The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Much obliged. Perhaps he meant that it was above freezing for an extended period during the snowfall before the lows for the day were reached.

I think it started out near freezing early that Sunday morning.  At some point it dropped into the 20s.  Some of the old newspaper photos from western LI show insane drifting.  

Woke up to about 5" of fresh powdery snow this morning near Jackson, NH.  About to head for the LI ferry; we're catching both storms 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, WXNewton said:

12z NAM Kurchea 

Honestly this feels somewhat realistic not necessarily in totals but in terms of  how jackpot will go. The best storm dynamics def favor long island and Jersey coast but you’ll get surprise banding in spots further west that will bump up totals in some areas. 

[Nibor]

For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think it started out near freezing early that Sunday morning.  At some point it dropped into the 20s.  Some of the old newspaper photos from western LI show insane drifting.  

Woke up to about 5" of fresh powdery snow this morning near Jackson, NH.  About to head for the LI ferry; we're catching both storms 

Yes. The temperature was 34° when the snow moved in.

[EastonSN+]

Although its clear its going to be a beast, the big item too iron out is the diff. Between the US models which have the low further north than the rest of the field.

The RAP/NAM/GFS/HRRR are north and 20 plus potential

The remaining are a bit further south and 12 plus.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Given the positive adjustments of Ukie and GGEM I’d say 12-18 for NYC likely. GFS/NAM likely too extreme but Euro is not the model it once was where I think it beats out everything. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

imagine the meltdowns if the 6z Euro verified...

Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us.

It’s very hard to forecast banding but there should be multiple bands that pivot in. Just look at this beautiful mid level lift.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Although its clear its going to be a beast, the big item too iron out is the diff. Between the US models which have the low further north than the rest of the field.

The RAP/NAM/GFS/HRRR are north and 20 plus potential

The remaining are a bit further south and 12 plus.

 

And we still may not know until tomorrow morning

[TKFJ]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in.

GFS and NAM are likely overdoing totals. I think the accumulations put out by the NWS are a good range. Maybe a slight adjustment upward, but those goofy totals put out by those two models aren’t likely to verify. 
 

12-18, maybe 2 feet in Eastern sections with some jackpots

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us.

Agree although if it sets up in Catskills HV may get subsidence/shafted but that is a reality of these storms sometimes . 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. 

The euro probably won't budge much

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

The surface low does a loop off our coastline. Some of our best storms have that feature. 

February 1978 looped!

That's still my benchmark storm (no pun intended).  I wouldn't mind experiencing that one again.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

The euro probably won't budge much

I don’t think it matters that much. Under 48 hours I wouldn’t focus on euro too much. 

[EasternLI]

This sucker is going to be a wild ride..

[Metasequoia]

8 minutes ago, Nibor said:

For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us.

Yeah... I think a lot of guidance is discounting how far inland the banding will reach.

[EastonSN+]

AIFS

12z

6z and 0z

[weatherpruf]

26 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Well he certainly changed his tune! 

its ok to change your tune when you have new and better information; that's science. 

[nflwxman]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

Yeah... I think a lot of guidance is discounting how far inland the banding will reach.

Agreed. The fundamentals of this are that the precip shield will be much broader than most globals have. You don't have a <980 low at the BM and have Allentown only at 4".

I think the GFS has the right idea in terms of intensity and broadness of the precip shield. I would expect 12+" totals all the way to the LV.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, nflwxman said:

Agreed. The fundamentals of this are that the precip shield will be much broader than most globals have. You don't have a <980 low at the BM and have Allentown only at 4".

I think the GFS has the right idea in terms of intensity and broadness of the precip shield. I would expect 12+" totals all the way to the LV.

Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully. 

[Jt17]

Love seeing the large shift NW on the UKMET. Still the lowest however still a foot.

With that deep low track in a near perfect spot I really would ignore the output. It looks underdone.


.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don’t think it matters that much. Under 48 hours I wouldn’t focus on euro too much. 

It usually performs pretty well but if its right it would really mean an epic failure by every other model. Of course it hasn't been steady either

[Northof78]

After seeing much of 12z guidance I think I95 and just N/W might do the best (along with C/W LI), your starting to get 12" amounts 100 miles north of us...

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It usually performs pretty well but if its right it would really mean an epic failure by every other model. Of course it hasn't been steady either

I mean it had this storm as a total miss like 2 days ago so it doesn’t seem like it’s had a great handle on this storm. 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS

12z

6z

[donsutherland1]

For a comparison, below are the 15z NBM maps from v.4.3 and v.5.0 (more realistic snow-liquid ratio):

Version 5.0:

Version 4.3:

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS

12z

6z

SE tick but not much

[Wxoutlooksblog]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. 

I generally agree with this.

WX/PT

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

After seeing much of 12z guidance I think I95 and just N/W might do the best (along with C/W LI), your starting to get 12" amounts 100 miles north of us...

I think jersey shore is going to get rocked 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

I think jersey shore is going to get rocked 

They're locked in no matter what happens unless it somehow came onshore