled]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BWC?

 

We cripple

[dendrite]

GFS south

[Shaun Curry]

1 minute ago, MegaMike said:

So impressive! 

The 18z HRRR has a 3-5% chance of lightning (throughout the entire atmosphere) for Providence from 12am-3am on Monday.

Does this mean that RI gets Jim Cantore on the thundersnow beat?

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS pretty steadfast at 18z...excellent to see. 

QPF meh

[JJBASHB]

GFS looks a little south/east at 18z

[78Blizzard]

LOL, just saw a storm update on FoxNews and their map depicted an area of 24-36" just south of Boston toward the Cape.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah a little SE for sure. 

[dendrite]

AIFS a tick SE too

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fan of it?

Maybe 

[dendrite]

0.15” QPF for me that run. 

[TalcottWx]

Hmm

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah a little SE for sure. 

shuffle has begun, early? Or just some noise, guess ensembles will be a bit more telling....

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

QPF meh

2.14” meh

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah a little SE for sure. 

Flies in the face of NAM and the Mesos which have been moving nnw.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

QPF meh

Yeah it is a bit further south and east...I was just thinking it was noise but next few frame was definitely more than just noise. 

I think from here on out its really going to be about focusing on the CCB and how it evolves and does it pivot and where so...thats where we're going to probably see 2"+ QPF. Even though the valley shows less for QPF (especially just north in MA I don't think you can totally rule out the valley getting clobbered or even a scenario where the heaviest banding actually pivots across the valley

[JJBASHB]

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Flies in the face of NAM and the Mesos which have been moving nnw.

Nah there has been a LBSW trend today.