NorthShoreWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, Nibor said: The surface low does a loop off our coastline. Some of our best storms have that feature. February 1978 looped! That's still my benchmark storm (no pun intended). I wouldn't mind experiencing that one again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The euro probably won't budge much I don’t think it matters that much. Under 48 hours I wouldn’t focus on euro too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This sucker is going to be a wild ride.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Nibor said: For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us. Yeah... I think a lot of guidance is discounting how far inland the banding will reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 AIFS 12z 6z and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 26 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well he certainly changed his tune! its ok to change your tune when you have new and better information; that's science. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Metasequoia said: Yeah... I think a lot of guidance is discounting how far inland the banding will reach. Agreed. The fundamentals of this are that the precip shield will be much broader than most globals have. You don't have a <980 low at the BM and have Allentown only at 4". I think the GFS has the right idea in terms of intensity and broadness of the precip shield. I would expect 12+" totals all the way to the LV. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, nflwxman said: Agreed. The fundamentals of this are that the precip shield will be much broader than most globals have. You don't have a <980 low at the BM and have Allentown only at 4". I think the GFS has the right idea in terms of intensity and broadness of the precip shield. I would expect 12+" totals all the way to the LV. Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Love seeing the large shift NW on the UKMET. Still the lowest however still a foot.With that deep low track in a near perfect spot I really would ignore the output. It looks underdone. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I don’t think it matters that much. Under 48 hours I wouldn’t focus on euro too much. It usually performs pretty well but if its right it would really mean an epic failure by every other model. Of course it hasn't been steady either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 After seeing much of 12z guidance I think I95 and just N/W might do the best (along with C/W LI), your starting to get 12" amounts 100 miles north of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It usually performs pretty well but if its right it would really mean an epic failure by every other model. Of course it hasn't been steady either I mean it had this storm as a total miss like 2 days ago so it doesn’t seem like it’s had a great handle on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GEFS 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 For a comparison, below are the 15z NBM maps from v.4.3 and v.5.0 (more realistic snow-liquid ratio): Version 5.0: Version 4.3: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS 12z 6z SE tick but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. I generally agree with this. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Northof78 said: After seeing much of 12z guidance I think I95 and just N/W might do the best (along with C/W LI), your starting to get 12" amounts 100 miles north of us... I think jersey shore is going to get rocked 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: I think jersey shore is going to get rocked They're locked in no matter what happens unless it somehow came onshore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: I think jersey shore is going to get rocked I think Monmouth (maybe N Ocean) good to go, but south of there not sure on temps, ratios, and axis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Don't think anyone cares about the JMA but the 12z is stronger than previous runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates. Didn’t someone in here say ratios would likely be 8 or 9-1 due to the strong winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates. Said this a few times yesterday. This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: Don't think anyone cares about the JMA but the 12z is stronger than previous runs It dropped off qpf quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality The groundhog slander too. I've never seen folks so indignant about winter weather in the middle of February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully. If an artic high is very strong, the cutoff can be very tight. I think 2016 was a good example of that. This storm doesn't seem to have that feature. Any mets want to weigh-in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 46 minutes ago, MANDA said: Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ. Looking at the same thing every run. What does NEPA look like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The groundhog slander too. I've never seen folks so indignant about winter weather in the middle of February Most normal people like warm weather 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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