2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. 

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

[EasternLI]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens!

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter. 

I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them.