2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That ridge is going to lift towards Greenland on the heels of the latter January/eary February reflection event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

Not in the seasonal mean, no.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

Now there it is, that’s what we want. I hope the bad look is more confined to December. We’ve lost too many februaries in the last several years

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It worked in 09-10 but that’s because there was a TPV anchored near James Bay that could phase with these pacific systems. Without that, we’re just relying on dynamic cooling which tends to only favor snow for the mountains. Pacific jet is also usually too strong to allow a TPV to anchor up there. 

PNA was positive every month in 09-10. That is not showing +pna. PNA was +1.25 in Jan 10 and +2 in March 10. 

[JACKASS]

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What are your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What’s your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.

[JACKASS]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.

Maybe it’s just me, but a warmer and wetter winter, just has me on edge for freezing rain.

Which I despise for obvious reasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What are your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

Memorable one? Same odds as a HECS....gonna be about timing things right when the pattern is more conducive in the back half. EPO is likely + in the seasonal mean, so need to score on a window.

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic getting repeated rainstorm cycles in August?

Everything with the Record Nino is right on track.

This, is gonnabe good!

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Jebman said:

Well, I now live in a rather dry part of the country, near Austin, TX. I have been down here since Aug 26, 2018. It's been 8 years. I am REALLY looking forward to any extra rain that the record Nino can give us, and I KNOW that the Southeastern US is gonna get waterworlded BAD by this enso event. DMV Region, too.

I think that there will be a few times this winter when extreme moisture in the DC region will meet up with Arctic air and they could see some new snow records get set.

You live in the DC area, might want to stock up on food, beer, hundreds of your favorite IPA's, salt, shovels and snowblowers.

Just in case.....

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow.

I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. 

DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/14/2026 at 6:40 PM, EasternLI said:

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

How could there possibly have been a 4 year el nino in the late 1700s? That has to be fiction. What we did have back then was a gigantic volcanic eruption in Iceland called Toba and that altered our climate in a big way for years to come.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/15/2026 at 8:43 AM, LakePaste25 said:

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

I thought so too but there were some amazing and widespread heat waves back then that haven't been matched since. Early July 1911 is a case in point. Mount Pocono was 98, 99 and 103 for three straight days and has never been higher than 95 since then. I thought this had to be an instrument error but then I saw Boston all time high of 104 is from the same period and even the mountains of northern New England were over 100 degrees. That was some mega heat dome and for reference a 103 degree reading at Mount Pocono is a sea level adjusted temperature of 114 degrees!

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow.

I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. 

DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

Thanks, michsnowfreak! We will probably get some rain from this. One snow could sneak in.

Look out in Detroit. Some of the moisture will get up there and you are definitely cold enough for snow! You guys could get TROWELed real hard with snow a few times! Yeah, I think DC will get slammed by nor'easters quite a bit this winter, some of which could be a ton of very deep wind-driven snow! They might end up crawling out of second-story windows in NW DC!

[roardog]

I’ve been on these boards for over 25 years and I’ve yet to find a more optimistic poster than jebman. 

[mitchnick]

WxBell winter forecast and discussion. I think the maps were previously posted, but maybe not the discussion with analogs.

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2026-27-preview

[EasternLI]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How could there possibly have been a 4 year el nino in the late 1700s? That has to be fiction. What we did have back then was a gigantic volcanic eruption in Iceland called Toba and that altered our climate in a big way for years to come.

Yeah, thought that was odd too. 

[bluewave]

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.

 

 

 

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push - does the early growth implicate a greater amplitude result.

It may sort of plateau?   Like I wonder if there's a ceiling - in fact, there has to be. There's only so much thermally available in the global system.  

That is why I suspect a plateauing of sorts might be observed if this rise continues to be absurd so early... We hit a max earlier in the autumn and it levels out..etc.

The thermal input into the ENSO warm mode is barrowed from the surrounding planetary system from two sources. 

The first being additive by solar flux.

The second being a complex heredity.  

These sources can only give so much - and they may in fact be down(up) maxes due to variable ongoing constraints year-to-year.  

In this situation, the antecedence is definitely providing an impressive warm heritage. What, with the global atmosphere and oceanic ongoing empirical data hovering the curves in top 3 months and months on end, occasionally toeing them in first place along the way.  It's like a dad that is 6'9" tall, and a mom that is and unusual-for-female height of 6'1", having a son together - gee, why is our kid 7'1" by 17 years of age.  Enter NBA scouts... 

When the winds turned, the background available source and state is thus so favorable ... it's like an explosive warm ENSO growth.   But, that kid isn't going to be taller than Robert Wadlow's GOAT altitude of 8'11.1" at the time he had grown to death basically.  Just 22 years of age.  Actually, the gentle giant required ankle braces that were specially fabricated by cutting edge early last century prosthetic science ... This caused an abrasion sore that got infected and then he died of sepsis.  It's thought that he'd grown so much that his circulatory system was inadequate, lending to the infection fester.  Little bit of useless trivia... haha.  Can you imagine seeing a human being that is just one foot less than a basket ball rim?

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Jebman said:

Thanks, michsnowfreak! We will probably get some rain from this. One snow could sneak in.

Look out in Detroit. Some of the moisture will get up there and you are definitely cold enough for snow! You guys could get TROWELed real hard with snow a few times! Yeah, I think DC will get slammed by nor'easters quite a bit this winter, some of which could be a ton of very deep wind-driven snow! They might end up crawling out of second-story windows in NW DC!

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they.

Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push.

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

Carryover Ninos/ENSO neutral are usually a gold mine for E US winters. Another reason I want this El Niño to be as strong as possible. 

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

As someone who lives in the la Nina screw zone (central MD) if we gotta get one I'd much rather it be the earlier 27-28 and  28-29 (because they always seem to double-dip) so we can maybe try for another nino for low solar minimum time 

[donsutherland1]

The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here.  It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too.  Like two factored:  seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? 

It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon.   "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing.  Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down.  Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really.  I mean it may be that the definition can apply?  But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal.  'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas.  Whole nother weirdness...

Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. 

So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same.  And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/17/2026 at 9:12 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

On more of a personal note ... if this ensuing "winter" isn't going to deliver - which frankly, having a CC as a launch pad upon which a warm ENSO of this ilk is sky rocketing off of, heh ... ah - good luck.  Sounds like a warm synergistic massacre..  Not helping that we've had this upstream active solar disk fire hosing the 150 thru 1 kPa depths over the Pole for the last year.  Anyway, I just would rather not have any of it because 4 months on mud as a season, in the dark, is some kind of middle earth dystopian shit.

I'm not saying I don't have appreciation ( and hope ) for fantastic winter patterns and consequence.  But having a passion and fascination for winter weather events, quite necessarily needs to be fed winter events; it does not include the dreaded 42 F winter.

The problem is, it takes a denier at this point to not sense the growing dearth of decent winters. Or at least it seems that way. A stab at an objective opinion here ..., let's see:  CC + history-making warm ENSO --> plausible synergistic emergence between those not necessarily meaning cold (duh) + solar-cleansed stratosphere + this ...

...occurring under a lowering boreal heights?

Explosive potential.  Absolutely!  That unfortunately does not include a cold or cryo-profile, necessarily.

By and large, the last impressive winter, IMHO, goes all the way back to 2014-2015... and it wasn't actually the whole winter. And, it didn't really involve the larger community?   Mainly a SNE/CNE affair.  We just had 3 1/2 weeks of utter carnage in those sub-forum regions during February 2015; so overwhelming ... the constituency of these regions think that winter was phenomenal. I think that 3 1/2 weeks was a "planetary storm" - a concept pushed forth by a theoretical Met back in the last Century but damn! that was a great argument for his conjecture. Not sure that was a whole winter, though.  I guess in fairness, getting 150 to 300% of normal whole season's snow, amid lung aching cold ... probably should qualify the whole winter?  

I don't need all that.  Just give us a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern.  There'll be potential to do more along the way.  Maybe one will blockbuster.  Otherwise, if I were god, I would make it 60 F with frequent runs at 70, in some sort of freak show scary warm time of it, so that I can continue with outdoor activities and just deal with 16 hours of darkness days.   Also, I would look up all my enemies and afflict them with a kitchen renovation project - having been suffering this fuckin thing going on weeks now ... I've seriously gazed out at sunsets while deeply reconsidering life choices.  

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more-

JK

[Keith Central PA]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more-

JK

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here.  It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too.  Like two factored:  seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? 

It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon.   "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing.  Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down.  Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really.  I mean it may be that the definition can apply?  But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal.  'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas.  Whole nother weirdness...

Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. 

So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same.  And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol. Remember, slightly warmer winter temps in some places are BETTER for snowfall, not worse.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol.

Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere.