2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/17/2026 at 9:12 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

On more of a personal note ... if this ensuing "winter" isn't going to deliver - which frankly, having a CC as a launch pad upon which a warm ENSO of this ilk is sky rocketing off of, heh ... ah - good luck.  Sounds like a warm synergistic massacre..  Not helping that we've had this upstream active solar disk fire hosing the 150 thru 1 kPa depths over the Pole for the last year.  Anyway, I just would rather not have any of it because 4 months on mud as a season, in the dark, is some kind of middle earth dystopian shit.

I'm not saying I don't have appreciation ( and hope ) for fantastic winter patterns and consequence.  But having a passion and fascination for winter weather events, quite necessarily needs to be fed winter events; it does not include the dreaded 42 F winter.

The problem is, it takes a denier at this point to not sense the growing dearth of decent winters. Or at least it seems that way. A stab at an objective opinion here ..., let's see:  CC + history-making warm ENSO --> plausible synergistic emergence between those not necessarily meaning cold (duh) + solar-cleansed stratosphere + this ...

...occurring under a lowering boreal heights?

Explosive potential.  Absolutely!  That unfortunately does not include a cold or cryo-profile, necessarily.

By and large, the last impressive winter, IMHO, goes all the way back to 2014-2015... and it wasn't actually the whole winter. And, it didn't really involve the larger community?   Mainly a SNE/CNE affair.  We just had 3 1/2 weeks of utter carnage in those sub-forum regions during February 2015; so overwhelming ... the constituency of these regions think that winter was phenomenal. I think that 3 1/2 weeks was a "planetary storm" - a concept pushed forth by a theoretical Met back in the last Century but damn! that was a great argument for his conjecture. Not sure that was a whole winter, though.  I guess in fairness, getting 150 to 300% of normal whole season's snow, amid lung aching cold ... probably should qualify the whole winter?  

I don't need all that.  Just give us a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern.  There'll be potential to do more along the way.  Maybe one will blockbuster.  Otherwise, if I were god, I would make it 60 F with frequent runs at 70, in some sort of freak show scary warm time of it, so that I can continue with outdoor activities and just deal with 16 hours of darkness days.   Also, I would look up all my enemies and afflict them with a kitchen renovation project - having been suffering this fuckin thing going on weeks now ... I've seriously gazed out at sunsets while deeply reconsidering life choices.  

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more-

JK

[Keith Central PA]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more-

JK

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.