TJW014 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I and @Volcanic Wintermay have a chance at breaking the all-time snow record here in Toms River. Current record was 24.5" from Boxing Day 2010. 24.0" was measured from the Blizzard of 1996. NWS has us for 27" currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/22 NAM 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM back to reality Umm huh it has over 2” QPF for nyc…. Guys relax lol. 18-24” is still a good possibility 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: 2/22 12z NAM You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: Had to be expected. The numbers were wild. But still looks like wide spread 10-20. Can’t be too greedy lol its still 20-30 from Sandy Hook to Cape May...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill It'll be all about the banding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill These almost always edge back east at the end and the NAM’s the NAM. Otherwise we just watch to see where the best banding sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Mostly a light wet snow here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, TKFJ said: Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high Mt Holly jumped from 8-16, 16-20, now 18-25. That was bold lol. But they’re the pros. We’ll see but right now not even the most aggressive models show that for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: These almost always edge back east at the end and the NAM’s the NAM. Otherwise we just watch to see where the best banding sets up. Also, those maps are 10:1. Someone will get in a monster band that drops 4” an hour with 14:1 ratios. Could be in NJ or Long Island 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EW9616 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, EW9616 said: How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps? . yeah probably up to .25 of liquid...the main show is later once the heavy rates move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, EW9616 said: How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps? . Roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Why are people reacting as if we did not think that this might start off as rain in many places , it was 50 degrees yesterday ? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This is whats lost to rain/mix lesser rates which the nams accounted for 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah probably up to .25 of liquid...the main show is later once the heavy rates move in I've already started to accumulate on colder surfaces, just not pavement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Why are people reacting as if we did not think that this might start off as rain in many places , it was 50 degrees yesterday ? I think we all knew that. But a little concerning to see some of the Mesos and NAM cutting the western extent and reducing totals that were admittedly insane to begin with. Starting to see that 10-20” alignment for most which would be incredible, even if it’s not “historic” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I started off as wet snow. Already a slushy coating on the cars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I think we all knew that. But a little concerning to see some of the Mesos and NAM cutting the western extent and reducing totals that were admittedly insane to begin with. Starting to see that 10-20” alignment for most which would be incredible, even if it’s not “historic” Understood ,,,IMO the only thing that matters now is when does the real show begin and where those heavier bands establish themselves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Picking up subsidence in between the 2 heaviest bands there are going to be winners ( rising air - banding) and losers in this event (sinking air - possible light dry slot)there will be a wide range of total snowfall amounts region wide IMO - and impossible at this point to tell exactly where - begin nowcasting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still plain rain in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parterre Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, Parterre said: I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps? dynamics - rising air =lifting creating its own cold enough temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 31 here w/ flakes flying. A dusting so far expecting 8-12” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parterre Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, NEG NAO said: dynamics Could you elaborate a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, snywx said: 31 here w/ flakes flying. A dusting so far expecting 8-12” here Same here all around but it’s 34 currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Parterre said: I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps? storm is only going to get colder aloft, no warm nose. low pressure well south of us deepening rapidly as the bombogenesis phenomenon takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: storm is only going to get colder aloft, no warm nose. low pressure well south of us deepening rapidly as the bombogenesis phenomenon takes over. this is a very complex set-up and there are going to be some surprises as we get further down the road today - possible extreme lifting - banding and on the flip side a large dry slot somewhere cutting off precip for hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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