The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[WVsnowlover]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Try to look at the glass as half full; we have below freezing temps for over a week with snow and ice on the ground.  Kids got out of school for several days and the government let people work from home for three days. Hopefully we can still cash in on a pure snow event, but this winter gets a B so far from me.

That novelty wears off fairly quickly. It's all about the chase and the high that good model runs bring for most here.

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM gets NYC and BOS, but yeah, with comparatively pedestrian amounts. 

The 1/2018 bomb cyclone was a similar setup (except for NC). NYC and Boston got about 10" from that one.

[IUsedToHateCold]

Anyone who's out now hasn't been at this for awhile. We got a day before the blinds start to close. Need to see those trends work in our favor on the 18z and 00z runs. If we're having this conversation at the same time tomorrow it's probably time to plan a trip to central NC or get out a pack of that smooth cold cirrus. I heard it doesn't have nicotine and isn't addictive.

[aldie 22]

Being so far NW i'm kind of enjoying the angst and hair pulling to the south. All I know if we end up getting something out here it will be pretty awesome, if we don't we were never in the game anyway

[snowmagnet]

What did Boxing Day do? It went south in the last 24 hours.  It was supposed to be our storm. 

Last week it looked like Richmond was bullseye for 2 feet, and it went west, hitting PA, Boston, and NY in the last 24-48 hours. 

What about PD2? I don't know the details as I was pregnant and sick at the time, but I know we were not supposed to get nearly that much snow.

It was either Feb 2013 or 2014 when the Polar Vortex caused some very confused models and we got a lot of cold and surprising high snow totals out of it. 

This is clearly not a 2016 storm, but coastal storms can be very tricky depending on where that Low decides to stall.

 I could be 100% wrong, which would make my Raleigh and Southern VA friends very happy, but I think the models will be struggling with this until game time.

 Just my amateur "cup is half-full" two cents. 

[rjvanals]

Ask yourself how confident would you be in Raleigh or Norfolk that you’d be getting a blizzard this weekend? 

[SnowGolfBro]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Am I reading that wrong rims there a lot of hits up to the north? 

I’d lean on the ensembles until 12z tomorrow honestly.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM gets NYC and BOS, but yeah, with comparatively pedestrian amounts. 

Doesn't lessen the sting.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Ask yourself how confident would you be in Raleigh or Norfolk that you’d be getting a blizzard this weekend? 

Not worth going to Norfolk or Raleigh.. no matter how big the blizzard is 

[Solution Man]

@stormtrackeryou ready to flip this bus over

[Nomz]

I knew I should have gone to Wake

[Nomz]

at 500, 12z UK is a lot better than 0z, ICON is worse than 0z. Neither really translate.

[StormyClearweather]

Woof.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

@stormtrackeryou ready to flip this bus over

Not quite

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

I understand why, but it doesn’t make it any easier to stomach that we have a 970s bomb exploding off of Hatteras and a historically cold airmass entrenched over us and we are gonna miss out. Just been a tragic decade for snow in Central Maryland. Sigh. 

And I  would venture to say that it's because of the historic cold pressing that it is south. There are a few of our major snowstorms that were proceeded by historic cold, but 90%+ were not as overwhelming as this air mass.

[dmac]

This is what happens when it snows in Raleigh. Famously taken on Glenwood Ave.

 

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Woof.

Uccellini right again "I'd rather be in Myrtle Beach"

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How does that happen? It's just getting shunted east to fast, or is the block too strong?

Apparently a NW cut-off like that is very unusual. Something to watch as we get closer...

There is always a cutoff on the north side. There is a precip shield on the NW side we just aren't in it. That low is pretty far south at that point . As the low moves NE and deepens the precip on the NW side becomes more impressive but its all offshore.

[paulythegun]

The WeatherNext 2 trend over the last 4 runs through 06z is NW, NW, NW. Found this in another forum, cleaned it up.

 

[Cobalt]

Just now, paulythegun said:

The WeatherNext 2 trend over the last 4 runs through 06z is NW, NW, NW. Found this in another forum, cleaned it up.

 

Clearly our misfortune since 0z is due to the promised posting of the WeatherNext never coming to fruition. Thank you, this will reverse the course.

[Maestrobjwa]

Well the good news is it's not like we're being toyed with here...there's not one model crushing us and another not, nor has there been any false hope. I mean if it's gonna fail I'd much rather it be like now instead of last minute despite the suckage of a windstorm instead of snow, lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

The WeatherNext 2 trend over the last 4 runs through 06z is NW, NW, NW. Found this in another forum, cleaned it up.

 

Show 12z Wed when available, curious

thanks

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well the good news is it's not like we're being toyed with here...there's not one model crushing us and another not, nor has there been any false hope. I mean if it's gonna fail I'd much rather it be like now instead of last minute despite the suckage of a windstorm instead of snow, lol

We are who we thought we were.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

We are who we thought we were.

And we let 'em off the hook!!!

[stormtracker]

Euro seems delayed

[EHoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Euro seems delayed

It's cooking up a monster for us

[87storms]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And we let 'em off the hook!!!

Our total offensive yards are there…but our point total is lacking.

[Solution Man]

It’s time

[Bob Chill]

Euro ai a tick weaker and further south. At odds with the gfs in a pretty big way at this point

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ai a tick weaker and further south. At odds with the gfs in a pretty big way at this point

Delayed at SV.  Weird