40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Really impressive how much stronger the record WWBs were in June and July 2026 than 1997. Yea, I'm going through all of that stuff now for my update...crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm going through all of that stuff now for my update...crazy. This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east. I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store. some clever research assistant - if hasn't already happened - will gain their master's thesis approval by demonstrating that there is a statistically significant occurrence of pattern return state that features ridging about 1/5th the distance around the Globe, downstream of these oceanic quasi or semi permanent warm regions ... and why. Hint, the answer is NOT because the ocean is driving the pattern. The impetus here being, there's something in the hemispheric scaffolding that's now different; among other aspect, also effecting the SST distributions over large total spacing. It seems to me ...well, I'm curious to see, if that repositioning ( which I noticed myself just yesterday - ), means an end to the rich recurrent -EPOs us winter enthusiasts have enjoyed during these cold seasons since the 20teens. Great. 1, accelerating CC 2, on top of which there is a super warm ENSO blossoming 3, while there "might" be a signal that stems the N/A cold conveyor source. Forky's startin' to look like a genius. LOL because he can apparently add. like, (1+2+3)/3 ... ? Not that anyone's disputing a warm winter - hell, even in the "cold" ones we seem to be closer to neutral (ave climo) - probably owing to the elephant in the room ... But above and beyond that, the warmth could be extraordinary relative to, particularly should these aspects working together create synergy. I've been noticing a lot of climate -based tools with outlooks implicating -NAO ... The philosophical problem I have with using that in a seasonal outlook is a yes and no. The yes, there is an unarguable correlation between ENSO and NAO - particularly in Jan/Feb, that is true. But the no, no NAO timing and placement can be defined using that correlation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that. Roundy has had some great discussion surrounding this over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Roundy has had some great discussion surrounding this over the summer. I'm not in the camp that we are going to continue warming until infinity and beyond, so we'll see....just my hunch. I love people who claim that their "opinions" are 110% grounded in objectivity-bullshit. The evidence is, or should be, however, there is an inherent element of subjectivity to the conceptualization that we arrive at given the facts at hand. No one definitively knows what our climate will look like in 100 years, and those who claim that they do are full of shit....whether or not they have any insight into said cognitive fecal matter is another issue entirely. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: some clever research assistant - if hasn't already happened - will gain their master's theses approval by demonstrating that there is a statistically significant occurrence of pattern return state that features ridging about 1/5th the distance around the Globe, downstream of these oceanic quasi or semi permanent warm regions ... and why. Hint, the answer is NOT because the ocean is driving the pattern. The impetus here being, there's something in the hemispheric scaffolding that's now different. It seems to me ...well, I'm curious to see, if that repositioning ( which I noticed myself just yesterday - ), means an end to the rich recurrent -EPOs us winter enthusiasts have enjoyed during these cold seasons since the 20teens. Great. 1, accelerating CC 2, on top of which there is a super warm ENSO blossoming 3, while there "might" be a signal that stems the N/A cold conveyor source. Forky's startin' to look like a genius. LOL because he can apparently add. like, (1+2+3)/3 ... ? Not that anyone's disputing a warm winter - hell, even in the "cold" ones we seem to be closer to neutral (ave climo) - probably owing to the elephant in the room ... But above and beyond that, the warmth could be extraordinary relative to, particularly should these aspects working together create synergy. I've been noticing a lot of climate -based tools with outlooks implicating -NAO ... The philosophical problem I have with using that in a seasonal outlook is a yes and no. The yes, there is an unarguable correlation between ENSO and NAO - particularly in Jan/Feb, that is true. But the no, no NAO timing and placement can be defined using that correlation. Yes, I have noted that the signal for -NAO to develop mid-season also favors some eastern bias. No guarantees...1972 was pre CC, didn't have an extremely hostile polar domain, and was still wretched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 I think the -NAO signs are more about a beacon of hope in a sea of winter-maelstrom, rather than a "silver-bullet" for the cold season...of it should be, anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not in the camp that we are going to continue warming until infinity and beyond, so we'll see....just my hunch. I love people who claim that their "opinions" are 110% grounded in objectivity-bullshit. The evidence is, or should be, however, there is an inherent element of subjectivity to the conceptualization that we arrive at given the facts at hand. No one definitively knows what our climate will look like in 100 years, and those who claim that they do are full of shit....whether or not they have any insight into said cognitive fecal matter is another issue entirely. Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. I think I relate to his philosophical approach. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere and planet tried to establish an equilibrium after the Super Nino. With some data showing earth briefly getting to 2C in 2027 (which is crazy) a pullback is possible, if not likely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere and planet tried to establish an equilibrium after the Super Nino. With some data showing earth briefly getting to 2C in 2027 (which is crazy) a pullback is possible, if not likely. The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Looks like this latest WWB was the strongest of the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Bookmarked it! Looks great! Just one question, any idea why the CANSIPS seasonal looks quite different than on tropical tidbits? It's always possible a mistake was made, especially considering the massive amount of things I am working on to get it live. I will take a second pass on the cansips to see if I messed something up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, that is your site? Awesome job! My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies. Yep! I will put this on my list to get fixed. Appreciate the tip. I am having a lot of fun with it though like wishcasting a SSW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Yeah, but what is equilibrium when d(C) is not only positive, but d(d(C)) at that. The second derivative being the acceleration quotient. That means that any return state is returning a higher level. So if the idea is to return below the warmer state, that basis has changed higher. Climate doesn't move that fast, no. But as 2023 evinces ... the jolt by .5 and holding there, probably was a two-fold factorization of the Earth being behind schedule in warming - so a bit of a restoring force, while also having the longer term slope of changing positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, but was is equilibrium when d(C) is not only positive, but d(d(C)) at that. The second derivative being the acceleration quotient. That means that any return state is returning a higher level. So if the idea is to return below the warmer state, that basis has changed higher. Climate doesn't move that fast, no. But as 2023 evinces ... the jolt by .5 and holding there, probably was a two-fold factorization of the Earth being behind schedule in warming - so a bit of a restoring force, while also having the longer term slope of changing positive. I'm not suggesting that we are going back to the 60s in a few years, so I think we're on the same page there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 4 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Agree! I was referring to Roundy was talking about the extreme heat release of the 97-98 El Nino was for the most part what led to a 12-16 yr hiatus in global temps. He thinks this El Nino will do the same. Talked about how the 2022-23 Nino released an enormous amount of heat & with this true Super event on its heels we might see a peak, crash, leveling off of global temps for a few years. Paul is very unorthodox by mainstream, in his views of CC. His views are certainly relevant considering he is a freaking giant in Atmospheric Science. He is not a denier of CC but a strong rejector of "Climate Alarmists" & "Political Activism" getting remotely close to any branch of science. He gets annoyed with so many of the public blabbers have not a clue about the climate mechanisms they talk about. the hypothesis that your username is based on fell apart 10 years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 https://sustainability.gatech.edu/hg/news/2013/10/10/stadium-waves-could-explain-lull-global-warming “The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s," said Wyatt, an independent scientist after having earned her Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 2012. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 price is right losing horn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annunciated Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 It appears a very small area of +11C has been detected in the ENSO subsurfaces. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: https://sustainability.gatech.edu/hg/news/2013/10/10/stadium-waves-could-explain-lull-global-warming “The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s," said Wyatt, an independent scientist after having earned her Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 2012. yeah mid 20th century lull came from sulfur which blocks solar radiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Curry added, "This prediction is in contrast to the recently released IPCC AR5 Report that projects an imminent resumption of the warming, likely to be in the range of a 0.3 to 0.7 degree Celsius rise in global mean surface temperature from 2016 to 2035." the ipcc wound up being too conservative. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Curry also added: "The stadiumwave has been successfully achieved in a packed stadium or other large seated venues, when successive groups of spectators briefly stand and raise their arms. Immediately upon stretching to full height, the spectator returns to the usual seated position." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 2 hours ago, annunciated said: It appears a very small area of +11C has been detected in the ENSO subsurfaces. Jesus. Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annunciated Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally. Interpreting from ARMOR3D's measurements, not only does it span actually about 3,500 miles but also likely has the width of roughly 3-4 degrees of latitude (2N-2S) and a depth of 25 meters on average. The energy required to heat a specific area like that to +10C is ridiculous. If it's anywhere in the >10^16 joule range, which I believe it is, good luck producing that unnaturally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth. I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity? Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Going to be very interesting to see if we get 'normal' El Nino conditions here. So far the Summer here has been about as hot as ever recorded, with near record low precipitation as well. 2023 was even drier in the Summer, but we're running hotter. Summer has been very close to 1953, 1958, 2023 as a blend, all the sort of drought plagued, -PDO, El Nino, very +AMO shit years locally. It's actually been very interesting - for the past month little batches of rain showers have formed late evening almost every night. But they are widely scattered and have only brought drizzle to the city most nights. A lot of the terrible monsoon years don't even have the showers form. But they typically perform best for rainfall late afternoon to about 8 pm. We've seen showers develop in the 8 pm to 2 am time frame and then sizzle out, which is unusual here for formation time. The Atlantic has really warmed up quite a bit relative to averages over the past 2-3 weeks. I think we will actually see a brief period of decent hurricane season activity in September. My hottest average temperature El Nino Summers are these winters: 1994, 2023, (2003 borderline El Nino), 1958, 2018, 1953, 2002. We tend to get fluky out-of-season heavy snow events following very hot and very dry Summers here. 1994-95 snowed a lot in April, 1953-54 in November, 2002-03 in March, 1958-59 in March, 2023-24 in November. Several of these also see good snow in the main winter too. My guess is the MJO will set up to favor bigger storms nationally in something like an Oct 15-->Nov 30-->Jan 15-->Mar 1-->Apr 15 fashion for major events given the local Summer data supports unusual concentration of heavy snow events in Nov/Mar/Apr so far, more than the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially: Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 6 hours ago, GaWx said: The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially: Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior: It's been waxing and waning since February came into view. If you go to the actual Cfs2 site and check out the monthly forecasts, it's a little colder than what the TT site shows due to different time periods. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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