Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: I think jersey shore is going to get rocked I think Monmouth (maybe N Ocean) good to go, but south of there not sure on temps, ratios, and axis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Don't think anyone cares about the JMA but the 12z is stronger than previous runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates. Didn’t someone in here say ratios would likely be 8 or 9-1 due to the strong winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates. Said this a few times yesterday. This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: Don't think anyone cares about the JMA but the 12z is stronger than previous runs It dropped off qpf quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality The groundhog slander too. I've never seen folks so indignant about winter weather in the middle of February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully. If an artic high is very strong, the cutoff can be very tight. I think 2016 was a good example of that. This storm doesn't seem to have that feature. Any mets want to weigh-in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 46 minutes ago, MANDA said: Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ. Looking at the same thing every run. What does NEPA look like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The groundhog slander too. I've never seen folks so indignant about winter weather in the middle of February Most normal people like warm weather 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro running yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Northof78 said: Euro running yet? Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality These people have to be under adult age. I can understand if our last snowiest winter was some time during the 20th century, but who could forget about 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, or 2014-15? Those were at least recent enough that people should remember how cold and snowy they were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: These people have to be under adult age. I can understand if our last snowiest winter was some time during the 20th century, but who could forget about 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, or 2014-15? Those were at least recent enough that people should remember how cold and snowy they were. Nah people have short term memories. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Diaper duty is getting to me In the blink of an eye you'll be attending his high school graduation. Trust me, it's that "quick." 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality i heard people this morning saying they were all sick of the snow already....it's only snowed a handful of times! i heard an official from nyc saying it too, we are all tired of the snow.....that's what happens when it doesn't melt i guess. here in nj people complain about the snow anytime, no matter how little we get, its too much for them......they all want to wake up in san diego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Euro running yet? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: i heard people this morning saying they were all sick of the snow already....it's only snowed a handful of times! i heard an official from nyc saying it too, we are all tired of the snow.....that's what happens when it doesn't melt i guess. here in nj people complain about the snow anytime, no matter how little we get, its too much for them......they all want to wake up in san diego. they got tired of this last snowstorm snow on the ground for 3 plus weeks.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said: In the blink of an eye you'll be attending his high school graduation. Trust me, it's that "quick." If there was an amen emoji available I would use it here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro just initialized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The temperature was 34° when the snow moved in. Thanks for looking further Don, the late-"Icehater" had an amazing memory of details for weather events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said: In the blink of an eye you'll be attending his high school graduation. Trust me, it's that "quick." yup. between 40 and 60 time flies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Euro running yet? It doesn't want to. It's holding out on having to continue to cave, especially to the GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 HREF is a hecs for NYC and LI. Over 20 inches. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MJO812 said: HREF is a hecs for NYC and LI. Over 20 inches. Got a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Got a map 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12z euro hr 9 slightly steeper western ridge. More phasing. Slightly higher heights out ahead. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Aifs came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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