The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Northof78]

3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

I think jersey shore is going to get rocked 

I think Monmouth (maybe N Ocean) good to go, but south of there not sure on temps, ratios, and axis 

[RU848789]

A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates.

[David-LI]

Don't think anyone cares about the JMA but the 12z is stronger than previous runs

[Stormlover74]

On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 

[TKFJ]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates.

Didn’t someone in here say ratios would likely be 8 or 9-1 due to the strong winds?

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates.

Said this a few times yesterday.  This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Don't think anyone cares about the JMA but the 12z is stronger than previous runs

It dropped off qpf quite a bit.

 

 

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 

The groundhog slander too. I've never seen folks so indignant about winter weather in the middle of February

[Metasequoia]

16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully. 

If an artic high is very strong, the cutoff can be very tight. I think 2016 was a good example of that.  This storm doesn't seem to have that feature. Any mets want to weigh-in?

[BoulderWX]

46 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA.  Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.

Looking at the same thing every run. What does NEPA look like lol

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The groundhog slander too. I've never seen folks so indignant about winter weather in the middle of February

Most normal people like warm weather

[MANDA]

I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold.

[Northof78]

Euro running yet?

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Euro running yet?

Not yet

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 

These people have to be under adult age. I can understand if our last snowiest winter was some time during the 20th century, but who could forget about 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, or 2014-15? Those were at least recent enough that people should remember how cold and snowy they were.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

These people have to be under adult age. I can understand if our last snowiest winter was some time during the 20th century, but who could forget about 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, or 2014-15? Those were at least recent enough that people should remember how cold and snowy they were.

Nah people have short term memories. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Diaper duty is getting to me

In the blink of an eye you'll be attending his high school graduation. Trust me, it's that "quick."

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

On a side note the general public seems to think this is our snowiest winter on record or something. Its amazing how prolonged cold and snow cover skews the reality 

i heard people this morning saying they were all sick of the snow already....it's only snowed a handful of times! i heard an official from nyc saying it too, we are all tired of the snow.....that's what happens when it doesn't melt i guess. here in nj people complain about the snow anytime, no matter how little we get, its too much for them......they all want to wake up in san diego. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Euro running yet?

No

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

i heard people this morning saying they were all sick of the snow already....it's only snowed a handful of times! i heard an official from nyc saying it too, we are all tired of the snow.....that's what happens when it doesn't melt i guess. here in nj people complain about the snow anytime, no matter how little we get, its too much for them......they all want to wake up in san diego. 

they got tired of this last snowstorm snow on the ground for 3 plus weeks..

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

In the blink of an eye you'll be attending his high school graduation. Trust me, it's that "quick."

If there was an amen emoji available I would use it here.

[Nibor]

Euro just initialized.

[Freezing Drizzle]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. The temperature was 34° when the snow moved in.

Thanks for looking further Don, the late-"Icehater" had an amazing memory of details for weather events.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

In the blink of an eye you'll be attending his high school graduation. Trust me, it's that "quick."

yup. between 40 and 60 time flies.

[Irish]

11 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Euro running yet?

It doesn't want to. It's holding out on having to continue to cave, especially to the GFS!  

[MJO812]

HREF is a hecs for NYC and LI. Over 20 inches.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, MJO812 said:

HREF is a hecs for NYC and LI. Over 20 inches.

Got a map

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Got a map

 

[Nibor]

12z euro hr 9 slightly steeper western ridge. More phasing. Slightly higher heights out ahead.

[Stormlover74]

Aifs came west