The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF

Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time.  However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often.  

I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude.  

Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.  

Ill take a crack at it. 

I think its based on having a zonal flow vs an amped up flow. Zonal flows don't  generate as much precip and latent heat across the gulf coast states, so they don't build heights off the east coast, hence not as much time to trend north.

A couple other issues I can think of that cause south trends.

1. Northern stream kickers, which cause troffs forming in the ms valley to become positively tilted and swept offshore before they can develop.

2. Energy cuts off over the southwest US or Baja instead of ejecting with the troff in the rockies. This happened a few times in 2022. The result is either no storm or one that doesn't organize until way too late.

3. The retrograding ridge from January 2021. That was a unique one.

[WeatherGeek2025]

last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does!

 

 

Feen

[overcautionisbad]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does!

 

 

Feen

What time will we see the next NAM run?

[Miss Pixee]

Billy Preston

"Nothing from nothing leaves nothing."

0 - 0 = 0

0 x 0 = 0

0 / 0 = 0

0 + 0 = 0

 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

What time will we see the next NAM run?

18z running now

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does!

 

 

Feen

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range.  But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)?  Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region.  And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

18z running now

tick west.  Nothing exciting.   It's going to likely look like it's last run.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Billy Preston

"Nothing from nothing leaves nothing."

0 - 0 = 0

0 x 0 = 0

0 / 0 = 0

0 + 0 = 0

 

Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!! 

[EHoffman]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range.  But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)?  Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region.  And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

This is definitely what happened; one of my close weather buddies lives on western LI and he was basically shut out on most models until NAM started the northern trend.  He went from expecting 2-4" to 1-2 feet in the last few days leading up to the storm.

[SnowGolfBro]

1996 was like that for us (not saying this is anything like that). We were forecast for 1-3 3-4 days out, then 3-6, then 6-12 and then 24 hours out it was going to be the storm of the century. And it delivered lol

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

We cooked! What a piece of sh*t the GFS is...

I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go...

[Solution Man]

Funny

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go...

Honestly i'd be totally fine with this. Beggers can't be choosers.

[Paleocene]

max hopium copium

the nam is more neutral than 12z run lol

 

[SnowenOutThere]

My stance on this storm hasn't much changed. Despite the amazing H5 pattern this particular storm has been a long shot. The best run of the Euro ens runs never got DC above 30% chance for an inch of snow! While the storm isn't set in stone yet we need to see some H5 changes by tomorrow at this time or else its probably over. Still hoping that personally I get the non-coastal to form far enough north to get some light snow.  

 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

max hopium copium

the nam is more neutral than 12z run lol

 

It's better.  But not good enough

[Ephesians2]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go...

if I recall, our area got a decent snow last february from a similar setup

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

My stance on this storm hasn't much changed. Despite the amazing H5 pattern this particular storm has been a long shot. The best run of the Euro ens runs never got DC above 30% chance for an inch of snow! While the storm isn't set in stone yet we need to see some H5 changes by tomorrow at this time or else its probably over. Still hoping that personally I get the non-coastal to form far enough north to get some light snow.  

 

Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself.

People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. 

If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing. 

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself.

People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. 

If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing. 

It wasn't 1 run. There's were 3 consecutive Euro runs 

[MN Transplant]

Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s.

[Warm Nose]

41 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Billy Preston

"Nothing from nothing leaves nothing."

0 - 0 = 0

0 x 0 = 0

0 / 0 = 0

0 + 0 = 0

 

[overcautionisbad]

5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself.

People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. 

If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing. 

People don't seem to realize and Im telling you. It rarely trends North if it is going south of Richmond.

[stormy]

The 18z Nam gives me 2 inches compared to .1 at 12z.  A step in the right direction!!!!!!!

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Honestly i'd be totally fine with this. Beggers can't be choosers.

Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s.

Things we do well here

-hot/humid weather 

-sleet (apparently)

-wind

-losing sports teams (even Caps suck now)

-sleet removal (D.C.)

[EHoffman]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Things we do well here

-hot/humid weather 

-sleet (apparently)

-wind

-losing sports teams (even Caps suck now)

-sleet removal (D.C.)

Don't forget non-severe t-storms

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s.

      Absolutely.   With that low pretty much guaranteed to bomb somewhere east of us, there is solid model agreement in a strong wind field over the Mid-Atlantic.   

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol

10:1 too.. so maybe a 5-8 or 5-9 special with good ratios.

[Shad]

improvements on the ICON?