The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[tdatcher]

15 minutes ago, Nomz said:

what in like 2002? lmao

Yeah, though storms do weird things hitting our little microclimate 

[NorthArlington101]

lock it up 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lock it up 

I will add, the difference between this and the AIFS is pretty hefty. Will be a good test of man vs. machine

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

I'm tempted to take the cork off the fork after looking at the 12z model suite.

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lock it up 

With ratios that's like 1.5"

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lock it up 

I can't look right now...but might want to take a look at the "median" or 50% map...to see if that snowfall closer to DC is the product of a few crazy outlier runs that have like 20" creating that mean of 2" in the area.  We get a lot of false flags where people look at a mean on the EPS and think it's saying we should get some snow when really it's not saying that at all and the snow mean is just a product of big outlier solutions. 

[paulythegun]

WOW. After ingesting MASSIVE changes in the atmosphere between 12z and 15z, SREF shows this much snow through hour 87, with more on the way

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can't look right now...but might want to take a look at the "median" or 50% map...to see if that snowfall closer to DC is the product of a few crazy outlier runs that have like 20" creating that mean of 2" in the area.  We get a lot of false flags where people look at a mean on the EPS and think it's saying we should get some snow when really it's not saying that at all and the snow mean is just a product of big outlier solutions. 

You should know I'm a median lover! Just wasn't out yet. Lock it up 

[rjvanals]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can't look right now...but might want to take a look at the "median" or 50% map...to see if that snowfall closer to DC is the product of a few crazy outlier runs that have like 20" creating that mean of 2" in the area.  We get a lot of false flags where people look at a mean on the EPS and think it's saying we should get some snow when really it's not saying that at all and the snow mean is just a product of big outlier solutions. 

For DC looks like 75% misses 20% smaller hits in the 1-3 range and one bigger hit 

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I will add, the difference between this and the AIFS is pretty hefty. Will be a good test of man vs. machine

It’s easy, 0 - 0 =0 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

WOW. After ingesting MASSIVE changes in the atmosphere between 12z and 15z, SREF shows this much snow through hour 87, with more on the way

 

[Buddy1987]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still barely hanging on to the 3-6" idea down this way. Plenty of time to tick to zero tho

We cooked! What a piece of sh*t the GFS is...

[adelphi_sky]

Waiting for those glorious words from a met, "I don't believe the models have a good handle on this."

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF

Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time.  However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often.  

I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude.  

Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.  

[SnowGolfBro]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lock it up 

Hey that gives my backyard 1.5 inches at 10-1 and with rates could be like 10-20 

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF

Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time.  However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often.  

I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude.  

Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.  

Didn't I read someone say that strong cyclones tend to move more N than forecast due to the earth's rotation or something like that? Some people mention land interaction, hugging the coast, etc. (re: like hurricanes). It may have not been in this forum. 

[stormy]

I dropped from 12.0" to 7.5" Kuchera  with the GFS family from 7 am - 1 pm.

This rate of fall needs to slow down for the 18z run.

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Didn't I read someone say that strong cyclones tend to move more N than forecast due to the earth's rotation or something like that? Some people mention land interaction, hugging the coast, etc. (re: like hurricanes). It may have not been in this forum. 

Maybe we can fujiwara this thing back to us.   

[frd]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF

Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time.  However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often.  

I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude.  

Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.  

That is an awesome question,  I'm waiting on a reasonable explanation if there is one. 

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Didn't I read someone say that strong cyclones tend to move more N than forecast due to the earth's rotation or something like that? Some people mention land interaction, hugging the coast, etc. (re: like hurricanes). It may have not been in this forum. 

Counterclockwise rotation of stronger  ones  points it more n-nnw 

[midatlanticweather]

I will take the NBM because it still gives me snow. Lol. 

 

https://media.tenor.com/efJ_7qoDAQkAAAAM/animalhouse-over.gif

[WesternFringe]

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

I dropped from 12.0" to 7.5" Kuchera  with the GFS family from 7 am - 1 pm.

This rate of fall needs to slow down for the 18z run.

Have you noticed the trends in the GFS and GEFS and looked at nearly ALL the other guidance?  You and I are cooked on this one in Augusta County unfortunately.

[paulythegun]

I asked Google Gemini to take a look at the 12z WeatherNext model and compare it to 06z. First, it made up a bunch of stuff. Then it made up more stuff. After insulting it literally a dozen times, I was able to get it to at least pretend to give me some data that was plausible. Here, I asked it about trends in the precip shield:

• The 06z Shield: Showed the edge of the precipitation (roughly 0.01"–0.05" liquid) flirting with the DC/Baltimore line.

• The 12z Shield: Pushed that shield about 40–60 miles further southeast. The 12z panel for 84 hours out shows DC entirely in the "dry zone" (the white space on the map), with the moisture field cut off near Fredericksburg and the Chesapeake Bay.

 

[H2O]

By tomorrow we can probably close this thread 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

By tomorrow we can probably close this thread 

Maybe that'll bring the storm back.

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Have you noticed the trends in the GFS and GEFS and looked at nearly ALL the other guidance?  You and I are cooked on this one in Augusta County unfortunately.

Yes, I have been following the ECMWF, EPS, ECM AI, GEM and GEPS.

If the GFS and GEFS continue dropping precipitously at 18z with no interest from the others, then I agree that You and I are cooked for this one. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Thewiledcard said:

This longwave pattern has got to go.

This longwave pattern is exactly what we need...we just need some freaking waves to amplify within it... but the mean h5 the next 3 weeks is exactly what all our big snow periods look like... but within that pattern we need some freaking storms to come along...the longwave doesn't matter if there are no energetic shortwaves embedded within it.  

[Thewiledcard]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This longwave pattern is exactly what we need...we just need some freaking waves to amplify within it... but the mean h5 the next 3 weeks is exactly what all our big snow periods look like... but within that pattern we need some freaking storms to come along...the longwave doesn't matter if there are no energetic shortwaves embedded within it.  

Thanks for the clarity.

[MN Transplant]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @MN Transplant @WxUSAF

Question... something I've noticed anecdotally over the last 20 years, when 3-5 days out we have models projecting a favorable H5 feature for our area...it trends north a significant majority of the time.  However...when guidance has a cutoff h5 feature projected too far south of us...it does not tend to trend north as often.  

I can think of a logical reason, perhaps if a cutoff is far enough south its far enough removed from the NS flow and not impacted by minor variations the models typically get wrong...and which cause the north bleed in these features when they are around our latitude.  

Just wondering if you have also noticed this and if there is something to it, besides just random chance and us getting really unlucky lately.  

I'm just guessing here, but I would think that we are looking at two things:

1)  Confirmation bias. Unless there is an actual study showing that this is true, it may just be the snow weenie in all of us that remembers these types of changes.

2) But if the anecdotal theory is actually true, it might be that the patterns that result in an H5 feature going through the deep south may simply be more predictable due to the strength of the blocking required to make that pattern happen.

[H2O]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe that'll bring the storm back.

We can start the west trend before the 18z if we do it now