2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

 Updated relative weeklies:

Midweek date……..1+2………3……..3.4……..4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.8
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8
 24JUN2026         2.5        1.5        1.2        0.6

[GaWx]

 The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar:

@PhiEaglesfan712

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar:

@PhiEaglesfan712

If true, 2027-28 is going to challenge 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina. Both of those followed robust el ninos, and broke relatively long (over a decade) strong la nina droughts. Remember, we haven't had a strong la nina since 2010-11. 

Strong La Nina: 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11, (2027-28)

[bluewave]

Based on how consistent the CFS has been, expect the Euro to increase to the +3.5 to +4 traditional ONI range also on its release coming for July 5th.

This makes sense given the all -time record SST warmth we are currently experiencing so early on.

Continuing WWBs will allow this event to keep intensifying at a record rate. The forecasts will be more accurate as get further past the spring predictability barrier. 
 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If true, 2027-28 is going to challenge 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina. Both of those followed robust el ninos, and broke relatively long (over a decade) strong la nina droughts. Remember, we haven't had a strong la nina since 2010-11. 

Strong La Nina: 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11, (2027-28)

maybe let’s get through this season before talking about *next year’s* La Niña again? i’m hardly ready to even talk about this coming winter yet although that is tough to avoid because it’s talked about daily here 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Based on how consistent the CFS has been, expect the Euro to increase to the +3.5 to +4 traditional ONI range also on its release coming for July 5th.

This makes sense given the all -time record SST warmth we are currently experiencing so early on.

Continuing WWBs will allow this event to keep intensifying at a record rate. The forecasts will be more accurate as get further past the spring predictability barrier. 
 

 

 

 

 This is again indicative of a not nearly as E based El Niño as 1997-8 with the slope from E to W not nearly as steep.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar:

[mention=21068]PhiEaglesfan712[/mention]

So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters.

Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Latest CFSv2 is more indicative of a basin-wide event. Have to keep an open mind here because I think basin-wide is def on the table (not just east-based). 

 

Yea.....on the table as in the main course.  I think a few are continuing to obfuscate the sheer magnitude of the event with the concept of "basin-wide". Yes, largest anomalies are east and the seasonal mean will likely resemble the east-based composite, but there are very strong anomalies throughout the ENSO region, so some volatility is likely. 

Basin-wide doesn't necessarily mean it can not, or will not act more like an east-based event in the end....some do, some don't.....there is more variability. I do agree that this one will look east based in the DJFM mean pattern, but I also think that there is a decent shot of month of MC and Modoki forcing...but yes, eat-based likely strongest.

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters.

Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail

I agree with you on a lot of this, especially the late winter hype and the fact that the CFS is out on its own with this record rate of cooling. However, at the same time, I’ll say these things:

-It’s fair to post this aspect of the CFS as you did the first CFS post of the morning. Not only a record peak, but also a record cool off afterward (V shape).

-This cooling of 1.3 from Nov to Jan would be a new record cooling as the current record per ERSST monthlies is the 1.0 cooling from Nov to Jan of 2002-3

-Sometimes they’ve actually strengthened from Nov to Jan

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters.

Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail

I agree 100% on this...but it's also important to remember that we DID get a crippling KU in January 2016 and we DID get a record breaking arctic outbreak in February. I am suggesting that same volatility here due to the basin-wide nature, not because El NINO is "dying", which is of course silly given the atmospheric lag.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I agree with you on a lot of this, especially the late winter hype and the fact that the CFS is out on its own with this record rate of cooling. However, at the same time, I’ll say these things:

-It’s fair to post this aspect of the CFS as you did the first CFS post of the morning. Not only a record peak, but also a record cool off afterward (V shape).

-This cooling of 1.3 from Nov to Jan would be a new record cooling as the current record per ERSST monthlies is the 1.0 cooling from Nov to Jan of 2002-3

-Sometimes they’ve actually strengthened from Nov to Jan

Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.

 Agree 100% about the volatility of Nino 1+2, but I’m talking about Nino 3.4, for which the latest CFS has a record obliterating high in Nov followed by a record rate of cooling afterward. The CFS’ volatility is not unlike how 1+2 can often be! But it is out on its own with that rapid a cooling of 3.4. And I agree about the atmospheric lag, regardless.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Agree 100% about the volatility of Nino 1+2, but I’m talking about Nino 3.4, for which the latest CFS has a record obliterating high in Nov followed by a record rate of cooling afterward. The CFS’ volatility is not unlike how 1+2 can often be! But it is out on its own with that rapid a cooling of 3.4. And I agree about the atmospheric lag, regardless.

I absolutely believe that we break the 1982-83 all time RONI record and also the traditional ONI record. This thing is a monster. I fully expect the new model runs for July to get stronger with the peak

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree 100% on this...but it's also important to remember that we DID get a crippling KU in January 2016 and we DID get a record breaking arctic outbreak in February. I am suggesting that same volatility here due to the basin-wide nature, not because El NINO is "dying", which is of course silly given the atmospheric lag.

One thing I’m very, very confident in as far as winter, is a much warmer than normal to “torch” December this year because of what myself, @GaWx and you already discussed….the very strong correlation over the last 46 years (since 1980) of +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers being a slam dunk signal for warmth…literally 6 out of the last 6 were warm….

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing I’m very, very confident in as far as winter, is a much warmer than normal to “torch” December this year because of what myself, @GaWx and you already discussed….the very strong correlation over the last 46 years (since 1980) of +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers being a slam dunk signal for warmth…literally 6 out of the last 6 were warm….

 

 

 

 

Agree...it will also be well above in the mean because were aren't getting cold of that magnitude, nor as protracted later in the season. I am NOT trying to imply that this year will be like the colder basin-wide seasons like 2002 when I call it basin-wide.

[Dillsburg Keith]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters.

Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail

There was a blizzard in Jan 2016..historic for many, so they were partly right

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Dillsburg Keith said:

There was a blizzard in Jan 2016..historic for many, so they were partly right

Their argument was for a full scale turnaround to deep winter; arctic cold and snowstorms lasting for months after the rapid El Niño weakening began, not for the single anomalous blizzard and the single anomalous arctic cold snap, both in 2016. There was never a full scale turnaround in 1998 (JB) or in 2016 fDT, JB)

@JBG 2006-07 wasn’t a super El Niño. Huge difference

[snowman19]

https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2071636498290458888?s=20

Back up to +2.25C:

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree...it will also be well above in the mean because were aren't getting cold of that magnitude, nor as protracted later in the season. I am NOT trying to imply that this year will be like the colder basin-wide seasons like 2002 when I call it basin-wide.

1982-83 and 2015-16 are probably my favorite analogs as of now

[JBG]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Their argument was for a full scale turnaround to deep winter; arctic cold and snowstorms lasting for months after the rapid El Niño weakening began, not for the single anomalous blizzard and the single anomalous arctic cold snap, both in 2016. There was never a full scale turnaround in 1998 (JB) or in 2016 fDT, JB)

2006-7 had a full turnaround; IIRC middle of January went from record torch in NYC area to lots of cold and snow, with Valentine's Day IP blizzard.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, JBG said:

2006-7 had a full turnaround; IIRC middle of January went from record torch in NYC area to lots of cold and snow, with Valentine's Day IP blizzard.

That winter featured two 3-5inch sleetstorms in NYC with temps in the teens and lower to mid 20s on Valentines Day and St Patrick's Day. Wild.

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Their argument was for a full scale turnaround to deep winter; arctic cold and snowstorms lasting for months after the rapid El Niño weakening began, not for the single anomalous blizzard and the single anomalous arctic cold snap, both in 2016. There was never a full scale turnaround in 1998 (JB) or in 2016 fDT, JB)

Did they actually say this though? I dont recall anyone going full throttle "months of deep winter" in these years. Jan-early Mar 2016 is actually exactly what I would hope for in a strong nino. Multiple wintry threats here and some good cold snaps despite an overall warmer than normal mean.

I searched online multiple different ways and could find nothing from JB from January 1998. Yes, he was at accuweather back then, but I dont think he had much of a follower base that long ago. You are not wrong in assuming JB most likely always goes cold, but again, its the exact same as you going warm. Im sure JB was going cold in 1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12 just as Im sure you went warm in 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I think extra cloud cover from more open sea area and thus evaporation is a good candidate. But its also plausible it could be traced back to the same patterns driving the west Pacific warm pool/-PDO that has been dominant over most of this same period. Interesting to think about anyway.  

That's a good point about the North Pacific and -PDO. You can see the clear correlation here

But how impressive is that low pressure anomaly over Arctic for 11 warm seasons now (2019 was the exception)!

[George001]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did they actually say this though? I dont recall anyone going full throttle "months of deep winter" in these years. Jan-early Mar 2016 is actually exactly what I would hope for in a strong nino. Multiple wintry threats here and some good cold snaps despite an overall warmer than normal mean.

I searched online multiple different ways and could find nothing from JB from January 1998. Yes, he was at accuweather back then, but I dont think he had much of a follower base that long ago. You are not wrong in assuming JB most likely always goes cold, but again, it’s the exact same as you going warm. Im sure JB was going cold in 1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12 just as Im sure you went warm in 2010-11, 2013-14, 2015-16. 

Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.

[michsnowfreak]

28 minutes ago, George001 said:

Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.

I haven't seen anyone here forecast a cold winter. In fact, everyone expects a milder than avg mean. However, it has been discussed how there still remain plenty of opportunity for a big east coast storm, and for those of us further north multiple wintry opportunities exist in mild winters. Hes hoping for the warmest/least snowy outcome possible so he can enjoy weenie tears, but thats something thats really just wish casting. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.

I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I haven't seen anyone here forecast a cold winter. In fact, everyone expects a milder than avg mean. However, it has been discussed how there still remain plenty of opportunity for a big east coast storm, and for those of us further north multiple wintry opportunities exist in mild winters. Hes hoping for the warmest/least snowy outcome possible so he can enjoy weenie tears, but thats something thats really just wish casting. 

The odds of a cold Winter at all in the mean (DJFM) is probably like 15%. For the US as a whole maybe 10%. It's not a hard forecast. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country. 

Good point. Its also typical to see very early and late season snows

[frontranger8]

53 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good point. Its also typical to see very early and late season snows

That's definitely true here in CO. Many of our biggest storms have been early/late in El Nino winters.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think the PDO may start to trend positive decadally when the Summer Arctic ice catches up with its previous trend or starts "evening out all this warm season cold anomaly". What do you think @40/70 Benchmark?