The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS compared to 6Z basically a hold.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean given just how unusual it is I guess ya can't give up completely...are there any analogs for this result? (Not that anomalous things can't happen, of course)

I mean.. if it was over us I'd fully expect a 300 mile north jump. Happens all the time for southern NY. It looks like our storm and in the last 24 they go north. We can do that, right? RIGHT!?

[Ravens94]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean given just how unusual it is I guess ya can't give up completely...are there any analogs for this result? (Not that anomalous things can't happen, of course)

1980. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview#:~:text=On the afternoon and evening,eastern part of the state.

[Shad]

Long ways still to go with this one but Id be shocked if this doesnt move North 100 miles in the next 48 hours....

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Bob, what are you thinking for our areas? Can't say I love the trend. I feel like as time goes things may adjust even more south and east. The confluence up top is hurting.

I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event. 

[Amped]

No southern stream to pull up gulf moisture like 2010.

No northern stream to tug the low north like January 2000.

The 500mb low doesn't track over us like the PD1.

We go home empty handed.

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Is it possible to have a closed 500 on the GA/SC border and a surface low way out to sea like that? I would think as early as 500 closed off it would tug a surface low well west. Frustrating hobby man. 

Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case 

[notvirga!]

Hampton roads has had more big snows then Baltimore the last 5 years. They keep winning 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

1980.

But apparently even that got 5 inches up this way...wasn't a complete cutoff! I'd settle for that, lol

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event. 

What are you thinking for here in Dry Fork south east of you ?

[HighStakes]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But apparently even that got 5 inches up this way...wasn't a complete cutoff! I'd settle for that, lol

BWI got 5 I think. Probably 3 where you are and maybe only an inch or 2 up here.

[WxUSAF]

@MN Transplant @Bob Chill @psuhoffman damn ULL keeps digging for gold! We might get a late north trend but this mid-range south trend may still put it out of reach.

[Ephesians2]

CMC at 84h - a bit west and more negatively tilted compared to 00z

still has the two surface lows idea but the one on the coast is stronger compared to 00z and the one offshore is weaker

precip shield is slightly NW of 00z

[Ephesians2]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

CMC at 84h - a bit west and more negatively tilted compared to 00z

still has the two surface lows idea but the one on the coast is stronger compared to 00z and the one offshore is weaker

precip shield is slightly NW of 00z

At 90h the northern extent of the snow is EZF compared to Hampton Roads on the 00z run

[MN Transplant]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@MN Transplant @Bob Chill @psuhoffman damn ULL keeps digging for gold! We might get a late north trend but this mid-range south trend may still put it out of reach.

I'm not giving this one a lot of my energy.  Glad I'm not forecasting for NC/Richmond/Norfolk!

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case 

CMC looks interesting. SLP tucked and precip shield getting thrown back a good bit compared to 0Z.

[Shad]

CMC quite a bit improved from 00Z   is this start of North trend?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What are you thinking for here in Dry Fork south east of you ?

Probably the same but higher chance of coastal influence so your boom scenario is better than me and buddy. This is tricky and I don't have much confidence one way or the other. Everything has to go right for a boom so I'll reserve that excitement for the short range 

[baltosquid]

That’s a good chunk of the way towards what we would need on the CMC.

Great time for Dr. No though

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Shad said:

CMC quite a bit improved from 00Z   is this start of North trend?

No.  I wish  NC getting rocked

[Ephesians2]

within striking distance 

[Nomz]

Canadian wrapping up better but probably too far south to make a difference.

[clskinsfan]

Goodness gracious that is a historic storm for Norfolk and VA beach on the Canadian. They get smashed. 

[TowsonWeather]

8 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Hampton roads has had more big snows then Baltimore the last 5 years. They keep winning 

The last 10

[stormtracker]

Our problem is how far that ULL is digging.  If that thing were 200 miles north...

[baltosquid]

UKMET looks improved with the lobe early on but it has been so far east for this threat that it probably needs a really big improvement to get close to us

[jlewis1111]

[LP08]

I think the positive was the backside sw coming in like the rgem showed at the end of its run. Trying to phase instead of “kick”

[Benjamn3]

Love the GFS, Canadian has had to much maple syrup, and King EurNo is about to make or break the thread for the day. Go team. 

[TowsonWeather]

I understand why, but it doesn’t make it any easier to stomach that we have a 970s bomb exploding off of Hatteras and a historically cold airmass entrenched over us and we are gonna miss out. Just been a tragic decade for snow in Central Maryland. Sigh.