mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: The new CANSIPS That's not east based. I like the way warmest anomalies fade west. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM This may surprise some people - Nino 4 is neutral in trend since mid-April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM 42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The difference between Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super Nino is the same. In weaker events, the ENSO signal is weaker so other things dominate more, more randomness. Caveat being that East vs West based event does make a difference. I think what it comes down to is it's easy to keep the heat out of the eastern regions if it's weaker, but def. agree on the bolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 09:00 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:00 PM 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think what it comes down to is it's easy to keep the heat out of the eastern regions if it's weaker, but def. agree on the bolded. Low pressure over the N. Pacific favors east coast troughing though. Of course if the negative anomaly spills into the West coast like 82-83 and 97-98, that pushes everything east. +AO kind of dominated the pattern in 82-83 though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:04 PM The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño. So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much. Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 10:06 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:06 PM ^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:18 PM 13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird. You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted Tuesday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 PM 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109 2026 will be known as "The Year WIthout a Winter". 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Tuesday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:25 PM 18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird. Not weird at all. In fact, done completely intentionally. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Tuesday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:26 PM 1 minute ago, Tallis Rockwell said: 2026 will be known as "The Year WIthout a Winter". 2026 already happened and was a cold white winter. But welcome to the thread and happy trolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted Tuesday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:34 PM Fargo's nearly +18° departure in February 2024 was undoubtedly boosted by the very strong Nino, but that wasn't the whole story. Given the elevated global baseline and increased frequency of extreme warm anomalies, seeing a month like that this upcoming winter somewhere in the lower 48 wouldn't be too surprising. Not to mention the strength of this Nino, which is unprecedented. Things could potentially get out of hand, but I’m ready for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted Tuesday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:37 PM 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: 2026 already happened and was a cold white winter. But welcome to the thread and happy trolling! you know what I mean. 2027, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM 2 minutes ago, Maxim said: Fargo's nearly +18° departure in February 2024 was undoubtedly boosted by the very strong Nino, but that wasn't the whole story. Given the elevated global baseline and increased frequency of extreme warm anomalies, seeing a month like that this upcoming winter somewhere in the lower 48 wouldn't be too surprising. Not to mention the strength of this Nino, which is unprecedented. Things could potentially get out of hand, but I’m ready for it. You might be but I'm not sure your phone or keyboard is since you only show up when it's warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted Tuesday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:54 PM 15 minutes ago, roardog said: You might be but I'm not sure your phone or keyboard is since you only show up when it's warm. This decade has been consistently warm so far. 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 (the warmest year on record) all rank among the ten warmest years for my city. This year has generally followed the same overall warm pattern, with January being the only month to post a meaningful negative temp departure (spring was top ten warmest as well). Based on the trend, the rest of the year will likely remain warmer than average as well. I'm not sure why this seems to bother you so much. The reason I rarely bother posting here anymore is because this board is packed with people who are complete denialists, so detached from reality that they dismiss years of temperature and snowfall trends whenever those trends don't match what they want to believe. Instead of looking at the evidence, they default to denial and personal attacks. It's not worth wasting time arguing with people who have no interest in an honest discussion, which is why I mainly use Discord now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted Tuesday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:08 PM 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109 these weirdos think you're using it for some hidden agenda or whatever. That's an unbelievably paranoid line of thinking tbh, like, borderline schizo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:10 PM 44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Not weird at all. In fact, done completely intentionally. Sad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 11:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:12 PM 2 minutes ago, Maxim said: these weirdos think you're using it for some hidden agenda or whatever. That's an unbelievably paranoid line of thinking tbh, like, borderline schizo. The exact opposite. I posted earlier that I liked the fact the Cansips faded the Niño west over the winter. He didn't quote me because that the way he operates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted Tuesday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:21 PM 25 minutes ago, Maxim said: Based on the trend, the rest of the year will likely remain warmer than average as well. An incredibly bold prediction to make in this day and age. A warm climate lends itself to warmer than normal temperatures? Tell us more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Tuesday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:23 PM 49 minutes ago, roardog said: You might be but I'm not sure your phone or keyboard is since you only show up when it's warm. Hes an old friend under a new name, if you know what i mean. For not posting much, its always the same thing every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Tuesday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:27 PM 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: An incredibly bold prediction to make in this day and age. A warm climate lends itself to warmer than normal temperatures? Tell us more. Actually. Strong ninos often have cool months in the Fall. And we've already had several cool months this year, so no, i dont think every month the rest of the year will be warmer than avg. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM 29 minutes ago, Maxim said: these weirdos think you're using it for some hidden agenda or whatever. That's an unbelievably paranoid line of thinking tbh, like, borderline schizo. 43 minutes ago, Maxim said: this board is packed with people who are complete denialists... and personal attacks. The irony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted Tuesday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:55 PM 7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 1997 was close to neutral 2004 was close to neutral 2018 was a modest +QBO. I'll give him that one. That was a meh December (and winter overall), not an all out blow torch, like the other 5 +QBO/el nino Decembers. snowman made the stronger claim that +qbo, +enso decembers are a slam dunk always warmer than normal REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH (his exact words go read it). 1997/2004 are weakly +qbo. He's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 12:58 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 12:58 AM 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually. Strong ninos often have cool months in the Fall. And we've already had several cool months this year, so no, i dont think every month the rest of the year will be warmer than avg. Pretty good cold air correlation in Octobers in El Nino's historically: Counter point is PDO also has a high correlation in October - negative being opposite of map below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: The exact opposite. I posted earlier that I liked the fact the Cansips faded the Niño west over the winter. He didn't quote me because that the way he operates. Speaking of cansips. Its July 1st update maintains a cold look centered in the Great Lakes despite the nino strength. January is the coldest month relative to average. It warmed some in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:49 AM 4 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said: 2026 will be known as "The Year WIthout a Winter". Thanks Nostradamous 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:50 AM Even though this winter looks mild , im looking forward to the active STJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 02:54 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:54 AM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thanks Nostradamous Not sure it's as sure as that. Everyone is jumping on like that 5/5 were warm in some skewed logic of Super being a different entity from Weak. I think -SLP in the warm season that we have going now 60-90N supports more Winter -AO. There is a global temperature jump happening I think and that could bring Winter warmer just about everywhere, but I don't it's as ENSO-related as people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted Wednesday at 03:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:04 AM The Canadian run is actually pretty cold most of the US in the winter. The look is -WPO ish. We haven't really had a big El Nino with a -WPO. The El Ninos starting in 2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2006, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1986, 1982, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1957, 1951 are neutral/positive WPO net. The El Ninos starting 2014, 2009, 2004, 1994, 1991, 1977, 1976, 1969, 1963, 1958, 1953 are neutral/negative. 1982 was +WPO early, -WPO late winter (Dec v Feb) but mostly positive. 2009 is the strongest -WPO El Nino DJF, but even then its driven by a strongly negative -WPO in December. For the stronger El Ninos (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24), the -WPO months are: Dec 2009, Feb 1992, Feb 1983, Feb 1958. A lot of La Ninas in the South/Southwest are predominantly warm with sharp, brief cold shots - think all the recent snow down to the Gulf Coast, Texas in Feb 2021, etc. I'd expect a similar type of thing this year, but for the Northern US - predominantly warm with sharp, brief cold shots. The southern US should see mostly 'weak' cold but with brief sharp warm ups. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 03:05 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:05 AM 3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said: snowman made the stronger claim that +qbo, +enso decembers are a slam dunk always warmer than normal REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH (his exact words go read it). 1997/2004 are weakly +qbo. He's wrong. If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015. Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. 1997 is neutral QBO, not +QBO. So, it doesn’t need to be considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM 39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Speaking of cansips. Its July 1st update maintains a cold look centered in the Great Lakes despite the nino strength. January is the coldest month relative to average. It warmed some in December. If the monthlies still say cold when get to the fall, then that's the time to start paying attention. I know strong and super el ninos usually mean warm winters, but if the monthlies are still showing a cold signal for winter in the fall, then you know something is up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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