The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

NAM back to reality 

Had to be expected. The numbers were wild. But still looks like wide spread 10-20. Can’t be too greedy lol

[TJW014]

I and @Volcanic Wintermay have a chance at breaking the all-time snow record here in Toms River. Current record was 24.5" from Boxing Day 2010. 24.0" was measured from the Blizzard of 1996. NWS has us for 27" currently

[SACRUS]

2/22 NAM 3k 

 

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

NAM back to reality 

Umm huh it has over 2” QPF for nyc…. Guys relax lol. 18-24” is still a good possibility 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

2/22 12z NAM
 

 

You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Had to be expected. The numbers were wild. But still looks like wide spread 10-20. Can’t be too greedy lol

its still 20-30 from Sandy Hook to Cape May...lol

[TKFJ]

Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill

 

It'll be all about the banding

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill

These almost always edge back east at the end and the NAM’s the NAM. Otherwise we just watch to see where the best banding sets up.

[Northof78]

Mostly a light wet snow here now

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, TKFJ said:

Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high

Mt Holly jumped from 8-16, 16-20, now 18-25. That was bold lol. But they’re the pros. We’ll see but right now not even the most aggressive models show that for my area. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

These almost always edge back east at the end and the NAM’s the NAM. Otherwise we just watch to see where the best banding sets up.

Also, those maps are 10:1. Someone will get in a monster band that drops 4” an hour with 14:1 ratios. Could be in NJ or Long Island 

[EW9616]

How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps?


.

[nycwinter]

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, EW9616 said:

How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps?


.

yeah probably up to .25 of liquid...the main show is later once the heavy rates move in

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, EW9616 said:

How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps?


.

Roughly

[Brasiluvsnow]

Why are people reacting as if we did not think that this might start off as rain in many places , it was 50 degrees yesterday ?

[SACRUS]

 

This is whats lost to rain/mix lesser rates which the nams accounted for

 

[CTNoreaster]

 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah probably up to .25 of liquid...the main show is later once the heavy rates move in

I've already started to accumulate on colder surfaces, just not pavement. 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Why are people reacting as if we did not think that this might start off as rain in many places , it was 50 degrees yesterday ?

I think we all knew that. But a little concerning to see some of the Mesos and NAM cutting the western extent and reducing totals that were admittedly insane to begin with. Starting to see that 10-20” alignment for most which would be incredible, even if it’s not “historic”

[NJwx85]

I started off as wet snow. Already a slushy coating on the cars.

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I think we all knew that. But a little concerning to see some of the Mesos and NAM cutting the western extent and reducing totals that were admittedly insane to begin with. Starting to see that 10-20” alignment for most which would be incredible, even if it’s not “historic”

Understood ,,,IMO the only thing that matters now is when does the real show begin and where those heavier bands establish themselves

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Picking up subsidence in between the 2 heaviest bands

there are going to be winners ( rising air - banding) and losers in this event (sinking air - possible light dry slot)there  will be a wide range of total snowfall amounts region wide IMO - and impossible at this point to tell exactly where - begin nowcasting....

[SHELEG]

Still plain rain in Brooklyn.

[Parterre]

I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps?

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Parterre said:

I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps?

dynamics - rising air =lifting creating its own cold enough temps

[snywx]

31 here w/ flakes flying. A dusting so far 

expecting 8-12” here 

[Parterre]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

dynamics

Could you elaborate a little?

[IrishRob17]

Just now, snywx said:

31 here w/ flakes flying. A dusting so far 

expecting 8-12” here 

Same here all around but it’s 34 currently 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Parterre said:

I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps?

storm is only going to get colder aloft, no warm nose. low pressure well south of us deepening rapidly as the bombogenesis phenomenon takes over.