Weather Will Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 WB 12Z GFS compared to 6Z basically a hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean given just how unusual it is I guess ya can't give up completely...are there any analogs for this result? (Not that anomalous things can't happen, of course) I mean.. if it was over us I'd fully expect a 300 mile north jump. Happens all the time for southern NY. It looks like our storm and in the last 24 they go north. We can do that, right? RIGHT!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean given just how unusual it is I guess ya can't give up completely...are there any analogs for this result? (Not that anomalous things can't happen, of course) 1980. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview#:~:text=On the afternoon and evening,eastern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Long ways still to go with this one but Id be shocked if this doesnt move North 100 miles in the next 48 hours.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Bob, what are you thinking for our areas? Can't say I love the trend. I feel like as time goes things may adjust even more south and east. The confluence up top is hurting. I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 No southern stream to pull up gulf moisture like 2010. No northern stream to tug the low north like January 2000. The 500mb low doesn't track over us like the PD1. We go home empty handed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Is it possible to have a closed 500 on the GA/SC border and a surface low way out to sea like that? I would think as early as 500 closed off it would tug a surface low well west. Frustrating hobby man. Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Hampton roads has had more big snows then Baltimore the last 5 years. They keep winning 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: 1980. But apparently even that got 5 inches up this way...wasn't a complete cutoff! I'd settle for that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event. What are you thinking for here in Dry Fork south east of you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But apparently even that got 5 inches up this way...wasn't a complete cutoff! I'd settle for that, lol BWI got 5 I think. Probably 3 where you are and maybe only an inch or 2 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 @MN Transplant @Bob Chill @psuhoffman damn ULL keeps digging for gold! We might get a late north trend but this mid-range south trend may still put it out of reach. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 CMC at 84h - a bit west and more negatively tilted compared to 00z still has the two surface lows idea but the one on the coast is stronger compared to 00z and the one offshore is weaker precip shield is slightly NW of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Ephesians2 said: CMC at 84h - a bit west and more negatively tilted compared to 00z still has the two surface lows idea but the one on the coast is stronger compared to 00z and the one offshore is weaker precip shield is slightly NW of 00z At 90h the northern extent of the snow is EZF compared to Hampton Roads on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, WxUSAF said: @MN Transplant @Bob Chill @psuhoffman damn ULL keeps digging for gold! We might get a late north trend but this mid-range south trend may still put it out of reach. I'm not giving this one a lot of my energy. Glad I'm not forecasting for NC/Richmond/Norfolk! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case CMC looks interesting. SLP tucked and precip shield getting thrown back a good bit compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 CMC quite a bit improved from 00Z is this start of North trend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What are you thinking for here in Dry Fork south east of you ? Probably the same but higher chance of coastal influence so your boom scenario is better than me and buddy. This is tricky and I don't have much confidence one way or the other. Everything has to go right for a boom so I'll reserve that excitement for the short range 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 That’s a good chunk of the way towards what we would need on the CMC. Great time for Dr. No though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Shad said: CMC quite a bit improved from 00Z is this start of North trend? No. I wish NC getting rocked 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 within striking distance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Canadian wrapping up better but probably too far south to make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Goodness gracious that is a historic storm for Norfolk and VA beach on the Canadian. They get smashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Hampton roads has had more big snows then Baltimore the last 5 years. They keep winning The last 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Our problem is how far that ULL is digging. If that thing were 200 miles north... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 UKMET looks improved with the lobe early on but it has been so far east for this threat that it probably needs a really big improvement to get close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I think the positive was the backside sw coming in like the rgem showed at the end of its run. Trying to phase instead of “kick” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Love the GFS, Canadian has had to much maple syrup, and King EurNo is about to make or break the thread for the day. Go team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I understand why, but it doesn’t make it any easier to stomach that we have a 970s bomb exploding off of Hatteras and a historically cold airmass entrenched over us and we are gonna miss out. Just been a tragic decade for snow in Central Maryland. Sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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