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Everything posted by annunciated
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There comes a point until you have to question if trolling is the only source of entertainment for 'em, because it appears as if it were so. Sad, if true. -
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Interpreting from ARMOR3D's measurements, not only does it span actually about 3,500 miles but also likely has the width of roughly 3-4 degrees of latitude (2N-2S) and a depth of 25 meters on average. The energy required to heat a specific area like that to +10C is ridiculous. If it's anywhere in the >10^16 joule range, which I believe it is, good luck producing that unnaturally. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's why the notion from some people that this is the Nino of the Millenium (250-1000 years in some Xwitter post) is just crazy, and yet again, it's great for clicks. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's good for Jamstec that it can spot that SE US cold anomaly that far out, especially if it does bad in the mid latitudes...and also assuming it verifies cold, lol. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
i bet on that day he would make his responses just days later or even lurk with some emoticons on different posts...I was wrong, lol. EDIT: Small banter, sorry! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Perhaps for us southerners and those in the Mid-Atlantic region, but we definitely need those cold shots from the polar jet to cooperate. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I was pretty astonished in July that it was hovering at the freezing line and are indeed astonished now it remained that way through peak summer heating at the poles. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
His latest video is... interesting; calls for Coastal California and Oregon to get higher than avg. snow totals but not much of the Southern Rockies (@ "slightly above avg.") whom have a naturally greater shot of getting into those colder temps. I can somewhat agree with the rest, but it's easy to say that we only have broader hints of the setup ahead of us rather than patterns we can forecast weeks or a month/two in advance...not 4-6 months. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We need a little more luck down here in GA, but otherwise I do agree! We have to just wait and see. -
Just for fun, could you do KFFC (Atlanta)? Copernicus hadn't updated their datasets yet so I can't fetch it.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If I cant find any plots that show above 4C for AAM, then I'll have to compute to see what it is, but I'd really like to see the maxima on these runs because my goodness...lol -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
At that point further north, you're essentially trading cold(er) air for potential improvements in moisture, if perhaps a greater risk for ice. In my opinion, that could cancel out the warmth's detrimental effects if not add to the snow total average if you can get a good background pattern instead of the polar jet constantly lagging back into Canada. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Good thing NA is on the verge of its cooling-off phase here in the troposphere; it'll be good to see the STJ start to go in a month or two as that temp. gradient becomes apparent -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks to me we will have another WWB in a week or so. The ECMWF suite, AIFS especially, has been pretty consistent on this signal for a few days now.
