2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the 2014 shut out.

The subtropical North Atlantic is the warmest on record for June 26th. 
 

 

[snowman19]

Big amplified MJO wave push into phase 7 come early next month. This is in addition to the expected explosion of typhoons in the PAC. No doubt yet another huge WWB and subsequent DWKW is coming. +IOD expected to pop come mid-July. More warming to come. Increasing confidence that we are into a super El Niño by the time met fall starts (9/1)

[raindancewx]

Progression of actual weather still looks pretty different to 2023. That was a very cold month in the Southwest. It's been fairly warm this June v. averages.

Europe had a few major heat waves with the recent El Ninos - 2015, 2018, 2023 all had them I believe.

 

[mitchnick]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 These are progging 4 to get way up to +2.4 to +2.5, which is way higher than the record high of only +1.5 (‘23-4), +1.4 (‘15-6), +1.2 (‘09-10), +1.1 (‘68-9), +1.0 (‘18-9). Even the relatives for ‘26 on CFS/Euro are way up at ~+2.0!

‘97-8 and ‘82-3 were only +0.7!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki. 

[mitchnick]

Sun has become pretty active again contrary to your typical transition to a minimum. Let's see if that continues.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

[snowman19]

Not to take anything away from the Nino region SSTs, in particular in regions 3.4 and 1+2, which have been breaking records for warmth for weeks now, the subsurface is just blazing and still warming. Once these transiting (new) DWKWs reach the EPAC and augment what’s there now, subsurface anomalies reaching +12C in the next couple of months would not surprise me. The thermocline in the EPAC continues to deepen dramatically from the full trade wind reversal and the nonstop WWBs/westerlies

Thermocline:

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

@donsutherland1  Very strong coupling now (ocean-atmosphere/Bjerknes feedback) showing up….the ERWs (equatorial rossby waves) are constructively interfering with El Niño. Also, classic Nino standing wave convection/-OLR, strong westerlies and consistent -SOI

 

 

The Rossby Wave  is going kick off a strong Phoon easpcially if the Euro were to be right on the 0Z run today in the upcoming days,that would potentially be catastrophic if it were to take that route for Southern Japan as it heads into the Sea of Japan,tho this far out we dont know what troughs will even steer it

[qg_omega]

On 6/27/2026 at 8:33 AM, mitchnick said:

Sux to be those other places. But most are centered around the I95 concrete jungle heat island. No surprise there and to be expected as the development has not ended.

its been record warmth throughout the country and its just the start

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its been record warmth throughout the country and its just the start

Good news

[jaxjagman]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Big amplified MJO wave push into phase 7 come early next month. This is in addition to the expected explosion of typhoons in the PAC. No doubt yet another huge WWB and subsequent DWKW is coming. +IOD expected to pop come mid-July. More warming to come. Increasing confidence that we are into a super El Niño by the time met fall starts (9/1)

You for sure could be right.But it seems like the MJO is going to get destrucive interference from this Roosby Wave and this KW in the upcoming days epecially when the EWB ancounters into the 2nd week of huly seemingly,As this RW moves west it seems very possible the MJO signal  will strengten just east of the IDL,this is why you see SOME RMMS killing the MJO signal,towards the COD from the WP,seems possible the MJO stays into the WP longer and possibly stronger

[LakePaste25]

59 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You for sure could be right.But it seems like the MJO is going to get destrucive interference from this Roosby Wave and this KW in the upcoming days epecially when the EWB ancounters into the 2nd week of huly seemingly,As this RW moves west it seems very possible the MJO signal  will strengten just east of the IDL,this is why you see SOME RMMS killing the MJO signal,towards the COD from the WP,seems possible the MJO stays into the WP longer and possibly stronger

Where are you seeing an EWB? Do you have any charts showing it? 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Where are you seeing an EWB? Do you have any charts showing it? 

Its not like we seen last month,in the upcoming weeks into July the WWB is getting combatted with EWB.Even the EPS shows this to some extent.But this still could have destructive interference with the MJO signal with RW AND KW,regradless the chances of MJO moving out of the WP seems real to me,its not going to happen for awhile

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @LakePaste25 @bluewave @donsutherland1 @raindancewx  @BlizzardWx @Isotherm @roardog  @jbenedet @csnavywx @Stormchaserchuck1

Nino region 1+2: 

 
20°C Isotherm: the 20°C layer that separates the colder waters from the warmer ones in the deep-sea profile (up to 500 meters depth) where #ElNiño develops.
Over the last 3 months, that layer has been becoming almost horizontal (a sign of an intense event). The slope of the thermocline today is comparable to the one observed at a similar time in 1997. This can be seen in the measurements of how deeply it is submerged compared to its normal values at 95°W (which is the eastern boundary of the TAO buoys that measure the temperatures of the first 500 meters of ocean depth and the gateway to warming in the Niño 1+2 Region or where we measure #ElNiñoCostero). Currently, it is about 50 meters below its usual position. It is observed as it appeared in 1997 and exceeding in depth all intermediate #ElNiño events.
Two other relevant observations: the first is the surface displacement of the warmest waters of the equatorial Pacific, which at the start of the animation were in the western basin and today are moving through the central Pacific (see movements of the 29°C and 30°C isotherms at the surface). The second: a new warm Kelvin Wave forming embedded within the far western end of the large subsurface warm water anomaly under 170°W. In the animation, I have slowed down the speed of the last frames so that it can be appreciated how the mass of warm water sinks in the "tail" of the larger warm mass. There is the warm Kelvin Wave or downwelling wave.
Currently, the continuous sinking of the 20°C isotherm has already produced an anomaly of +8°C at the eastern end (near South America) of the temperature profile. In 1997 we reached values between +11°C and +12°C. Soon we will see a 9°C anomaly appear within the +8°C one.
This is the highest heat content in June between 180° and 100°W since the +2.25°C of June 1997. To date, we are at approximately +2.10°C.

https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2069873336973242553?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki. 

Good consensus on basin-wide super-event.

 

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki. 

What's with the cool pocket off of the northeast. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

its been record warmth throughout the country and its just the start

Literally the last 2 weeks has been colder than average every day here.

[michsnowfreak]

On 6/27/2026 at 7:57 AM, mitchnick said:

Harrisburg Capital City Airport is -.8 thru June 26th. It's been closer to  Niño around here. The heat waves this year have been transient or you wouldn't have a BN number thru the first 26 days of the month. Since this one won't start until Tuesday, the month will still likely end BN. My hunch is this heat will be transient again, but we'll have to see.

Summers preceding El Ninos are typically comfortable (in the mean). As this June has been. The implying that it doesn't get hot is ridiculous. Were actually due for a legit heatwave.its gonna be hot and humid, and likely transient. 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Past history with those analohyears always

Seems like right now 82-83 would be a focal point and not 97-98,when looking at analogs.97-98 had one of the 3 stronest DMI'S on record the last half centurry.JMA isnt showing this with it and its esembles right now,just one.But who know,DMI peaks into fall,maybe that one will be right..lol

[GaWx]

 The Arctic mean temp. N of 80N, helped by a +AO, still didn’t reach freezing as it actually cooled very slightly yesterday! The prior latest on record (back to 1958) to first exceed 0C was June 20th (2013). Will it finally exceed 0C before the end of the month? Time’s running out and the model consensus has BN temps persisting. It had come within 0.35C on June 27th and then yesterday fell a little to 0.47C away:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Arctic mean temp. N of 80N, helped by a +AO, still didn’t reach freezing as it actually cooled very slightly yesterday! The prior latest on record (back to 1958) to first exceed 0C was June 20th (2013). Will it finally exceed 0C before the end of the month? Time’s running out and the model consensus has BN temps persisting. It had come within 0.35C on June 27th and then yesterday fell a little to 0.47C away:

Summer cold in the Arctic since the 2012 arctic ice melt low has really been phenomenal! Anyone want to offer a theory on why that is? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Summer cold in the Arctic since the 2012 arctic ice melt low has really been phenomenal! Anyone want to offer a theory on why that is? 

Probably some sort of feedback between the atmosphere and melting ice.

[bluewave]

The record heatwave into the 100s to start July in the East is another example of how the seasonal models don’t handle long range Maritime Continent forcing very well especially when it’s out of phase with the ENSO forcing.

The long range July forecast was just focused on the developing super El Niño forcing. This has been a common theme as the more recent forecasts show much stronger Maritime Continent forcing than the seasonal long range forecast did.

So just looking at the seasonal guidance you wouldn’t get any indication that there would be a 594 DM+ heat dome in the East producing record highs over 100°.

So we often get multiple regions of forcing matching the locations of the warmest +30C SSTs. 
 

Old July seasonal forecast

 

New July forecast 

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record heatwave into the 100s to start July is another example of how the seasonal models don’t handle long range Maritime Continent forcing very well especially when it’s out of phase with the ENSO forcing.
The long range July forecast was just focused on the developing super El Niño forcing. This has been a common theme as the more recent forecasts show much stronger Maritime Continent forcing than the seasonal long range forecast did. 

So we often get multiple regions of forcing matching the locations of the warmest +30C SSTs. 
 
Old July seasonal forecast

 
New July forecast 

If my guess is correct that changes come fall once the warm pool gets pushed way east (30C isotherm to 120E) from all the big WWBs/westerlies we are continuing to see this summer and the MC convection gets suppressed/subsidence from the +IOD forcing 

[LakePaste25]

The wave started near the Arabian Sea and has been slowly moving east into the MC. It has been destructively interfered with by the Nino and is only able to contribute when it reached the MC because the +AAM temporarily relaxed. Would the west pacific waters in 1997, 1982, 1972 have been cool enough at this point in the summer to stop this forcing? I disagree. 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The wave started near the Arabian Sea and has been slowly moving east into the MC. It has been destructively interfered with by the Nino and is only able to contribute when it reached the MC because the +AAM temporarily relaxed. Would the west pacific waters in 1997, 1982, 1972 have been cool enough at this point in the summer to stop this forcing? I disagree. 

The Indian Ocean into West Pacific wasn’t anywhere near as warm back in 1972, 1982, and 1997 during those developing super El Niños.

This is one of the reasons that those years didn’t feature the record warmth that we have from had from March, April, May,June, and into July in the East.

The other reason is probably the record mid latitude SST warmth that didn’t exist back in those days. All of these features including the much warmer planet and drought are contributing factors.  
 

 

 

 

Record heat every month starting back in March with new monthly maxes tied or set in May.
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1843-05-01 through 2026-06-27DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

 

3/10	82 in 2026	81 in 2016	76 in 2006
3/11	82 in 2026	75 in 2021	71 in 1977

 

4/15

91 in 2026

88 in 1960

87 in 1941

 

5/19

99 in 2026

98 in 1962

93 in 2017+

 

6/11

97 in 2026

96 in 2000

96 in 1984

 

•  

[LakePaste25]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Indian Ocean into West Pacific wasn’t anywhere near as warm back in 1972, 1982, and 1997 during those developing super El Niños.

This is one of the reasons that those years didn’t feature the record warmth that we have from had from March, April, May,June, and into July in the East.

The other reason is probably the record mid latitude SST warmth that didn’t exist back in those days. All of these features including the much warmer planet and drought are contributing factors.  
 

 

 

 

Record heat every month starting back in March with new monthly maxes tied or set in May.
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1843-05-01 through 2026-06-27DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

 

3/10	82 in 2026	81 in 2016	76 in 2006
3/11	82 in 2026	75 in 2021	71 in 1977

 

4/15

91 in 2026

88 in 1960

87 in 1941

 

5/19

99 in 2026

98 in 1962

93 in 2017+

 

6/11

97 in 2026

96 in 2000

96 in 1984

 

•  

But how much warmth can we say is because of “unusually strong MC forcing for a Nino”and not plain climate change? Every ridge these days seems to be record breaking. It’s not like it was 65-70 every day during the previous super Ninos - we had warmups during those too, but since we had a much cooler baseline, they did not set records. I just don’t think we can default to blaming the MC every time or pretend that MC forcing never existed at all during Ninos back then. 

This developing Nino also seems to lack a -NAO but since our sample size is pretty small it may be less correlated to begin with. 

I’ll agree that if this winter we see some major P4-6 activity like we did in 15-16 again then something is up. I’m just not ready to say it’s a permanent feature.

[GaWx]

 The CFS is still forecasting Nino 4 to reach a +2.5C monthly peak, which is not at all indicative of a relatively severely E based Nino like 1997, when it peaked at a mere +0.7C. It would even obliterate the monthly record peak of +1.5 of 2023-4 as well as the +1.4 of 2015-6, +1.1 of 2009-10, +0.9 of 1957-8, +0.9 of 1991-2, +0.8 of 1965-6, and +0.7 of 1972-3:

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

But how much warmth can we say is because of “unusually strong MC forcing for a Nino”and not plain climate change? Every ridge these days seems to be record breaking. It’s not like it was 65-70 every day during the previous super Ninos - we had warmups during those too, but since we had a much cooler baseline, they did not set records. I just don’t think we can default to blaming the MC every time or pretend that MC forcing never existed at all during Ninos back then. 

This developing Nino also seems to lack a -NAO but since our sample size is pretty small it may be less correlated to begin with. 

I’ll agree that if this winter we see some major P4-6 activity like we did in 15-16 again then something is up. I’m just not ready to say it’s a permanent feature.

I deal more in persistence rather than whether something is permanent or not. Will let history decide in the future whether something that we have been experiencing turns out to be permanent or not.

Agree with you 100% that the ridges have been getting stronger over time regardless of El Niño or La Niña. But all the record warmth we have experienced in the East since March has occurred as forcing crossed the Maritime Continent.

This degree forcing there at times wasn’t present when we had cooler SSTs during earlier super El Niños like 1997. Recent studies have shown more persistent forcing there as the Indio-Pacific warm pool has continued to expand.

This is also why our last 2 super El Niños in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 featured at least one winter month with forcing from the IO to WPAC which didn’t occur with past super El Niños also noted in recent papers. Forcing in those areas most of the time results in a ridge setting up over the East.  

[LakePaste25]

Latest CFSv2 is more indicative of a basin-wide event. Have to keep an open mind here because I think basin-wide is def on the table (not just east-based). 

 

[BlizzardWx]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Summer cold in the Arctic since the 2012 arctic ice melt low has really been phenomenal! Anyone want to offer a theory on why that is? 

I think extra cloud cover from more open sea area and thus evaporation is a good candidate. But its also plausible it could be traced back to the same patterns driving the west Pacific warm pool/-PDO that has been dominant over most of this same period. Interesting to think about anyway.  

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If my guess is correct that changes come fall once the warm pool gets pushed way east (30C isotherm to 120E) from all the big WWBs/westerlies we are continuing to see this summer and the MC convection gets suppressed/subsidence from the +IOD forcing 

I am not totally sure we cool that area below 30C but it is possible. Perhaps more likely is if the area to the east is enough warmer, along with the circulation you mentioned, it can at least put a lid on convection near the MC. Then you'd at least have the dominant forcing away from 4-5-6.