2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

I believe the biggest factor for PDO calculations is that pool of water south of the Aleutians and to the north/northwest of Hawaii. 

The extensive ridge driving the warm pool from east of Japan to the north of Hawaii is more of a 2nd EOF -PDO type pattern. This is why most of  the analog dates for early July are established or developing  La Niña years. You would want to see a deep trough set up from Japan to north of Hawaii heading into next winter to turn the PDO more positive. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

May 2026 was a little cooler than May 2023 around Japan. But much warmer than 2015 and 1997. This relationship is reflected in the PDO values for the month of May. Plus the area off the Baja was much warmer than 2023.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

May 2026 PDO -1.60

 

May 2023 PDO -2.46

May 2015 PDO +0.40 and +1.65 by July

May 1997 PDO +1.29 and +2.35 by June

Traditional strong +PDO pattern

 

This sums up my feeling....the Pacific will be better than 2023, but we still have work to do.

[csnavywx]

It's such a beast that I really wouldn't worry too much about the other indices at this point. They tend to get drug along into resonance after a while.

[frontranger8]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The extensive ridge driving the warm pool from east of Japan to the north of Hawaii is more of a 2nd EOF -PDO type pattern. This is why most of  the analog dates for early July are established or developing  La Niña years. You would want to see a deep trough set up from Japan to north of Hawaii heading into next winter to turn the PDO more positive. 
 

 

Correct, I'm just talking about what exactly determines the PDO numbers. You can see it clearly looking back through the years.

[snowman19]

This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm. This El Niño is going to go off the rails strengthening next month, would not surprise me if it goes super in August….
 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm. This El Niño is going to go off the rails strengthening next month, would not surprise me if it goes super in August….
 

 

 

 

 

Strongest Southern Hemisphere +AAO since May 2023 as their winter gets underway.

The SAM index reached a strongly positive value of +4.23 on June 21, which is a three-year high.

That means that mean sea level pressure is currently trending higher than normal near Australia's latitudes, and the westerly wind belt that flows between Australia and Antarctica is located further south than usual for this time of year.

This has been evident in the sort of weather we’ve seen lately across southeastern Australia, with fewer cold fronts, frequent blocking high pressure systems, and unseasonably warm temperatures.

The last time the SAM index reached 4 (or higher) was in May 2023, when it peaked at 5.5. The values in the index are a measure of standard deviation from the norm in terms of mean sea level pressure. In very basic terms, it means we’ve seen a lot more highs than lows.

[GaWx]

On 6/21/2026 at 7:04 AM, bluewave said:

Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. 

The post above from Chris and the one below from Adam are in conflict with Chris’ suggesting more Nina-like (-AAM) and Adam’s stating +GLAAM off the charts!

 Why are these 2 saying opposites about upcoming AAM?
 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm.
 

[olafminesaw]

On 6/11/2026 at 9:17 PM, olafminesaw said:

 

Forecasts have leveled out and holding steady now at +3-+3.5

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The post above from Chris and the one below from Adam are in conflict with Chris’ suggesting more Nina-like (-AAM) and Adam’s stating +GLAAM off the charts!

 Why are these 2 saying opposites about upcoming AAM?
 

 

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The post above from Chris and the one below from Adam are in conflict with Chris’ suggesting more Nina-like (-AAM) and Adam’s stating +GLAAM off the charts!

 Why are these 2 saying opposites about upcoming AAM?
 

The Euro forecast chart may show what was discussed in that post more clearly. 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

!!

 

[LakePaste25]

 

[GaWx]

Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

Yes, only this site.  

[GaWx]

If this were to keep up, the WCS daily PDO would go positive at least for a short period starting by ~this weekend! It’s now up to -0.17 vs -1.40 on May 27th:

 The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!

[GaWx]

1. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI monthly of +3.1 in Dec vs current monthly record of +2.7 (1982):

 

2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

 

3. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, with the record warmest RONI month of only +2.7, a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

The code 502 errors are really bad today with big slowdowns here!

 OHC climbing back and may soon reach April 20th highs for 2026:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like +9C is about to pop in the subsurface on TAO/Triton!

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks like +9C is about to pop in the subsurface on TAO/Triton!

This South American met agrees with you. We are about to see +9C subsurface anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC:

 

 

 

^Translation:

“20°C Isotherm: the 20°C layer that separates the colder waters from the warmer ones in the deep-sea profile (up to 500 meters depth) where #ElNiño develops.
Over the last 3 months, that layer has been becoming almost horizontal (a sign of an intense event). The slope of the thermocline today is comparable to the one observed at a similar time in 1997. This can be seen in the measurements of how deeply it is submerged compared to its normal values at 95°W (which is the eastern boundary of the TAO buoys that measure the temperatures of the first 500 meters of ocean depth and the gateway to warming in the Niño 1+2 Region or where we measure #ElNiñoCostero). Currently, it is about 50 meters below its usual position. It is observed as it appeared in 1997 and exceeding in depth all intermediate #ElNiño events.
Two other relevant observations: the first is the surface displacement of the warmest waters of the equatorial Pacific, which at the start of the animation were in the western basin and today are moving through the central Pacific (see movements of the 29°C and 30°C isotherms at the surface). The second: a new warm Kelvin Wave forming embedded within the far western end of the large subsurface warm water anomaly under 170°W. In the animation, I have slowed down the speed of the last frames so that it can be appreciated how the mass of warm water sinks in the "tail" of the larger warm mass. There is the warm Kelvin Wave or downwelling wave.
Currently, the continuous sinking of the 20°C isotherm has already produced an anomaly of +8°C at the eastern end (near South America) of the temperature profile. In 1997 we reached values between +11°C and +12°C. Soon we will see a 9°C anomaly appear within the +8°C one.
This is the highest heat content in June between 180° and 100°W since the +2.25°C of June 1997. To date, we are at approximately +2.10°C.”

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

Strong la nina in 2027-28 if this verifies.

[bluewave]

The first time that Nino 1+2 ONI went above +3 only 3 years apart. So the last super El Niño left a warm imprint without the stronger trades or much in the way of La Niña developing.

The first clue the El Niño would reload so quickly was the 1+2 warming in November 2025 into December 2025. A record +PNA followed with a strongest Aleutian low in years and Nino-like elements to the pattern.

Will  be interesting to see how this record breaking event leaves the Pacific Basin SST and wind structure for what happens later in the 2020s. 

The current PDO would be in the +1.60 range just based on the EPAC warmth like July 2015. But the lingering warmth and ridging from Japan to North of Hawaii are having an overlapping influence leading  to alternating Nino-like and Niña-like 500mb patterns across North America. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not sure if this is objectively true but this does seem "intuitively" to be quite fast for an onset differential - coarse kind of resolution/presentation as it may be...   What's the average modality timing with these things...etc

[BlizzardWx]

On 6/23/2026 at 11:03 AM, LakePaste25 said:

I do think RONI matters here when you’re looking at how the W pacific SSTS can destructively interfere with things. Mostly because warm SSTAs everywhere also raise the “floor” of 500 mb GPH, so a negative relative anomaly in the W pac is probably sufficient in preventing the W pac from contributing to a rossby wave response (floor is high enough it’s not a ridge relative to GPH). Hope I’m making any sense when I theorize this. 

tldr: W pac is already becoming negative in relative terms which i think is “good enough” since height anomalies are also relative in terms of rossby waves. 

 

 

 

If the entire system is too warm, even "below normal" can still be warm enough for convection to form. I tend to think that is what actually matters. If storms are popping near to above normal frequency near the MC you still have forcing. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure if this is objectively true but this does seem "intuitively" to be quite fast for an onset differential - coarse kind of resolution/presentation as it may be...   What's the average modality timing with these things...etc

Yeah, the fastest El Niño development experienced during modern record keeping. 
 

 

[rclab]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

I have also experienced it! As the site is a daily, albeit, digital socialization outlet for me, I pave noticed it in the previous two days. Thank you GaWx, as always …..

[GaWx]

On 6/20/2026 at 11:50 AM, GaWx said:

 Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks:

 

Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!

 The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read:

 

 Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run:




 I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

If the entire system is too warm, even "below normal" can still be warm enough for convection to form. I tend to think that is what actually matters. If storms are popping near to above normal frequency near the MC you still have forcing. 

SSTs near +30°C will produce forcing that overlaps with the primary El Nino standing wave. Plus large areas of mid-latitude record SST warmth will add a -PDO La Niña-like influence. The coming heatwave for late June into early July is something we more have associated with strong La Niña or -PDO patterns. The analog composite and July coorelations are mostly comprised of established La Ninas or developing La Nina’s with a strong +SOI. 
 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

If the entire system is too warm, even "below normal" can still be warm enough for convection to form. I tend to think that is what actually matters. If storms are popping near to above normal frequency near the MC you still have forcing. 

 

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

SSTs near +30°C will produce forcing that overlaps with the primary El Nino standing wave. Plus large areas of mid-latitude record SST warmth will add a -PDO La Niña-like influence. The coming heatwave for late June into early July is something we more have associated with strong La Niña or -PDO patterns. The analog composite and July coorelations are mostly comprised of established La Ninas or developing La Nina’s with a strong +SOI. 
 

 

 

This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event. 

[BlizzardWx]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

SSTs near +30°C will produce forcing that overlaps with the primary El Nino standing wave. Plus large areas of mid-latitude record SST warmth will add a -PDO La Niña-like influence. The coming heatwave for late June into early July is something we more have associated with strong La Niña or -PDO patterns. The analog composite and July coorelations are mostly comprised of established La Ninas or developing La Nina’s with a strong +SOI. 
 

 

 

Yeah that is exactly what I was getting at. I am not sure if +30C is a magic number per say, as strong enough subsidence from a +IOD and +ENSO circulation might be able to keep a lid on it. But I do think the general idea is correct that if the surface is warm enough you will still get storm activity and forcing from that area.