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2/6-7: Clipper Pack Refresher


bncho
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@WxUSAF I believe the afternoon AFD from LWX answers your question from earlier re extreme cold warning in the metros 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
309 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few additional expansion of Cold Weather and Wind Advisories
to cover the rest of the central VA Piedmont. Low Water
Advisories also issued for likely impactful blowout tide
Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging
  winds Saturday.

- 2) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late
  this morning through Saturday morning.

- 3) A warming trend in temperatures is expected early next
  week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and
damaging winds Saturday.

There is extremely high confidence in a prolonged period of
dangerous, life-threatening wind chills (paired with strong to
damaging winds) across the area Saturday morning through Sunday
morning. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are
in place across the entire forecast area from tonight through
Sunday morning.

A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with
arctic high pressure moving in from Canada that yields a very
tight pressure gradient across the area. A strengthening LLJ at
850-925mb that crosses the area Saturday morning will support
the mixing of stronger winds down to the surface.

A sudden onset of strong winds is expected right as the Arctic
front passes through, which looks to be between 1AM to 6AM from
northwest to southeast. Winds are going to rapidly increase
from 5-10 mph to gusting 30-40 mph in tens of minutes, with
gusts of 50-60 mph mixed in there. Wind gusts then remain steady
at 45-55 mph through Saturday evening, with embedded gusts of
60-70 mph at times (higher gusts possible in the mountains). The
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through
Saturday evening for the entire area.

Wind chills are forecast to crash below zero by daybreak
Saturday, and remain below zero through at least late Sunday
morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge wind chills bottom
out between -20F to -30F, and possibly as cold as -40F at Spruce
Knob. Elsewhere, wind chills as low as -10F to -20F are
expected.

This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its
predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC
and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go). The
current forecast has between 24-30 hours of wind chills below
zero over most of the area from Saturday early morning to Sunday
late morning. It has been over 30 years since this area has
observed this long a period of sub-zero wind chills, last
occurring on January 15-16, 1994 (when wind chills below zero
lasted upwards of 30-36 hours).

Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to
damaging winds will have. Tree and powerlines damage is
possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews
will not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind
chills decrease on Sunday. Anyone without proper clothing will
be at risk of frostbite in as little as 30 minutes, with less
time in the mountains where lower wind chills are expected.
 
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29 minutes ago, yoda said:

@WxUSAF I believe the afternoon AFD from LWX answers your question from earlier re extreme cold warning in the metros 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
309 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few additional expansion of Cold Weather and Wind Advisories
to cover the rest of the central VA Piedmont. Low Water
Advisories also issued for likely impactful blowout tide
Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging
  winds Saturday.

- 2) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late
  this morning through Saturday morning.

- 3) A warming trend in temperatures is expected early next
  week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and
damaging winds Saturday.

There is extremely high confidence in a prolonged period of
dangerous, life-threatening wind chills (paired with strong to
damaging winds) across the area Saturday morning through Sunday
morning. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are
in place across the entire forecast area from tonight through
Sunday morning.

A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with
arctic high pressure moving in from Canada that yields a very
tight pressure gradient across the area. A strengthening LLJ at
850-925mb that crosses the area Saturday morning will support
the mixing of stronger winds down to the surface.

A sudden onset of strong winds is expected right as the Arctic
front passes through, which looks to be between 1AM to 6AM from
northwest to southeast. Winds are going to rapidly increase
from 5-10 mph to gusting 30-40 mph in tens of minutes, with
gusts of 50-60 mph mixed in there. Wind gusts then remain steady
at 45-55 mph through Saturday evening, with embedded gusts of
60-70 mph at times (higher gusts possible in the mountains). The
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through
Saturday evening for the entire area.

Wind chills are forecast to crash below zero by daybreak
Saturday, and remain below zero through at least late Sunday
morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge wind chills bottom
out between -20F to -30F, and possibly as cold as -40F at Spruce
Knob. Elsewhere, wind chills as low as -10F to -20F are
expected.

This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its
predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC
and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go). The
current forecast has between 24-30 hours of wind chills below
zero over most of the area from Saturday early morning to Sunday
late morning. It has been over 30 years since this area has
observed this long a period of sub-zero wind chills, last
occurring on January 15-16, 1994 (when wind chills below zero
lasted upwards of 30-36 hours).

Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to
damaging winds will have. Tree and powerlines damage is
possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews
will not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind
chills decrease on Sunday. Anyone without proper clothing will
be at risk of frostbite in as little as 30 minutes, with less
time in the mountains where lower wind chills are expected.
 

Intense AF. Love write ups like this

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I am sure the forecast for strong winds is correct but note they occur because of the offshore development, right now the north wind behind the cold front in Ontario is only 20-30 mph. Temperature does drop very quickly with the front which is now about one-third of the way through Lake Huron (and halfway through Georgian Bay). It should go through Toronto around 7 p.m. EST and then it accelerates because it is racing to catch up to the offshore low starting to develop tonight. There was never much of a warm sector once this system left the plains states and prairies. Temperatures are not even going to spike at all ahead of this front now. With a light SW wind Buffalo NY is only 22 F. Moderate northerly at Sudbury ON and -4 F. 

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