2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

June SOI finished with the lowest monthly reading since early 2016. Healthy El Nino ongoing

Still not seeing that North Pacific response, however

Pretty much the opposite pattern coming up

ENSEMBLE LOOP

[GaWx]

 It’s official. The DMI daily mean Arctic temp N of 80N, with the help of a +AO, never made it up to freezing in June! The previous latest to first get to freezing was June 20th, set in 2013. The June 30th # was -0.25C. Let’s see whether it gets above 0C on July 1st: @Stormchaserchuck1

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 It’s official. The DMI daily mean Arctic temp N of 80N, with the help of a +AO, never made it up to freezing in June! The previous latest to first get to freezing was June 20th, set in 2013. The June 30th # was -0.25C. Let’s see whether it gets above 0C on July 1st: @Stormchaserchuck1

You have to wonder if something is keeping the arctic artificially cool in the Summer since record low levels in 2012. It makes sense - it will take 1 million years to create 1 million year old ice again. Probably not at least directly, but it is a thought that crossed my mind fwiw. 

[bluewave]

While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration.

Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs.

There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east.  Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. The extended CFS runs are doing something similar with the SSTs. 

The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño.

So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much.

Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be. 
 

 

 

 

Agreed on both accounts here. I have been saying that I don't think the EMI will be particularly important this season given the magnitude of the warmth that is expected throughout the basin....should function as an intense, basin-wide event with some hints of MC competition...essentially similar to 2015-2016 in terms of sensible weather. Very warm in the mean with greater variability during the second half.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration.

Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs.

There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east.  Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. The extended CFS runs are doing something similar with the SSTs. 

The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator. 
 

Note that this is based on very outdated 1981-2010 climo. If instead it were using relative climo, that skinny La Niña tongue wouldn’t be as skinny since it would be compared to much more up to date warmer climo taking into account avg. warming of global tropical waters from GW. For the same reason, the surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies there wouldn’t be as warm.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Note that this is based on very outdated 1981-2010 climo. If instead it were using relative climo, that skinny La Niña tongue wouldn’t be as skinny since it would be compared to much more up to date warmer climo taking into account avg. warming of global tropical waters from GW. For the same reason, the surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies there wouldn’t be as warm.

I don’t think the overall picture would change much since the 1981-2010 climo isn’t that much different along the equator in the Pacific ENSO regions than 1991-2020 is.

Also note the current SST analysis is using the same scale between this July and next June forecast.

So the SSTs at least in the model are warmer worldwide including the WPAC warm pool and Atlantic along with the IO than they are today. 

[GaWx]

Just now, bluewave said:

I don’t think the overall picture would change much since the 1981-2010 climo isn’t any different along the equator in the Pacific ENSO regions.

Relative ENSO region anomalies are currently ~0.5 C cooler than 1991-2020 anomalies and likely ~0.6 to 0.7C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Relative ENSO region anomalies are currently ~0.5 C cooler than 1991-2020 anomalies and likely ~0.6 to 0.7C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies.

That’s the ONI scale which is only around tenth of a degree C° warmer from a 27.8 to a 27.9 average than 1981-2010.
 

 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the ONI scale which is only around tenth of a degree C° warmer from a 27.8 to a 27.9 average than 1981-2010.
 

 

Thanks, Chris. I believe that would make the most up to date relative ENSO anomalies ~0.6C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies in June. Is that incorrect?

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed on both accounts here. I have been saying that I don't think the EMI will be particularly important this season given the magnitude of the warmth that is expected throughout the basin....should function as an intense, basin-wide event with some hints of MC competition...essentially similar to 2015-2016 in terms of sensible weather. Very warm in the mean with greater variability during the second half.

Warm early with better chances after the New Year is pretty much what current seasonal modeling (that goes through at least March) is showing.

That said, as was posted earlier, with October Niños usually BN, I  wouldn't be surprised if someone in the east, preferably higher elevations, get a fluke October or early November snowfall. Just a hunch.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Warm early with better chances after the New Year is pretty much what current seasonal modeling (that goes through at least March) is showing.

That said, as was posted earlier, with October Niños usually BN, I  wouldn't be surprised if someone in the east, preferably higher elevations, get a fluke October or early November snowfall. Just a hunch.

 

Yea, I agree. Probably higher and deeper into the interior than my locale. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree. Probably higher and deeper into the interior than my locale. 

I'm inland at 600', but the hills to my N & NE would be the better spot. Of course, if that was to happen, I'd say it would then be a shutout for most until January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 I tried to clarify this yesterday...but all I mean when I call it "basin-wide" is just that-the intense anomalies are not relegated to only the east. Yes, they are strongest in the east, but given the magnitude it doesn't really matter. This is why the most intense El Nino events are all warm...because it spills into the eastern zones. Well, same situation here....we aren't getting a cold season because there is so much warmth in the eastern zones, but there is enough in the central and western flank to introduce some variability. I am not trying to imply that this is an excuse to forecast a 2002-2003 redux in the seasonal mean because there is too much warmth too far east-but what I am favoring is a warm overall season with some episodes of MC and Modoki forcing mixed in. Thus this is what I am trying to convey with any mentions of the 2002 and 2009 analogs, not a redux of those particular seasons. This is why why we have analog COMPOSITES.

I agree that anyone forecasting a season as cold as 2002 is delusional, but that doesn't mean the analog can not be incorporated into a composite, nor that this El Nino can not be characterized as a basin-wide event because it should.

[GaWx]

 The CFS AAM forecast at the site I follow just updated for the first time in 6 days:

Prior run there is 0Z of 6/25: strongest multi week mean I’ve ever seen/saved with it way up at a mean of +2.8 to +3.3 July 8th to end of run, which is July 29th:

 

 Brand new run (0Z of 7/1): still a very strong +AAM but not surprisingly no longer to the near record breaking levels of the 0Z 6/25 run as mean is ~+2.5 on July 8th instead of +2.8, mean then has a near term peak of ~+2.65 on July 12th-13th, and then it’s mainly low to mid +2s July 14-29th instead of +2.8 to +3.3:

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed on both accounts here. I have been saying that I don't think the EMI will be particularly important this season given the magnitude of the warmth that is expected throughout the basin....should function as an intense, basin-wide event with some hints of MC competition...essentially similar to 2015-2016 in terms of sensible weather. Very warm in the mean with greater variability during the second half.

Yeah, when any of the 4 ENSO regions sets or ties a new all-time high the warming potential is there.

So the exact location of the new record may not be as significant as the fact that a new record is being set in one or multiple the zones.

1997-1998 ONI records were focused in the eastern regions. The 2015-2016 were located in the central and western regions. 2023-2024 had its record closer to Nino 4 in the west with a tie of the all -time Nino 4 recently set in 2015-2016.
 

03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, when any of the 4 ENSO regions sets or ties a new all-time high the warming potential is there.

So the exact location of the new record may not be as significant as the fact that a new record is being set in one or multiple the zones.

1997-1998 ONI records were focused in the eastern regions. The 2015-2016 were located in the central and western regions. 2023-2024 had its record closer to Nino 4 in the west with a tie of the all -time Nino 4 recently set in 2015-2016.
 

03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7

 

 

Yea, extreme anomalies throughout ENSO precludes a cold season, but also favors some variability. Just to be clear, while we should get some colder windows that will present an opportunity for significant snows, more likely during the second half, the cold periods will pale in comparison to the warm periods....so no need to bombard me with terd and weenie emojis.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Warm early with better chances after the New Year is pretty much what current seasonal modeling (that goes through at least March) is showing.

That said, as was posted earlier, with October Niños usually BN, I  wouldn't be surprised if someone in the east, preferably higher elevations, get a fluke October or early November snowfall. Just a hunch.

 

I know my own climate very well, but I have also learned a decent amount about the east/midatlantic after being on weather boards for 2+ decades.

Warm/cold/etc are always very relative, subjective terms.

It absolutely will snow here in November & December. My hunch is for above avg snow in Nov & below avg in Dec, but thats just my hunch (based on strong Nino history & an odd frequency of this occurring in even non-Nino years recently). Id lean on an avg to cold November and a mild December, but even if its warm both months, the transition to winter in the Great Lakes from Oct to Nov is a sharp one, and is very apparent even in the warmest years.

Meanwhile, on the east coast/midatlantic, early season snow is never a strong bet, even in a cold pattern. So in a more hostile strong Nino pattern, bad odds just got worse. So while its not impossible, dont count on much pre-Christmas snow. 

January-February is when the Great Lakes region is often thrust into deep winter, so you have options ranging from that to a warmer, less favorable outcome which would actually yield a good chance for dynamic, powerful wet snowstorms. This is the time of year when literally everything has to go wrong to not see much winter.

Meanwhile in the east, Jan/Feb is when climo hits its sweetspot. Pair this with a time when the overall pattern becomes more wintry for much of the nation following the assumed mild December, and the tendancy/STJ in strong Ninos for strong storms, and this is when you can be on high alert for possible huge storms. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, extreme anomalies throughout ENSO precludes a cold season, but also favors some variability. Just to be clear, while we should get some colder windows that will present an opportunity for significant snows, more likely during the second half, the cold periods will pale in comparison to the warm periods....so no need to bombard me with terd and weenie emojis.

The interesting thing is how much of a La Niña-like influence we are currently getting with the record warm pool from the IO over to the Maritime Continent and ENSO regions.

Sure we are seeing the development of the El Nino standing wave which is expected. But as the forcing shifts back west of there, we keep getting these Southeast ridge amplifications with record heat which are more La Niña-like. So much more of an overlapping influence of the multiple forcing zones.

Now this has a few potential ramifications going forward. First, we would expect the El Niño standing wave to get stronger as time progresses as the record ENSO SSTs increase.

Second, the record mid-latitude SSTs could also carry the Niña-like signal for more interactions going forward. So a more active Southeast ridge pattern to go along with the Nino-ridge response further north over North America.

This winter will present a good real time test of the new RONI scale. If the RONI can set records along with the expected ONI ones, then we can see if the scale will be valid by what the atmospheric response looks like.

If the Aleutian low and low in the south to Mid-Atlantic is weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño like in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, then it may just be a new character of super El Niños and not related to RONI.

In this case it would point out that the RONI may not be a valuable tool in such high end super El Niño events. But more for marginal La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool is more significant than the ENSO SSTs. Since we have seen the ridges getting stronger than the troughs regardless of the ENSO phase.

[snowman19]

^ “El Niño continues to mature, with ongoing and persistent westerly wind anomalies across the Central Pacific. It looks like trades will slacken over the East Pacific in the next couple weeks, allowing warmth to continue propagating east. This is a rather east-based event so far, with Niño 1+2 up over 3.5C already! Models continue to show an impressive peak, with even the relative index (RONI) from CFS forecast to peak over 3C.”

Up to +2.3C:




Massive WWB in progress:

 

[BlizzardWx]

For all the talk of the arctic being cold, the sea ice hasn't got the memo, running near record lows. What I suspect, if the "cold" pattern continues, is that this will slow down heading into peak summer melt season like we've seen in the last few years. So we end up low, but not record low. On the other hand if melt off continues it would be yet another sign that something has indeed shifted. 

[forkyfork]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 It’s official. The DMI daily mean Arctic temp N of 80N, with the help of a +AO, never made it up to freezing in June! The previous latest to first get to freezing was June 20th, set in 2013. The June 30th # was -0.25C. Let’s see whether it gets above 0C on July 1st: @Stormchaserchuck1

what does this have to do with el nino?

[snowman19]

No coincidence that we saw the twin/triplet tropical cyclones back in April with this super El Niño. A whole parade of them are expected to form this month, keeping the WWBs/westerlies going in their wake as far as the eye can see….
 

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

For all the talk of the arctic being cold, the sea ice hasn't got the memo, running near record lows. What I suspect, if the "cold" pattern continues, is that this will slow down heading into peak summer melt season like we've seen in the last few years. So we end up low, but not record low. On the other hand if melt off continues it would be yet another sign that something has indeed shifted. 

 

[MarcmmKU]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. 1997 is neutral QBO, not +QBO. So, it doesn’t need to be considered.

Sure. Snowman didn't say that though. He said regardless of strength.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/30/2026 at 10:54 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not sure it's as sure as that. Everyone is jumping on like that 5/5 were warm in some skewed logic of Super being a different entity from Weak. I think -SLP in the warm season that we have going now 60-90N supports more Winter -AO. There is a global temperature jump happening I think and that could bring Winter warmer just about everywhere, but I don't it's as ENSO-related as people think. 

I have already said I think it may be colder than 2015-2016, just not cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/30/2026 at 6:25 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Not weird at all. In fact, done completely intentionally.

Why would you measure anomalies from decades ago with present day climo? I use the appropriate climo period for all of my analogs...H5 and temps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Canadian run is actually pretty cold most of the US in the winter. The look is -WPO ish.

We haven't really had a big El Nino with a -WPO. The El Ninos starting in 2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2006, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1986, 1982, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1957, 1951 are neutral/positive WPO net. The El Ninos starting 2014, 2009, 2004, 1994, 1991, 1977, 1976, 1969, 1963, 1958, 1953 are neutral/negative. 1982 was +WPO early, -WPO late winter (Dec v Feb) but mostly positive.

2009 is the strongest -WPO El Nino DJF, but even then its driven by a strongly negative -WPO in December.

For the stronger El Ninos (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24), the -WPO months are: Dec 2009, Feb 1992, Feb 1983, Feb 1958.

A lot of La Ninas in the South/Southwest are predominantly warm with sharp, brief cold shots - think all the recent snow down to the Gulf Coast, Texas in Feb 2021, etc. I'd expect a similar type of thing this year, but for the Northern US - predominantly warm with sharp, brief cold shots. The southern US should see mostly 'weak' cold but with brief sharp warm ups.

1982 is actually the only super El Niño to average barely -WPO DJFM (-.17)....probably largely why it's the only one in which my area pulled off normal snowfall. December was very strongly +, then January was about neutral before the bottom dropped out. Good Analog IMO.

1982 1.42
1983  -0.05  -0.89  -1.14

[raindancewx]

I don't count March for winter - its not only a Spring month, but transitional out of the most dominant ENSO period (Nov-Feb) to the period when it matters way less (May-Aug).

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I don't count March for winter - its not only a Spring month, but transitional out of the most dominant ENSO period (Nov-Feb) to the period when it matters way less (May-Aug).

Yes, I understand that...most winter seasonal considerations don't. I only do because it's a large part of the snowfall season around here...well, historically, anyway...not so much this decade.