Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

34 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm sticking with a blend of GFS and Euro Ai those are better models. I would rate euro as good as icon or ukmet!

You can't base your ratings on whatever model is giving you what you want to hear that day. It doesn't work like that.

 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You can't base your ratings on whatever model is giving you what you want to hear that day. It doesn't work like that.

 

agreed - I wouldn't discriminate against any model in this set -up - BUT when I see the GEFS and EPS not on board for anything other than an advisory level event - thats a RED FLAG against these OP models advertiising a MECS + event

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You can't base your ratings on whatever model is giving you what you want to hear that day. It doesn't work like that.

 

yep if the euro had showed a HECS it would be hailed as great model and a list of storms it nailed.  Instread it's a terrible model that has "struggled" all winter.     It did quite well this year on the 12/26/25 storm BTW

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep if the euro had showed a HECS it would be hailed as great model and a list of storms it nailed.  Instread it's a terrible model that has "struggled" all winter.     It did quite well this year on the 12/26/25 storm BTW

lol absolutely not, if the euro was the only model showing a hit without the support from the AIFS it would be tossed in the trash

[brooklynwx99]

i will 100% take this 5-6 days out, let the chips fall where they may

[jconsor]

Impressive four run trend from the AIFS ensemble.

Note the western ridge trending further west and more amplified.  Meanwhile the combination of the ridging east of Hudson Bay and trough over SE Canada exerts less of a suppressive influence, allowing the Sun-Mon trough to amplify more.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i will 100% take this 5-6 days out, let the chips fall where they may

so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Impressive four run trend from the AIFS ensemble.

Note the western ridge trending further west and more amplified.  Meanwhile the combination of the ridging east of Hudson Bay and trough over SE Canada exerts less of a suppressive influence, allowing the Sun-Mon trough to amplify more.

you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

 

i think a MECS is totally possible, but would like to see the EPS jump on board soon

[jconsor]

The GEPS showing similar trends to the AIFS ensemble, though today's 12z run is a bit more suppressed than the 0z as the trough turns negative tilt near the NE US coast.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep if the euro had showed a HECS it would be hailed as great model and a list of storms it nailed.  Instread it's a terrible model that has "struggled" all winter.     It did quite well this year on the 12/26/25 storm BTW

No I would absolutely be cautious. I'm still cautious but let's be real here the euro just isn't a great model anymore. Euro ai is!

[bluewave]

Good to see the EPS AIFS showing the growing storm potential. Not a bad signal from a day 5-6 AI ensemble. Let’s see this hold for another few days so we can pick up our first warning level event in a month. 
 

 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

No I would absolutely be cautious. I'm still cautious but let's be real here the euro just isn't a great model anymore. Euro ai is!

First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case

[MANDA]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i will 100% take this 5-6 days out, let the chips fall where they may

It sure has the basics you want to see.  Ridge over the intermountain west, perhaps a tad too far east but noise at this stage of the game.  A 50/50 low.  A northern branch s/w digging through the Ohio Valley with an already slightly negative tilt.

Agree, at this point I'll take it and let the chips fall where they may.  This is 5-6 days out and very far from a done deal either for a hit of some kind or a total miss.  Most that can be said at this point is "moderate to strong storm signal for later in the weekend".

[NEG NAO]

This is from this afternoons Upton AFD:

AFD from KOKX

[jconsor]

It is encouraging to see two other highly skilled ML models (GraphCast and Pangu) show an outcome very similar to the AIFS and also similar to AIFS ensemble mean, without the entanglement of the the Sun-Mon system with the system ahead of it across SE Canada shown by the operational ECMWF (last image).

[jconsor]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

Basically agree with Brooklynwx.  From past experience given the run to run consistency and cross-model agreement amongst the various ML models including AIFS and its ensemble, WeatherNext, GraphCast and Pangu, I would expect the EPS to shift closer to their scenario in the next 24-36 hours.

[donsutherland1]

Model Debate:

[MJO812]

Weathernext shows a big storm

[WeatherGeek2025]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case

an example the euro sucks is winter of 2025-26 not one time has it been right! Also my question to you is would you want euro or euro ai on your side?

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Weathernext shows a big storm

you got the image?

[Tatamy]

Have to careful with some of the real end outcomes coming out in the models.  GDPS is calling for 30”+ for my area.  In 2021 it did something similar (RDPS) only it called for 50” so there is an history with that model.  Actual storm amounts ranged from 24-36” where I am.
 

 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Basically agree with Brooklynwx.  From past experience given the run to run consistency and cross-model agreement amongst the various ML models including AIFS and its ensemble, WeatherNext, GraphCast and Pangu, I would expect the EPS to shift closer to their scenario in the next 24-36 hours.

Post more please

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

an example the euro sucks is winter of 2025-26 not one time has it been right! Also my question to you is would you want euro or euro ai on your side?

Post less please

[WeatherGeek2025]

Canadians Para

[MANDA]

26 minutes ago, jconsor said:

It is encouraging to see two other highly skilled ML models (GraphCast and Pangu) show an outcome very similar to the AIFS and also similar to AIFS ensemble mean, without the entanglement of the the Sun-Mon system with the system ahead of it across SE Canada shown by the operational ECMWF (last image).

Track of 500 feature is ideal....as indicated.  Remains to be seen how close to reality it is come Sunday night and Monday.  A track as indicated would deliver the goods!

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

an example the euro sucks is winter of 2025-26 not one time has it been right! Also my question to you is would you want euro or euro ai on your side?

My take on all the models is they all have their strengths and weaknesses - so I prefer using NBM (National Blend of Models)

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/17 12z 

NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.8 / rain to hvy snow
GFS: 1.3 / Hvy snow
GGEM:  1.9 / Hvy prolific  snow
UKMET:   1.1 / Hvy snow
GEFS:  0.4 / mostly misses
EURO AI AIFS:  1.1 / hvy snow
Euro : 0.3 / mist
 

 

12z mostly sweet suite - onto 18z 

[RU848789]

Been out all day playing disc golf and just got back and did a quick check of the models and the GFS, UK, CMC, AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext2, and ICON all showed a major to even historic snowstorm for pretty much the entire Philly-NJ-NYC area (and down to DC and up to Boston in most), but the Euro shows essentially nada. Do I have that right? So, who's in charge of fixing the Euro. C'mon, you guys are meteorologists, make it happen. :>)

[mob1]

JMA