Is we back? February discussion thread

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That was wire to wire frigid.

Throw in the final grinding months of a world war and the deadliest pandemic since the Bubonic plague to boot. Now is the winter of our discontent. 

[ariof]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the extreme cold is done....March 2018 wasn't that cold.

 

It felt cold after Feb '18, the last two weeks of which had nearly as many days in Boston above 70 (2) as below 30 (two days in the upper 20s).

March was a -1.1 anomaly, which put it 1° colder than February, overall, and other than the first day and the last few, it didn't hit 50° in Boston all month. 21" of snow at BOS, 42 at ORH, and I think Mitch got about 18 feet.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Rad pits shining

 

Look at all that fake cold, Probably the fake of all fakes this season.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Look at all that fake cold, Probably the fake of all fakes this season.

I always like seeing maps like that on a sunny morning and knowing temps will be making a big jump. Sanford -3 while Mt Wash is +1.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Look at all that fake cold, Probably the fake of all fakes this season.

Saw -10F on the car with like rimed trees at home and then glorious and warm at 1500ft. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I always like seeing maps like that on a sunny morning and knowing temps will be making a big jump. Sanford -3 while Mt Wash is +1.

Yes, Bit breezy overnight here and this morning, Mix that down to the surface and mid 30's will be had.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd take that over 24/5 just because it's nicer feeling and living in that...    pretty simple.  lol

Sign me up for 24/5...

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

qc schmegma said winter was over yesterday. 

euro/gfs/AIs all looking good

well he's a fuckin' moron, so..............

[Typhoon Tip]

Prolly not the right forum for this but ... once again, Earth tries to hide the real state of the planet from the policy makers of the U.S.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Prolly not the right forum for this but ... once again, Earth tries to hide the real state of the planet from the policy makers of the U.S.

Burn those fossil fuels baby. Pump those emissions into my lungs.

 

But omg they’re poisoning us with chemtrails.

[dendrite]

Wolfie just hit a moose seeing that while riding to Allagash.

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON EPS even closer and still interesting.. everything else pretty meh

[Ocean Effect]

 

Define Irony, bunch of guys on a meteorology forum who use their phones and computers to make weather predictions and to complain about fossil fuels, while their phones and computers are powered by fossil fuels....

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wolfie just hit a moose seeing that while riding to Allagash.

It actually was that way/result in Dec, too.

In fact, going back 240 months... something > 1/2 of all months, that, or something similar took place.  Despite the so-be-it reality that our temperatures have increased faster than anywhere else in the lower 48 ( Climate Change) in the last 30 years

that cold node wobbling around the eastern mid latitude continent, either over it or near enough by to wonder, has taken place. 

I find that interesting... like, "Gaia" is turning up the heat on the humanity frogs, hoping they don't notice until it's too late and they're boiled and dead.   You know, another way to laugh about it ... using the clean setting on the pre-conventional ovens ... basically kiln the filth to ashes. Like the former is used because the latter is the goal.

[Boston Bulldog]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Prolly not the right forum for this but ... once again, Earth tries to hide the real state of the planet from the policy makers of the U.S.

Pretty wild seeing such dramatic positive anomalies over Kamchatka while also knowing the gigantic snowstorm they got out there a few weeks ago. Weather vs climate in a microcosm.

Extreme begets extreme

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Ocean Effect said:

 

Define Irony, bunch of guys on a meteorology forum who use their phones and computers to make weather predictions and to complain about fossil fuels, while their phones and computers are powered by fossil fuels....

Beer

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Effect said:

 

Define Irony, bunch of guys on a meteorology forum who use their phones and computers to make weather predictions and to complain about fossil fuels, while their phones and computers are powered by fossil fuels....

mm, the irony is that these cold anomalies, relative to the whole, are happening where the industry is most guilty of anthropomorphic contribution to CC.

nothing else -

whether we are using our phones or PCs ... so what.   No one is judging anyone on either side; the post is purely for the other irony. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Pretty wild seeing such dramatic anomalies positive over Kamchatka while also knowing the gigantic snowstorm they got out there a few weeks ago. Weather vs climate in a microcosm.

Extreme begets extreme

yeah, and the other thing,  that sun sitting on the top of the planet look up in the arctic is still 30 below 0 F.  

This is all an integration over relative climatology - it's not linear in dimension.  Definitely the kind of post that starts fights among the razor sharp analytic users of social media Americana     muah hahahaha

Seriously though ... take a region that probably climo-hovers around -20 C in winter, and inject that kind of climo-relative warm anomaly, the difference might just be 20 feet of snow or whatever AI exaggerated depth that was ... just sayn'

[dendrite]

Yeah we’re just having some fun.

Fossil fuel Fridays…Friday the 13th edition

[MJOatleast7]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Prolly not the right forum for this but ... once again, Earth tries to hide the real state of the planet from the policy makers of the U.S.

You could actually shrink the blue blob down to the size of the Beltway (2 pixels wide) and it would have the same policy effect.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, and other thing,  that sun sitting on the top of the planet look up in the arctic is still 30 below 0 C.  

This is all an integration over relative climatology - it's not linear in dimension.  Definitely the kind of post that starts fights among the razor sharp analytic users of social media Americana     muah hahahaha

The world is at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline.

Chances are that future warming will probably double this number by the end of the century. But the next 1.3°C will almost certainly be worse than what we’ve already had.

[ForestHillWx]

1 minute ago, MJOatleast7 said:

You could actually shrink the blue blob down to the size of the Beltway (2 pixels wide) and it would have the same policy effect.

Just out of morbid curiosity how are the anomalies measured over the arctic? Is it satellite generated or is the data filled in via nearest sensors? 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The world is at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline.

Chances are that future warming will probably double this number by the end of the century. But the next 1.3°C will almost certainly be worse than what we’ve already had.

No it isn't 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The world is at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline.

Chances are that future warming will probably double this number by the end of the century. But the next 1.3°C will almost certainly be worse than what we’ve already had.

I'm just gonna respond once to save Brian's annoyance in going down the CC rabbit hole but ...yeah.

I still can't get over 2023.  I don't think anyone has, either.  It's just been excepted, now faded - probably because no matter who is involved, everyone in modernity is zombifide into a state of no attention span.  Ha.  But, I think that it was just so overwhelmingly large and spectacular ... it transcends explanation in a lot of ways.  Like deer in the headlight ?   And thus still vaguely only theoretically explained ( though the goal posts narrowing - ).  People just sort of have to go, okay it was what it was. 

But what that was ...was proof that humanity, despite all conceits and wizardry, doesn't have a f'n clue what exactly can happen in a future with a destabilized climate, ongoing.   No one...man to machine and back, anticipated an entire planet, suddenly rising a whole degree C, air and sea.   Everywhere, all at once,... unilateral response.   To what?  only vaguely described with a lot of plausibility ( probably a cocktail of forces working toward a synergistic outcome ..but whatever ) yet nothing discretely causative or definitive, certainly not informative.

That right there, that lack of explanation ..., should ( no pun intended ) make people sweat.  It should worry anyone with a modicum of intelligence.  You don't have to be a climate scientist, physicist, rocket scientist or Gandalf from lord of the rings to admit, if something that grandiose happens without warning, we don't know what we're really dealing with.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No it isn't 

Steve,

He said "pre -industral"

Your presenting 1991 -2020

Just sayn'   ... y'all can clear up the differences in data sets.

[Damage In Tolland]

When was the last time it rained? I don’t even remember. It’s been snow on snow on snow on snow. Even next week may be snow . Record salt season on everything 

[Massplow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When was the last time it rained? I don’t even remember. It’s been snow on snow on snow on snow. Even next week may be snow . Record salt season on everything 

There’s a huge salt shortage because of it. Very tough to get salt 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. 

This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense 

Kind of like what I mentioned to John that I do on a seasonal level.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When was the last time it rained? I don’t even remember. It’s been snow on snow on snow on snow. Even next week may be snow . Record salt season on everything 

I was thinking that. It’s been awhile. 

[dendrite]

Was looking at 1917-18 at CON. Man that was wild.

Nov -4.8 4.4”
Dec -12.6 22.2”
Jan -9.0 17.3”
Feb -7.4 14.8”
Mar -1.7 15.3”
Apr -1.0 10.2”

60ish straight hours below 0F in that late Dec cold shot