Amped Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time. However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often. I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude. Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately. Ill take a crack at it. I think its based on having a zonal flow vs an amped up flow. Zonal flows don't generate as much precip and latent heat across the gulf coast states, so they don't build heights off the east coast, hence not as much time to trend north. A couple other issues I can think of that cause south trends. 1. Northern stream kickers, which cause troffs forming in the ms valley to become positively tilted and swept offshore before they can develop. 2. Energy cuts off over the southwest US or Baja instead of ejecting with the troff in the rockies. This happened a few times in 2022. The result is either no storm or one that doesn't organize until way too late. 3. The retrograding ridge from January 2021. That was a unique one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does! Feen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does! Feen What time will we see the next NAM run? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Billy Preston "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing." 0 - 0 = 0 0 x 0 = 0 0 / 0 = 0 0 + 0 = 0 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: What time will we see the next NAM run? 18z running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does! Feen I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 18z running now tick west. Nothing exciting. It's going to likely look like it's last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Billy Preston "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing." 0 - 0 = 0 0 x 0 = 0 0 / 0 = 0 0 + 0 = 0 Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking. This is definitely what happened; one of my close weather buddies lives on western LI and he was basically shut out on most models until NAM started the northern trend. He went from expecting 2-4" to 1-2 feet in the last few days leading up to the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1996 was like that for us (not saying this is anything like that). We were forecast for 1-3 3-4 days out, then 3-6, then 6-12 and then 24 hours out it was going to be the storm of the century. And it delivered lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: We cooked! What a piece of sh*t the GFS is... I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go... Honestly i'd be totally fine with this. Beggers can't be choosers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 max hopium copium the nam is more neutral than 12z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 My stance on this storm hasn't much changed. Despite the amazing H5 pattern this particular storm has been a long shot. The best run of the Euro ens runs never got DC above 30% chance for an inch of snow! While the storm isn't set in stone yet we need to see some H5 changes by tomorrow at this time or else its probably over. Still hoping that personally I get the non-coastal to form far enough north to get some light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: max hopium copium the nam is more neutral than 12z run lol It's better. But not good enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go... if I recall, our area got a decent snow last february from a similar setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: My stance on this storm hasn't much changed. Despite the amazing H5 pattern this particular storm has been a long shot. The best run of the Euro ens runs never got DC above 30% chance for an inch of snow! While the storm isn't set in stone yet we need to see some H5 changes by tomorrow at this time or else its probably over. Still hoping that personally I get the non-coastal to form far enough north to get some light snow. Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself. People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself. People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing. It wasn't 1 run. There's were 3 consecutive Euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 41 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Billy Preston "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing." 0 - 0 = 0 0 x 0 = 0 0 / 0 = 0 0 + 0 = 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself. People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing. People don't seem to realize and Im telling you. It rarely trends North if it is going south of Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The 18z Nam gives me 2 inches compared to .1 at 12z. A step in the right direction!!!!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Honestly i'd be totally fine with this. Beggers can't be choosers. Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s. Things we do well here -hot/humid weather -sleet (apparently) -wind -losing sports teams (even Caps suck now) -sleet removal (D.C.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Solution Man said: Things we do well here -hot/humid weather -sleet (apparently) -wind -losing sports teams (even Caps suck now) -sleet removal (D.C.) Don't forget non-severe t-storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s. Absolutely. With that low pretty much guaranteed to bomb somewhere east of us, there is solid model agreement in a strong wind field over the Mid-Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol 10:1 too.. so maybe a 5-8 or 5-9 special with good ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 improvements on the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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