The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. 

Like I said, I'd be happy with 2. Or just 1. I just like watching it fall. The cold temps keeping it around for a few days is a bonus. 

[osfan24]

Kinda weird the NAM looks so bad and the SREFs are so aggressive. Usually the NAM is very similar.

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. 

I just dont see it. It’s not gaining any latitude and then pushing east.

[Benjamn3]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It’s not coming back.  No worries. 

Owie. 

[NorthArlington101]

I realize this isn't our storm anymore but still painful differences in modeling for this storm down in North Carolina/southern VA. 

I'd probably look at the EURO AI and disregard all other guidance but tricky forecast for everyone minus eastern NC, which is the only part that seems consistently to get fairly consistently slammed.

[Roger Smith]

Just to be that guy, I will point out that maximum model errors at 72 hours are in the range of 250-300 miles. 

[Steckstacks]

Did the Euro scrape us or complete miss?


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[Nomz]

55 minutes ago, Steckstacks said:

Did the Euro scrape us or complete miss?


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South MD got scraped. AIFS same thing. Looks about locked.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Steckstacks said:

Did the Euro scrape us or complete miss?


.

Point Lookout gets a couple inches. I wish the whole shield could bump 75mi NW but the clock has prob run out on those kinds of changes. I'm pretty skeptical of the euro run for my yard even though it looks good on the map. 

[aldie 22]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Point Lookout gets a couple inches. I wish the whole shield could bump 75mi NW but the clock has prob run out on those kinds of changes. I'm pretty skeptical of the euro run for my yard even though it looks good on the map. 

I have a meeting in Greensboro early next week...wonder if they know how to plow down there? I plan on driving

[wxdude64]

17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I have a meeting in Greensboro early next week...wonder if they know how to plow down there? I plan on driving

I'd bring a cookie pan or baking pan with you, just in case. 

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I have a meeting in Greensboro early next week...wonder if they know how to plow down there? I plan on driving

I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads