The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[osfan24]

Kinda weird the NAM looks so bad and the SREFs are so aggressive. Usually the NAM is very similar.

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. 

I just dont see it. It’s not gaining any latitude and then pushing east.

[Benjamn3]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It’s not coming back.  No worries. 

Owie. 

[NorthArlington101]

I realize this isn't our storm anymore but still painful differences in modeling for this storm down in North Carolina/southern VA. 

I'd probably look at the EURO AI and disregard all other guidance but tricky forecast for everyone minus eastern NC, which is the only part that seems consistently to get fairly consistently slammed.

[Roger Smith]

Just to be that guy, I will point out that maximum model errors at 72 hours are in the range of 250-300 miles. 

[Steckstacks]

Did the Euro scrape us or complete miss?


.

[Nomz]

55 minutes ago, Steckstacks said:

Did the Euro scrape us or complete miss?


.

South MD got scraped. AIFS same thing. Looks about locked.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Steckstacks said:

Did the Euro scrape us or complete miss?


.

Point Lookout gets a couple inches. I wish the whole shield could bump 75mi NW but the clock has prob run out on those kinds of changes. I'm pretty skeptical of the euro run for my yard even though it looks good on the map. 

[aldie 22]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Point Lookout gets a couple inches. I wish the whole shield could bump 75mi NW but the clock has prob run out on those kinds of changes. I'm pretty skeptical of the euro run for my yard even though it looks good on the map. 

I have a meeting in Greensboro early next week...wonder if they know how to plow down there? I plan on driving

[wxdude64]

17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I have a meeting in Greensboro early next week...wonder if they know how to plow down there? I plan on driving

I'd bring a cookie pan or baking pan with you, just in case. 

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I have a meeting in Greensboro early next week...wonder if they know how to plow down there? I plan on driving

I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads

[CentralNC]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads

Agree.  I'm in Winston-Salem and the main roads will be fine - backroads, not so much.  My neighborhood still a solid sheet of ice.

[frd]

Wow,

I would go a winter without any snow just to experience this the following winter, assuming this forecast becomes reality.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

NCZ015>017-031-032-102-VAZ095>098-100-524-525-300600-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.260131T0600Z-260202T0000Z/
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern
Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Northampton-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
  between 8 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
  Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
  southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very
  difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

 

[Amped]

Its been a little fun watching the Euro cave to every other model over the past day, including the AI, which did really well with this storm.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Its been a little fun watching the Euro cave to every other model over the past day, including the AI, which did really well with this storm.

Euro had the idea of more SE and a scrapper before GFS, GEM, AI's and others. Now it' shows a little more snow than most of the models. We shall see.

[aldie 22]

Don't look at the latest NBM

[Imgoinhungry]

Don't look at the latest NBM

It doesnt make any sense…


.

[AlexD1990]

ratios are messed up on the NBM.

 

also fuck this storm, its the meteorological equivalent of herpes.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Wow,

I would go a winter without any snow just to experience this the following winter, assuming this forecast becomes reality.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

NCZ015>017-031-032-102-VAZ095>098-100-524-525-300600-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.260131T0600Z-260202T0000Z/
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern
Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Northampton-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
  between 8 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
  Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
  southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very
  difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

I'll bet my bottom dollar that gets upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

[Amped]

44 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Euro had the idea of more SE and a scrapper before GFS, GEM, AI's and others. Now it' shows a little more snow than most of the models. We shall see.

Tell that to the SNE forum. They are not too happy about the Euro trend since 18z yesterday. 

[WEATHER53]

I’m just curious about that nice looking cloud stream from the pacific into west Texas?

[peribonca]

It's going to be something seeing a 970 low off the NC coast barely throwing precip more than 100 miles to the west of it.

[paulythegun]

It's going to be something seeing a 970 low off the NC coast barely throwing precip more than 100 miles to the west of it.

I mean it's a double barrelled low with the second one like 1000 miles southeast of it, originally developing over the Bahamas. Think about it like that, and the precip shield won't bother you as much

[SnowFuturesTrading]

GFS took a big jump NW.  Can we get another 100 miles?

 

[grhqofb5]

14 minutes ago, SnowFuturesTrading said:

GFS took a big jump NW.  Can we get another 100 miles?

 

Map?

[SnowFuturesTrading]

2 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Map?

 

[WEATHER53]

SE thread excited about nw move 

[ravensrule]

I don’t think we’re in the 2-4” anymore.

[Jebman]

Maybe we should try to will in a Jan 25 2000.

[Rhino16]

On 1/29/2026 at 12:19 AM, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

 

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I don’t think we’re in the 2-4” anymore.

What’s the difference between a “first guess” and “first call”?