bluewave Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, SleetStormNJ said: Rahway came in with a huge total, was challenging to trust measurements with that one because drifting was so intense. That was our last top tier KU event in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: This is still playing it pretty conservative for our area. I told my Wife "12 to 18 inches" and she said, "In your dreams" LOL I’m here in Pearl River, New York, one of the rare few times I’m glad to be in the most southern and eastern part of Rockland County. Looks like every mile south and east can make a big difference with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We all did great with that one but the jackpot was west of the Hudson in NJ. I was not living here for that storm, was in far s.e. Morris County and I ended up with 16". Meanwhile a 15-20 min drive to my east that had 25-30". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, bluewave said: That was our last top tier KU event in December. When is the last west of forecast coastal - i truly cant remember in the last 7 - 8 years.? When it used to be a routine occurrence. Not a southwest flow event - i mean true miller a/b or c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I got 25 inches. My area was a mess with cars stucke everywhere. it's still a mess here with large piles everywhere-even another 6-8 inches will make them even bigger and be around til may lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, steve392 said: Gunna suck clearing this At least no sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeimonas Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I like the "high end" amounts (10% chance) from Upton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: I was not living here for that storm, was in far s.e. Morris County and I ended up with 16". Meanwhile a 15-20 min drive to my east that had 25-30". What a nasty western cutoff from nothing to glory in about 60 miles 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We all did great with that one but the jackpot was west of the Hudson in NJ.I had 30 inches on Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: I was not living here for that storm, was in far s.e. Morris County and I ended up with 16". Meanwhile a 15-20 min drive to my east that had 25-30". That was a true Miller A with a big, deep trough that cutoff over the TN Valley, however the abrupt cutoff is similar to what we will see with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, steve392 said: Gunna suck clearing this It’ll probably have the same water content as Jan 25th’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: I was not living here for that storm, was in far s.e. Morris County and I ended up with 16". Meanwhile a 15-20 min drive to my east that had 25-30". I had 7" vs 20+ 20 miles east... this storm reminds me of that one but not as powerful, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I had 30 inches on Staten Island31 in Belmar where i worked -- it was a snowpocalypse --- the difference between the impact of 24 (where i lived in northern monmouth county and 31 in southern Mo Co was noticeable --- abandoned or stuck cars everywhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Let’s take guesses. Is anyone seeing 2’ from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, njwx7 said: SREF looking good! 978 low-pressure is pretty strong, that's comparable to a CAT 1 cane intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: What a nasty western cutoff from nothing to glory in about 60 miles Less than that. Eastern Orange County with 26 inches, western Orange County with 4 inches. That was less than 30 miles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, Xeimonas said: I like the "high end" amounts (10% chance) from Upton This is also acceptable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM is significantly more phased 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: When is the last west of forecast coastal - i truly cant remember in the last 7 - 8 years.? When it used to be a routine occurrence. Not a southwest flow event - i mean true miller a/b or c. I believe the 2-1-21 KU event and the follow up system about a week later. But the Canadian did have the wild further west run about week before which was close to what verified. Even though the Euro was too suppressed for both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 500s look great. We are about to get NAM'D! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Let’s take guesses. Is anyone seeing 2’ from this? lol I see we're in the phase now where expectations get set so high that some people will be sad on Monday morning even if they get 19". And I include me in 'some people', because once I see those crazy numbers this close to the event, I start to cash them in. That's a me problem. But not a just me problem I bet lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 My first call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 54 minutes ago, Uniblab said: Were you weatherfeen? yes it's me feen, a.k.a tonylovesnow. Sorry if i ever offended anyone im a new man and ive changed into a whole new still annoying but a bit more mature. @TriPolyes that was my picture i floated around on twitter. Cause i do believe if we tuck a little more it could realistically mimic Boxing day blizzard at least to a point! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We have a storm watch people up to 55KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I said this in the MA forum but figured I’d send it here too… I believe there is potential for 12"+ for coastal regions from Delaware to Mass, but I am honestly decently concerned about a potential rug pull I-95 N and W with this one. A storm as intense as this is likely to have a more consolidated precipitation shield which slams the coast, but can make it difficult for those bands to pivot farther inland. There is legitimate risk the phase does not occur until north of our latitude unless we see more digging upstream. The inverted trough is a wild card that could make up for it in spots though. Not to mention, surface temperatures are marginal with this one, and we could see a period of white rain cut down on totals. Hoping for the best, but I see clear warning signs and parallels to storms like January 2015, January 2018, January 2022, Boxing Day, etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 32 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Latest NBM Still ongoing, friend: While on the subject, I wrote to Don and someone else about how snowfall is determined by the NBM several weeks ago. For clarity, I mentioned that the weights (available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf) temporally vary. On top of time-varying weights, the ensemble members incorporated into the mean are lagged by ~1-2 cycles (depends on modeling system)... To see which models/cycles are included by the NBM at any forecast time, you can use this link: https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard Additionally, it takes ~1 cycle to post-process the NBM. Therefore, the most up-to-date NBM snowfall product will have a lag of ~2-3 cycles. This is where the confusion is imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 This should be NW of 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Maybe this storm will end any debate as to whether this was a good winter or not. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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