2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Bad guess!

There's no 500mb map on this site, but 700mb will be close enough at this point.

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

It worked in 09-10 but that’s because there was a TPV anchored near James Bay that could phase with these pacific systems. Without that, we’re just relying on dynamic cooling which tends to only favor snow for the mountains. Pacific jet is also usually too strong to allow a TPV to anchor up there. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

It's a 3 month average and Cfs2 is showing on the monthly forecasts that December's a dumpster fire and February looks workable to great. So you're going to get goofy 3 month averages. 

[EasternLI]

CPC MJO update from today confirming the mid month constructive interference that was targeted and verified. Culminating in the current WWB activity. Also the difficulty in identifying the MJO due to the strong Nino. The propagation though the western hemisphere was making me think a recurving typhoon was possible as a consequence of that. But that looks like a failed idea on most recent guidance. So still waiting on that. A selection of the bullet points from the update below:

 

• The strong El Niño continues to be the major influence on anomalous rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) development throughout the global tropics.

• During mid-August, the MJO began to constructively interfere with the strong El Niño similar to what occurred in July.

• The MJO is expected to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during late August and then shift back to the Indian Ocean by early September.

• The strong El Niño and a favorable MJO are likely to result in multiple TCs developing over the East Pacific through the end of August. However, a robust monsoon response in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is not expected.

• High shear, associated with El Niño, will continue to inhibit TC formation in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

• A wave-1 pattern persisted in the global upper-level velocity potential fields predominantly tied to the strong El Niño.

• Although the strong El Niño is the main influence on the velocity potential anomalies, the MJO recently shifted east across the Pacific which led to the largest anomalous upper-level divergence in the past six months. 

• As the enhanced phase of MJO constructively interfered with the El Niño base state during early to mid-August, the RMM index exited the unit circle in Phase 6.  

• This behavior of the RMM based signal is very similar to the path taken earlier this summer. 

• Positive SST anomalies continue over the central and eastern Pacific, with anomalies now at 1.8°C across NINO 3.4.  NINO 4 has gradually cooled during the past several weeks, associated with increased cloudiness over the region.  

• Remarkably strong positive subsurface temperature anomalies (> 2.5°C) persist across the Eastern Pacific.

• Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward to near the Date Line.

• A majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members depict the RMM index remaining over phases 6 and 7 due to the strong El Niño. It is difficult to discern the MJO evolution during the next month. 

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That ridge is going to lift towards Greenland on the heels of the latter January/eary February reflection event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

Not in the seasonal mean, no.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

Now there it is, that’s what we want. I hope the bad look is more confined to December. We’ve lost too many februaries in the last several years

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It worked in 09-10 but that’s because there was a TPV anchored near James Bay that could phase with these pacific systems. Without that, we’re just relying on dynamic cooling which tends to only favor snow for the mountains. Pacific jet is also usually too strong to allow a TPV to anchor up there. 

PNA was positive every month in 09-10. That is not showing +pna. PNA was +1.25 in Jan 10 and +2 in March 10. 

[JACKASS]

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What are your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What’s your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.

[JACKASS]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.

Maybe it’s just me, but a warmer and wetter winter, just has me on edge for freezing rain.

Which I despise for obvious reasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What are your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

Memorable one? Same odds as a HECS....gonna be about timing things right when the pattern is more conducive in the back half. EPO is likely + in the seasonal mean, so need to score on a window.

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic getting repeated rainstorm cycles in August?

Everything with the Record Nino is right on track.

This, is gonnabe good!

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Jebman said:

Well, I now live in a rather dry part of the country, near Austin, TX. I have been down here since Aug 26, 2018. It's been 8 years. I am REALLY looking forward to any extra rain that the record Nino can give us, and I KNOW that the Southeastern US is gonna get waterworlded BAD by this enso event. DMV Region, too.

I think that there will be a few times this winter when extreme moisture in the DC region will meet up with Arctic air and they could see some new snow records get set.

You live in the DC area, might want to stock up on food, beer, hundreds of your favorite IPA's, salt, shovels and snowblowers.

Just in case.....

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow.

I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. 

DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/14/2026 at 6:40 PM, EasternLI said:

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

How could there possibly have been a 4 year el nino in the late 1700s? That has to be fiction. What we did have back then was a gigantic volcanic eruption in Iceland called Toba and that altered our climate in a big way for years to come.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/15/2026 at 8:43 AM, LakePaste25 said:

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

I thought so too but there were some amazing and widespread heat waves back then that haven't been matched since. Early July 1911 is a case in point. Mount Pocono was 98, 99 and 103 for three straight days and has never been higher than 95 since then. I thought this had to be an instrument error but then I saw Boston all time high of 104 is from the same period and even the mountains of northern New England were over 100 degrees. That was some mega heat dome and for reference a 103 degree reading at Mount Pocono is a sea level adjusted temperature of 114 degrees!

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow.

I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. 

DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

Thanks, michsnowfreak! We will probably get some rain from this. One snow could sneak in.

Look out in Detroit. Some of the moisture will get up there and you are definitely cold enough for snow! You guys could get TROWELed real hard with snow a few times! Yeah, I think DC will get slammed by nor'easters quite a bit this winter, some of which could be a ton of very deep wind-driven snow! They might end up crawling out of second-story windows in NW DC!

[roardog]

I’ve been on these boards for over 25 years and I’ve yet to find a more optimistic poster than jebman. 

[mitchnick]

WxBell winter forecast and discussion. I think the maps were previously posted, but maybe not the discussion with analogs.

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2026-27-preview

[EasternLI]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How could there possibly have been a 4 year el nino in the late 1700s? That has to be fiction. What we did have back then was a gigantic volcanic eruption in Iceland called Toba and that altered our climate in a big way for years to come.

Yeah, thought that was odd too. 

[bluewave]

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.

 

 

 

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push - does the early growth implicate a greater amplitude result.

It may sort of plateau?   Like I wonder if there's a ceiling - in fact, there has to be. There's only so much thermally available in the global system.  

That is why I suspect a plateauing of sorts might be observed if this rise continues to be absurd so early... We hit a max earlier in the autumn and it levels out..etc.

The thermal input into the ENSO warm mode is barrowed from the surrounding planetary system from two sources. 

The first being additive by solar flux.

The second being a complex heredity.  

These sources can only give so much - and they may in fact be down(up) maxes due to variable ongoing constraints year-to-year.  

In this situation, the antecedence is definitely providing an impressive warm heritage. What, with the global atmosphere and oceanic ongoing empirical data hovering the curves in top 3 months and months on end, occasionally toeing them in first place along the way.  It's like a dad that is 6'9" tall, and a mom that is and unusual-for-female height of 6'1", having a son together - gee, why is our kid 7'1" by 17 years of age.  Enter NBA scouts... 

When the winds turned, the background available source and state is thus so favorable ... it's like an explosive warm ENSO growth.   But, that kid isn't going to be taller than Robert Wadlow's GOAT altitude of 8'11.1" at the time he had grown to death basically.  Just 22 years of age.  Actually, the gentle giant required ankle braces that were specially fabricated by cutting edge early last century prosthetic science ... This caused an abrasion sore that got infected and then he died of sepsis.  It's thought that he'd grown so much that his circulatory system was inadequate, lending to the infection fester.  Little bit of useless trivia... haha.  Can you imagine seeing a human being that is just one foot less than a basket ball rim?

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Jebman said:

Thanks, michsnowfreak! We will probably get some rain from this. One snow could sneak in.

Look out in Detroit. Some of the moisture will get up there and you are definitely cold enough for snow! You guys could get TROWELed real hard with snow a few times! Yeah, I think DC will get slammed by nor'easters quite a bit this winter, some of which could be a ton of very deep wind-driven snow! They might end up crawling out of second-story windows in NW DC!

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they.

Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push.

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

Carryover Ninos/ENSO neutral are usually a gold mine for E US winters. Another reason I want this El Niño to be as strong as possible. 

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The answer to this question will determine if there is a backlash, strong la nina or a carryover el nino in 2027-28. If it peaks early, then it will have a head start to a developing a strong la nina (just look at the transition to la nina in 1988). If it peaks in the climo window, we'll probably have a slower decay, and have a carryover el nino in 2027-28, before we go la nina in 2028-29.

As someone who lives in the la Nina screw zone (central MD) if we gotta get one I'd much rather it be the earlier 27-28 and  28-29 (because they always seem to double-dip) so we can maybe try for another nino for low solar minimum time 

[donsutherland1]

The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.