BlizzardWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said: This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event. That is the question! I hope we can do it but I am still on the fence about whether it happens or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Does 30C remain a magic number with a warming globe? Or does the magic # keep warming as the globe warms? That’s a good question. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (exponentially) but i’d think it also takes more to actually wring it out. The warmer SSTs certainly help with that. Intuitively i think the “magic number” would have to go up as it warms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 47 minutes ago, GaWx said: Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”? I think it IS pretty good right now for the most part. But I also think as the globe warms it will rise. It's really a function of lapse rates and a 30C surface is usually good enough to guarantee conditional instability for the time. But this ties back to my other post that a robust +IOD and +ENSO circulation could still cap it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 On 6/23/2026 at 12:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html 2015-16 is exactly the kind of pattern id gamble with if forced to have a strong nino. I had largely filed that winter in the unforgettable camp, especially with the hangover from 2013-15, but after looking at it further, there were lots of winter storms in the region from late November to early April (sans December). While snowfall finished near to slightly below avg in far southern MI it jumped to above to well above avg snow in south-central MI. The caveat applies that no winters are identical, but the storminess is key, as opposed to drier ninos. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Absolutely classic El Niño standing wave Record-breaking WWBs this month and more DWKWs to come…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 In other news, the 90 day SOI is almost -14 and the 30 day SOI is over -18. Massive turnaround since the end of March. Extremely impressive…. When you combine everything with the ++PMM, the STJ is going to be a roided up beast this fall/winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: In other news, the 90 day SOI is almost -14 and the 30 day SOI is over -18. Massive turnaround since the end of March. Extremely impressive…. When you combine everything with the ++PMM, the STJ is going to be a roided up beast this fall/winter Yep. This is fantastic news for prospects to relieve the terrible SE drought! Couldn’t have better prospects. Nearly the exact opposite of last fall/winter’s drought inducing La Niña. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 19 hours ago, GaWx said: Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”? As the globe keeps warming the +30C areas will become 31C and eventually 32 C etc…Right now once we approach 30 C, that is were the forcing tends to gravitate toward. The coming heatwave will have a combination of forcing from the Maritime Continent to the Nino regions. So at this time the more westward forcing will be driving the bus so to speak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Typhoon season in the PAC is about to explode. Powder keg setup. More WWBs in their wake to come….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 20 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event. Our last two super El Niños had at least one month with dominant Maritime Continent forcing. December 2015 Maritime Continent forcing transitioned to more El Niño-like forcing in January and February. This was the strongest El Niño on record. 2023-2024 also had one winter month with Maritime Continent forcing in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: 2015-16 is exactly the kind of pattern id gamble with if forced to have a strong nino. I had largely filed that winter in the unforgettable camp, especially with the hangover from 2013-15, but after looking at it further, there were lots of winter storms in the region from late November to early April (sans December). While snowfall finished near to slightly below avg in far southern MI it jumped to above to well above avg snow in south-central MI. The caveat applies that no winters are identical, but the storminess is key, as opposed to drier ninos. Yea, I would gamble with that season again....it could have easily been like 1982 with near average snowfall if that February blizzard made it like 100 miles further north. Just accept that it isn't going to a cold season in the mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Our last two super El Niños had at least one month with dominant Maritime Continent forcing. December 2015 Maritime Continent forcing transitioned to more El Niño-like forcing in January and February. This was the strongest El Niño on record. 2023-2024 also had one winter month with Maritime Continent forcing in January. Completely expect MC forcing for much of December and maybe into some of January. Ironically enough, if @snowman19is right, and we are able to vanquish the MC for this season, then it probably means a somewhat colder first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, bluewave said: As the globe keeps warming the +30C areas will become 31C and eventually 32 C etc…Right now once we approach 30 C, that is were the forcing tends to gravitate toward. The coming heatwave will have a combination of forcing from the Maritime Continent to the Nino regions. So at this time the more westward forcing will be driving the bus so to speak. You can see how that has edged eastward a bit relative to the mean positioning from the past decade.... I expect that to the theme of the winter....better, but not quite there yet. Excerpt from my June update: What this implies is a season that will maintain some milder warm MC influence in the mean, especially given the degree to which intense El Niño events elevate global temperature, but with greater variability, which may very well appease east coast winter enthusiasts during the climatologically favored interval of the coming winter season. Indeed, it appears as though the wise early hedge is for winter 2026-2027 to have multiple personalities with increased volatility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 On 6/13/2026 at 6:58 PM, buckeye said: Don ain’t buy’n it Lol how can he deny it. The data don't lie. Water temps are warmer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7 4 kids under the age of 7? Wow . Wait till they are teenagers.. then the fun really begins... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7 Understand. My kids are 16 months apart, but it was a son then identical girls, so went from 0 to 3 kids fast. Now they are all in college... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: 4 kids under the age of 7? Wow . Wait till they are teenagers.. then the fun really begins... Are you certain that you didn't receive 17.574" last season? Lots of slat-stickers down there in the mid atl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Completely expect MC forcing for much of December and maybe into some of January. Ironically enough, if @snowman19is right, and we are able to vanquish the MC for this season, then it probably means a somewhat colder first half. How about the cold waters south of Greenland?..Very few talk about it on this enso topic.I don't think it was that cold in 82,97, and 15..can it have an affect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Saturday at 04:58 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:58 AM Historic heat wave in Europe has correlation to ENSO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Saturday at 05:49 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 AM Do we make it 6 months in a row of -PNA? 5940dm block over the PNA region is not a typical El Nino pattern. We aren't seeing that El Nino low pressure in the North Pacific at all, although at times US and Europe conditions have been close match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:19 AM 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Do we make it 6 months in a row of -PNA? 5940dm block over the PNA region is not a typical El Nino pattern. We aren't seeing that El Nino low pressure in the North Pacific at all, although at times US and Europe conditions have been close match. PDO still drifting higher regardless and contrary to last year's drop at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Saturday at 11:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:28 AM Big warming north of Hawaii and with the +AMO increase off the East Coast are associated with record 100°+ heat being forecast in the East to start July. This has more in common with La Niña than a super El Niño in July. Notice how nearly all the analog dates are developing or established La Niña Summers. So while the daily PDO is closer to neutral than at this time last year, the atmospheric 500 mb pattern more resembles La Niña over North America. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Saturday at 11:55 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:55 AM In addition to the WWBs/westerlies we have been seeing since April, there has been a complete trade wind reversal in the equatorial PAC, at the surface and aloft, something you only see in the strongest El Niños 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 11:57 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:57 AM 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Big warming north of Hawaii and with the +AMO increase off the East Coast are associated with record 100°+ heat being forecast in the East to start July. This has more in common with La Niña than a super El Niño in July. Notice how nearly all the analog dates are developing or established La Niña Summers. So while the daily PDO is closer to neutral than at this time last year, the atmospheric 500 mb pattern more resembles La Niña over North America. Harrisburg Capital City Airport is -.8 thru June 26th. It's been closer to Niño around here. The heat waves this year have been transient or you wouldn't have a BN number thru the first 26 days of the month. Since this one won't start until Tuesday, the month will still likely end BN. My hunch is this heat will be transient again, but we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Saturday at 12:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:22 PM 39 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Harrisburg Capital City Airport is -.8 thru June 26th. It's been closer to Niño around here. The heat waves this year have been transient or you wouldn't have a BN number thru the first 26 days of the month. Since this one won't start until Tuesday, the month will still likely end BN. My hunch is this heat will be transient again, but we'll have to see. Your local area not really representative of the much warmer pattern experienced around the greater region from the spring into summer so far. Parts of NJ had early record 100° heat for May. Many local climate sites are currently in the top 5 for the most 90° days by June 24. But I agree with you that the pullbacks closer to average between the record heat days are probably the developing El Nino influence. While super El Niños are a small sample size, none of the previous developing super El Niños came anywhere close to the number of 90° days so early in the season. Most of the shared top 5 years are La Niña, neutral, or weaker El Niños. Plus the warming climate is also influence increasing the 90° days counts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:33 PM 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Your local area not really representative of the much warmer pattern experienced around the greater region from the spring into summer so far. Parts of NJ had early record 100° heat for May. Many local climate sites are currently in the top 5 for the most 90° days by June 24. But I agree with you that the pullbacks closer to average between the record heat surges are probably the developing El Nino influence. While super El Niños are a small sample size, none of the previous developing super El Niños came anywhere close to the number of 90° days so early in the season. Most of the shared top 5 years are La Niña, neutral, or weaker El Niños. Plus the warming climate is also influence increasing the 90° days counts. Sux to be those other places. But most are centered around the I95 concrete jungle heat island. No surprise there and to be expected as the development has not ended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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