2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the PDO may start to trend positive decadally when the Summer Arctic ice catches up with its previous trend or starts "evening out all this warm season cold anomaly". What do you think @40/70 Benchmark?

We've definitely already peaked as far as the Pacific cold phase goes....likely pretty near neutral for the coming winter (slightly negative probably favored), but I still think it will be early next decade, around the solar min, when we truly switch into the new warm phase. Like a very big winter right after the solar min, as we begin the ascending phase.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

That's definitely true here in CO. Many of our biggest storms have been early/late in El Nino winters.

I could be wrong, but I believe a strong El Nino is traditionally better compared to avg for Colorado than it is in the east. Plus of course, we know how Denver can rack up September and May snow with 70F in January .

While measurable snow is normal here in the Detroit area from November thru April, its a more traditional curve, with the snowiest month being January followed closely by February (each month over 12"), with both November and April each averaging just under 2". A common trend seen in strong El Ninos is well ABOVE avg snowfall in November, followed by below avg snow in December. Once you get to January results get more mixed.

[George001]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country. 

Depends on where you live. For my area weak El Niño is the sweet spot, and really weak ENSO is best (the top 2 ENSO states are weak El Niño and weak La Niña). ENSO has a pretty weak correlation though here. The only time I really lower expectations for winter due to ENSO here is if it’s a super Nino. I’ve been saying for a while I would rather roll the dice with a strong La Niña than a super Nino here. I would bet on the 27-28 winter producing more snow here than the 26-27 winter. All we really know for 27-28 is it won’t be a super Nino, since 26-27 will be and we don’t see multi year super ninos. I do think there is an elevated chance for a strong La Niña in 27-28 like @PhiEaglesfan712 is saying, but it’s not a guarantee.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country. 

What if I told you that the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century happened during a strong el nino year? And we did it with Nino 1+2 being close to neutral?

But for there to be a cold winter in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic in a strong or super el nino, one would think the record warmth would be centered on the PNW or even southwest Canada (like in 2009-10, when record warm temperatures affected the Winter Olympics in Vancouver).

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Depends on where you live. For my area weak El Niño is the sweet spot, and really weak ENSO is best (the top 2 ENSO states are weak El Niño and weak La Niña). ENSO has a pretty weak correlation though here. The only time I really lower expectations for winter due to ENSO here is if it’s a super Nino. I’ve been saying for a while I would rather roll the dice with a strong La Niña than a super Nino here. I would bet on the 27-28 winter producing more snow here than the 26-27 winter. All we really know for 27-28 is it won’t be a super Nino, since 26-27 will be and we don’t see multi year super ninos. I do think there is an elevated chance for a strong La Niña in 27-28 like @PhiEaglesfan712 is saying, but it’s not a guarantee.

Yeah, the only time a robust el nino held for two years was 1986-88, and that el nino dissipated quickly in the 2nd year, setting up the stage for one of the strongest la ninas on record in 1988-89. Prior to the mid-2010s el nino, it was almost a certainty that a strong or super el nino was followed by a strong la nina starting from 1972-73:

1973 - Yes

1983 - No (but we did get a multiple-year la nina, which peaked in the high weak/low moderate)

1988 - Yes

1992 - No (but a major volcano happened, and that might have screwed things up)

1998 - Yes, multi-year strong la nina

2010 - Yes

Of course, 2016 and 2024 weren't followed by a strong la nina. Do we think it will happen 3 times in a row that we don't get a strong la nina after a robust el nino?

[MarcmmKU]

The upcoming east coast heatwave and the recent western snowfalls is a canonical la nina feature. Yet another sign we are not yet being influenced by + enso.

[MarcmmKU]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing I’m very, very confident in as far as winter, is a much warmer than normal to “torch” December this year because of what myself, @GaWx and you already discussed….the very strong correlation over the last 46 years (since 1980) of +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers being a slam dunk signal for warmth…literally 6 out of the last 6 were warm….

 

 

 

 

Huh what are you talking about? December 1997, 2004, and 2018 were all +QBO, +ENSO and below or near normal in new england. Incredible that you can spread misinfo like this and get away without anyone calling you out.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

The upcoming east coast heatwave and the recent western snowfalls is a canonical la nina feature. Yet another sign we are not yet being influenced by + enso.

The present more Niña-like pattern is probably being enhanced by how much warmer the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent to around the Dateline is than all the other previous super El Niños at this time of year. So we get a westward extension of the forcing overlapping with the El Niño standing wave. 

Notice how the dates of the record warmth going back to March in the East coincided with the forcing moving from the Indian Ocean to the WPAC. Plus the interaction between the record SSTs in the Mid-latitudes could also be influencing the pattern. Even the state of the Arctic could be playing a role. 

The extent of the +30C pool is larger than 2023 at this time when we were having a much cooler El Nino-like pattern from the late spring into summer.

So we are getting a head start on the Niña-like influences which waited until closer to the winter in December 2015 and January 2024 to occur. 

+30 C warm pool expansion since the late 1990s during the late spring of developing super El Niños

 

[csnavywx]

30 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

The upcoming east coast heatwave and the recent western snowfalls is a canonical la nina feature. Yet another sign we are not yet being influenced by + enso.

GLAAM just dropped from record highs to slightly above normal. I think we're at risk of ruthlessly extrapolating some short term mean reverting variability here. It's definitely coupled to the atmosphere. Hell, there's a standing wave set up in the tropical Pacific already.

[csnavywx]

The entire warm pool is being discharged.

Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. 

This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.

[snowman19]

NOAA has raised the scale again:

[MarcmmKU]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Wrong! You’re an idiot. Delete your account

What part is wrong? December 1997 and 2004 were indeed +QBO, + ENSO, and below normal. 2018 near normal. Refute the claim. These are numbers not opinions. You can be warm biased without literally lying like you currently are. 

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The entire warm pool is being discharged.

Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. 

This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.

Backlash nina period won't be good for some of us either so...emotional capital for the year (or two) after? Lol

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Huh what are you talking about? December 1997, 2004, and 2018 were all +QBO, +ENSO and below or near normal in new england. Incredible that you can spread misinfo like this and get away without anyone calling you out.

He does this every year. He loves to bash anyone who disagrees with him.  Ignore him and post away.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

The upcoming east coast heatwave and the recent western snowfalls is a canonical la nina feature. Yet another sign we are not yet being influenced by + enso.

Is canonical a popular word now ? I heard that all winter last year but it wasnt a normal la Nina winter.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So you’re calling @GaWx a liar too? Moron

Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.

[frontranger8]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I could be wrong, but I believe a strong El Nino is traditionally better compared to avg for Colorado than it is in the east. Plus of course, we know how Denver can rack up September and May snow with 70F in January .

While measurable snow is normal here in the Detroit area from November thru April, its a more traditional curve, with the snowiest month being January followed closely by February (each month over 12"), with both November and April each averaging just under 2". A common trend seen in strong El Ninos is well ABOVE avg snowfall in November, followed by below avg snow in December. Once you get to January results get more mixed.

Yeah, strong Ninos almost always deliver at least one 12"+ storm here. Most commonly late Oct-mid Dec and then Mar/Apr.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Backlash nina period won't be good for some of us either so...emotional capital for the year (or two) after? Lol

Our last backlash nina period had one great snow season (2010-11) and a 5-month torch from November-March (2011-12).

[snowman19]

The new CANSIPS

[PhiEaglesfan712]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.

1997 was close to neutral

2004 was close to neutral

2018 was a modest +QBO. I'll give him that one. That was a meh December (and winter overall), not an all out blow torch, like the other 5 +QBO/el nino Decembers.

[Yanksfan]

56 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The entire warm pool is being discharged.

Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. 

This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.

That’s what I’m banking on. As long as the ElNino from hell manages to slay the west pacific hot blob dragon,  I’ll gladly sacrifice next winter to appease the weather gods.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

He said the fact that we’ve had 6 +QBO/El Nino Decembers since 1980 is a lie

+QBO Nino Decembers: 1982 (warm temps), 1987 (warm), 1994 (warm), 2006 (warm), 2015 (warm), and 2018 (normal).

I count 1997’s 0.78 as neutral QBO

2004’s +2.45 and falling is pretty neutral

 So, I agree on 6 Nino Dec +QBOs since 1980. And all but one were warm. 2018 was NN. Favors warmth in Dec for sure!

And 1997/2004 (neutral QBO) weren’t warm.

Edit: Dec of 1957 also had +QBO and was warm! But Dec of 1963 (moderate Nino) and Dec of 1969 (weak Nino) were cold despite +QBO.

**Edit 2: If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now.

@PhiEaglesfan712

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Backlash nina period won't be good for some of us either so...emotional capital for the year (or two) after? Lol

This year was basically fine. Just need to keep it to a low simmer and slowly reconstitute the warm pool over time. Maybe throw in a cooler NATL spell that can reinforce trades and pop an actual CP Nino or two. We're at least very very likely to see some very strong Arctic warming into early winter '27-28 (response up there tends to lag lower latitudes quite a bit).

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

This year was basically fine. Just need to keep it to a low simmer and slowly reconstitute the warm pool over time. Maybe throw in a cooler NATL spell that can reinforce trades and pop an actual CP Nino or two. We're at least very very likely to see some very strong Arctic warming into early winter '27-28 (response up there tends to lag lower latitudes quite a bit).

Which year between 10-11 or 11-12 had a very strong Arctic warming?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, csnavywx said:

The entire warm pool is being discharged.

Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. 

This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.

I don't understand how you have reached the conclusion that the mid Atlantic will not muster so much as a moderate event....Jesus, what is it with inability of the majority of this forum to accept any dialectical nuance.  It's either ALL or NOTHING. The reality is that the coastal plane has a decent shot of a major event this year and history dictates that. 

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how you have reached the conclusion that the mid Atlantic will not muster so much as a moderate event....Jesus, what is it with inability of the majority of this forum to accept any dialectical nuance.  It's either ALL or NOTHING. The reality is that the coastal plane has a decent shot of a major event this year and history dictates that. 

I think csnavy was hoping for a moderate Nino earlier this year before it was obvious that there wasn’t going to be? Don’t think snowstorm is being inferred here. Nobody can say whether there will be one or not 

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how you have reached the conclusion that the mid Atlantic will not muster so much as a moderate event....Jesus, what is it with inability of the majority of this forum to accept any dialectical nuance.  It's either ALL or NOTHING. The reality is that the coastal plane has a decent shot of a major event this year and history dictates that. 

Was referring to hoping for a moderate Nino event initially. Quickly became evident in March that wasn't going to be the case.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The difference between Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super Nino is the same. In weaker events, the ENSO signal is weaker so other things dominate more, more randomness. Caveat being that East vs West based event does make a difference. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

+QBO Nino Decembers: 1982 (warm temps), 1987 (warm), 1994 (warm), 2006 (warm), 2015 (warm), and 2018 (normal).

I count 1997’s 0.78 as neutral QBO

2004’s +2.45 and falling is pretty neutral

 So, I agree on 6 Nino Dec +QBOs since 1980. And all but one were warm. 2018 was NN. Favors warmth in Dec for sure!

And 1997/2004 (neutral QBO) weren’t warm.

Edit: Dec of 1957 also had +QBO and was warm! But Dec of 1963 (moderate Nino) and Dec of 1969 (weak Nino) were cold despite +QBO.

**Edit 2: If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now.

@PhiEaglesfan712

Cold ENSO/Strong -QBO gave us a cold December last year too. 2021 was the exception, but it works in reverse too (cold ENSO/-QBO is cold). Even in Dec 2021 there was a >+300dm block in the N. Pacific. Move that 250 miles NE and it would have been cold. 

Of course the Nov Stratosphere warming last year was the reason. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've definitely already peaked as far as the Pacific cold phase goes....likely pretty near neutral for the coming winter (slightly negative probably favored), but I still think it will be early next decade, around the solar min, when we truly switch into the new warm phase. Like a very big winter right after the solar min, as we begin the ascending phase.

I think the Arctic cold this warm season will serve as a catalyst to keep the PDO more negative in comparison to ENSO this year. It's a pattern. Still have July-Sept to go though, so it could change, but since the Solar Max it's been a pretty sustained Summer +AO pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Was referring to hoping for a moderate Nino event initially. Quickly became evident in March that wasn't going to be the case.

Oh, geez....so sorry. My bad.....yea, I held out some hope initially, but quickly became clear it was not to be.