Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

Nah we done 

[NeonPeon]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It happens in winters with good snow and snow pack. If we could go right to high dews and summer I’d be fine. I just hate what is coming this spring of cold lingering forever . Rather keep it wintry . This is gonna be an ugly ugly spring 

 

Nobody gets to complain about interminable, muddy, cold springs who isn't in within a few miles of the coast. If the sun doesn't spend 80 percent of every day burning off the pea soup fog, then you don't have it that bad.

Not having it. It would be like me complaining about a heatwave at 88 degrees. It's still too hot for me, but I try to think of the less fortunate.

[Torch Tiger]

End of month still looking wintry. Final stand?

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Now that Monday’s gone and it’s getting milder, we’ll be bombarded with pack pics like it’s a d*ck measuring contest.

In the paraphrased word's of the great Lynyrd Skynyrd,

Monday's gone with the wind
Oh, my snow is gone with the wind

And I don't know
Oh, where I'm going
I just want to be left alone

[ORH_wxman]

EPS wasn’t nearly as warm as OP in LR. Still pretty snowy in the 11-15 day. 

[CoastalWx]

There’s also signs of something perhaps very late next week, I know that’s far out but the set up for that seems a little more likely than whatever happens Monday.

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS wasn’t nearly as warm as OP in LR. Still pretty snowy in the 11-15 day. 

Did EPS trend south for Sun/Mon as well?

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS and euro flip flopped in the long range today. 

Euro is a horrible model. Go with the gfs.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw that. Euro is warm now.

amazing how warm that's on the brink of being, too.    the unabashed 7   0  if that mean p-boundary aligns 100 mi NW

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a horrible model. Go with the gfs.

After you bashed GFS. Go warm up a bottle. 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s also signs of something perhaps very late next week, I know that’s far out but the set up for that seems a little more likely than whatever happens Monday.

Pretty much all guidance has something late next week. It’s just a question of whether we press a high down ahead of it for a winter event or if it’s a cutter or pseudo-cutter. 

[klw]

Looks like KLEB is having a sensor issue:

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html

[weatherwiz]

Telling Will which model to use  

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS wasn’t nearly as warm as OP in LR. Still pretty snowy in the 11-15 day. 

Ya, It’s certainly not over.  There will be more opportunities for winter weather. 

[SouthCoastMA]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a horrible model. Go with the gfs.

9 hours ago you were showing your baby the Euro, like a proud papa. What happened. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Telling Will which model to use  

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, NeonPeon said:

 

Nobody gets to complain about interminable, muddy, cold springs who isn't in within a few miles of the coast. If the sun doesn't spend 80 percent of every day burning off the pea soup fog, then you don't have it that bad.

Not having it. It would be like me complaining about a heatwave at 88 degrees. It's still too hot for me, but I try to think of the less fortunate.

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region.  sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

9 hours ago you were showing your baby the Euro, like a proud papa. What happened. 

He cried when I showed him the euro bust.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, It’s certainly not over.  There will be more opportunities for winter weather. 

The question is if we can continue this slow pack build up or if we start getting some rainers mixed in.....I do think we'll definitely see additional snow events. But if we pseudo-cutter next week and have these seasonably milder days mixed in, then you start melting back the icy grip winter has had on us....whereas if we only do a little bit of maintenance melting, and then smash an arctic high in front of next week's system and turn into a beefy cold SWFE, then it feels like winter is still in full swing....two somewhat different paths that we aren't sure on yet. 

[Prismshine Productions]

The last two years it has snowed in March and April, just saying

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Go Kart Mozart]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a horrible model. Go with the gfs.

Skynets and ensembles only beyond four days.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

The last two years it has snowed in March and April, just saying

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

It does almost every year....the question is are we going to keep the continuous winter train going or is the ride mostly over and then we're just mixing in stat padders in March/April. Could go either way....some years like this died a slow death in late Feb/early Mar (like 2011)....while others went gangbusters (2001)....some gave us faux spring and then went gangbusters back to winter afterward (2017 and 2018 both did this)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region.  sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred. 

The low SST’s this year should make for a tantalizingly miserable April for some folks.  Bwah ha ha…

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The low SST’s this year should make for a tantalizingly miserable April for some folks.  Bwah ha ha…

The question is, when its 40.2° on April 28th - will I look back on the Winter and say "it was all worth it". I want at least one more decent storm, and get to 50". 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The question is if we can continue this slow pack build up or if we start getting some rainers mixed in.....I do think we'll definitely see additional snow events. But if we pseudo-cutter next week and have these seasonably milder days mixed in, then you start melting back the icy grip winter has had on us....whereas if we only do a little bit of maintenance melting, and then smash an arctic high in front of next week's system and turn into a beefy cold SWFE, then it feels like winter is still in full swing....two somewhat different paths that we aren't sure on yet. 

Or the Sunday night storm hits…

[The 4 Seasons]

14 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ill see you tomorrow at 12Z when the rug gets pulled again, im not convinced in the slightest this isn't just another head fake at this range.

Enjoy it now

@MJO812 lmao you got bamboozled and hoodwinked, saw that coming from a mile away. AIs were never on board 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Or the Sunday night storm hits…

Hit this… 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hit this… 

I get the game. It a high reward/low risk gamble he's playing..but imagine it does comes back. To him, its worth the glory in the face of all the naysayers. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

29 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

9 hours ago you were showing your baby the Euro, like a proud papa. What happened. 

 The real problem is the propensity to lock on to whatever model has the snowiest solutions. We’ve seen it like 10 times this year. I love how each failed storm, we get a nice write up about why shitty model x,y,z is best to handle this and the other models Ill trend towards it. And as usual, it never happens.

the euro had almost no support and completely gagged the solution away in one cycle. It shouldn’t be surprising to people that the only model showing a certain outcome was very likely wrong.

We are turning a seasonal corner whether people want to admit that or not.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 The real problem is the propensity to lock on to whatever model has the snowiest solutions. We’ve seen it like 10 times this year. I love how each failed storm, we get a nice write up about why shitty model x,y,z is best to handle this and the other models Ill trend towards it. And as usual, it never happens.

the euro had almost no support and completely gagged the solution away in one cycle. It shouldn’t be surprising to people that the only model showing a certain outcome was very likely wrong.

We are turning a seasonal corner whether people want to admit that or not.

Yes, I don't think there is any one model that is currently more superior to the others, enough to trust on an island. Maybe the AI ones get there at some point. I'm just glad the Euro pulled the rug cleanly at 12z, rather than stringing some along painfully like late January.