Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria. 

It def seems to be honing in on Groton up to about ORH on east

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It def seems to be honing in on Groton up to about ORH on east

What a year for the CT shoreline…And  there’s 6.5 weeks left to go…

[wxsniss]

19z NBM ticked up again

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

[NoCORH4L]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been 2-4” all areas for several days with ratios and some zone is getting 6-10”. Not that it’s correct but Euro has had the same dong zone for several runs now .

I think I found the slant stick ruler to use for this storm? 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

What about the rest of us? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

What about the rest of us? 

Coating to 2”

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria. 

Agreed.  The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up.  A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”, or more.

00z NAM likes Essex County.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up.  A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”. 

The soundings are quite unstable in the lower to midlevels. If you can localize a little extra lift in that type of sounding, then you can get some surprises that happen quickly. 

[UnitedWx]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

Yes, and no dry dong look for the CTRV... so it's probably wrong 

[TalcottWx]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What about the rest of us? 

 

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Coating to 2”

So it's a garbage storm for us, got it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 Regardless of amounts…the weekend winter vibes continue. 

[DirtySnowDen]

Is it possible this a Norlun-esque type of deal? Where it’s not well-forecasted on the models, but the quick intrusion of Arctic air causes chaos as it hits the Atlantic?

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria. 

Yep... I think it is now a foregone conclusion that there are going to be a couple of sweet spots... Lots of support, in my opinion, for a solid 3-5 inch zone across southeast CT northward along and either side of the CT/RI border area (I-395 corridor) eastward across much of RI; possibly parts of the Cape... But I expect a high-end advisory level / low-grade warning (4-8") somewhere in eastern Mass but not locked into the specific zone at this time; probably a nowcast call just before it really shows itself.

[vortex95]

It's PT time for CoastalWx!  RRFS FTW! 

Such a slow evolution of the 500 trough over New England Sat-Sun.  It just doesn't sweep though, it elongates and cuts off for some really good OES weenie bands IMHO.  500 temps drops as low as -38 C, which is about as cold as you will see them in the NEUS.  -40 C at 500 in the CONUS does not happen too often, and I think the limit at 500 for temps is around -50 C (coldest I have seen in NAMR is -51 C).  There is some physical atmospheric reason why it can't get colder than this I recall, but I forget the reason why.

 

[Roger Smith]

7 hours ago, JACKASS said:

Friday?

Tomorrow?

Thought I was in the cold weather discussion for some reason. 

More general comment, this will be a low pressure system with no real warm sector, there's never a notable rise in thickness before it begins to fall off during the IVT formation Friday night. It will be a case of cold air becoming saturated then a stronger northerly wind setting in, as temperatures drop further. Peak temperatures may only be around 25-28 F for many as the snow begins to fall. This low is going to lose its identity while the coastal develops and a "norlun" or IVT forms. Interesting evolution. 2-4" snow potential in places given that ratios will be quite good (15 to 20 : 1 )

Note there is some very cold air in central Quebec waiting to push into this developing IVT and that may cancel out any WAA from the west-northwest. Watch temperature trends in Ohio and Pennsylvania as the dying low approaches. 

[ineedsnow]

0z really beefed up more.. let's continue the trend 

[ineedsnow]

6z HRRR beefing up here!! We take

[ineedsnow]

[wxsniss]

[wxsniss]

Rather dynamic pattern for Fri night into Sat as deep mid level
trough amplifies across New Eng and eventually takes on negative
tilt, with 700 mb low eventually developing south of New Eng Sat
afternoon. Strong height falls developing off the coast will lead to
cyclogenesis well offshore on Saturday, but given the strong
upstream trough there will be an inverted trough that develops and
extends across New Eng. Increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough and low level convergence with the inverted trough combined
with deepening moisture plume with near saturation through the mid
levels will result in widespread snow developing from late evening
through Saturday. The snow should taper off in the afternoon in
western New Eng behind the arctic front, while becoming more focused
in eastern MA. Interesting set up as snow will be moving in from the
west ahead of the trough, but hi-res guidance shows also bands of
snow moving into eastern MA from the ocean later tonight through
Sat from convergent NE flow ahead of the arctic front.

The bands moving in from the ocean and the inverted trough are
wildcards to the snow forecast. These inverted troughs are often
associated with narrow mesoscale bands of enhanced snowfall where
the low level convergence sets up. We also have potential for
localized snow squalls along the arctic front. There are decent
model signals given strong low level frontogenesis, relatively steep
0-3km lapse rates and some low level CAPE. Snow squall parameter is
highlighted across eastern New Eng Sat afternoon. In addition, model
soundings show very favorable snow growth for a few hours in eastern
New Eng with 20-30 units of omega in the DGZ suggesting locally
brief heavy snowfall rates of 1"+/hr within any enhanced snow bands.
However, forecasting the exact location and axis of where these
heavier snow bands is very challenging often leading to low
confidence forecasts in location of potentially higher impact
snowfall. This is a situation where snowfall amounts can vary
greatly over short distances.

[mahk_webstah]

Wunderground for here keeps increasing.  Now 5-8, but nws is 1-3.  What models is Wunderground using?  I expect nws to win that battle but clearly some uncertainties and wildcards abound

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Beefy 

[SouthCoastMA]

Another tblizz mehracle ?

[CT Rain]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

 Another Kuchera

[HoarfrostHubb]

So many koochies lately

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 Another Kuchera

Like I said. It’s like talking to a wall when you ask not to post them.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie still going wild on coastal Essex county.

[Damage In Tolland]

I thought Kuchera was good for high ratios?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought Kuchera was good for high ratios?

Just use precip map and multiply by what you think ratios will be.. It will be very windy so ratios won't be maximized..