Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria. 

It def seems to be honing in on Groton up to about ORH on east

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It def seems to be honing in on Groton up to about ORH on east

What a year for the CT shoreline…And  there’s 6.5 weeks left to go…

[wxsniss]

19z NBM ticked up again

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

[NoCORH4L]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been 2-4” all areas for several days with ratios and some zone is getting 6-10”. Not that it’s correct but Euro has had the same dong zone for several runs now .

I think I found the slant stick ruler to use for this storm? 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

What about the rest of us? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

What about the rest of us? 

Coating to 2”

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria. 

Agreed.  The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up.  A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”, or more.

00z NAM likes Essex County.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up.  A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”. 

The soundings are quite unstable in the lower to midlevels. If you can localize a little extra lift in that type of sounding, then you can get some surprises that happen quickly. 

[UnitedWx]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

Yes, and no dry dong look for the CTRV... so it's probably wrong 

[TalcottWx]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What about the rest of us? 

 

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Coating to 2”

So it's a garbage storm for us, got it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 Regardless of amounts…the weekend winter vibes continue. 

[DirtySnowDen]

Is it possible this a Norlun-esque type of deal? Where it’s not well-forecasted on the models, but the quick intrusion of Arctic air causes chaos as it hits the Atlantic?

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria. 

Yep... I think it is now a foregone conclusion that there are going to be a couple of sweet spots... Lots of support, in my opinion, for a solid 3-5 inch zone across southeast CT northward along and either side of the CT/RI border area (I-395 corridor) eastward across much of RI; possibly parts of the Cape... But I expect a high-end advisory level / low-grade warning (4-8") somewhere in eastern Mass but not locked into the specific zone at this time; probably a nowcast call just before it really shows itself.

[vortex95]

It's PT time for CoastalWx!  RRFS FTW! 

Such a slow evolution of the 500 trough over New England Sat-Sun.  It just doesn't sweep though, it elongates and cuts off for some really good OES weenie bands IMHO.  500 temps drops as low as -38 C, which is about as cold as you will see them in the NEUS.  -40 C at 500 in the CONUS does not happen too often, and I think the limit at 500 for temps is around -50 C (coldest I have seen in NAMR is -51 C).  There is some physical atmospheric reason why it can't get colder than this I recall, but I forget the reason why.