The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Nomz]

looks worse @ 72

[TSSN+]

NC/VA going to get a make up snow from the snow they were supposed to get last weekend. 

[stormtracker]

Giving it another day, but seems like we're settling in on a solution.  Obv things could change.  Don't know how far our features are into the better sampling network.  But we're starting to get desperate at this point. 

[Ji]

ive never seen a 986 low here with no NW precip shield

so frustrating. worst hobby

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

NC/VA going to get a make up snow from the snow they were supposed to get last weekend. 

Yeah, looks solid for them.  Rather they get it then up north for sure.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, looks solid for them.  Rather they get it then up north for sure.

I’d chase it if I didn’t have an appt I need to be at Monday morning. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Giving it another day, but seems like we're settling in on a solution.  Obv things could change.  Don't know how far our features are into the better sampling network.  But we're starting to get desperate at this point. 

Yeah, I'm still giving it one more day but agree we're running out of time

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, looks solid for them.  Rather they get it then up north for sure.

I am sure they are saying we are in the bullseye to soon, congrats DC lol

[clskinsfan]

Bob is going to love these runs so far. He is in for a shellacking. 

[Buddy1987]

Man.. that even trended the wrong way for S VA.. this is like an I40 south and east special.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Giving it another day, but seems like we're settling in on a solution.  Obv things could change.  Don't know how far our features are into the better sampling network.  But we're starting to get desperate at this point. 

how do we give up on this?

[Paleocene]

Congrats NC/Hampy Roads

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive never seen a 986 low here with no NW precip shield

so frustrating. worst hobby

How does that happen? It's just getting shunted east to fast, or is the block too strong?

Apparently a NW cut-off like that is very unusual. Something to watch as we get closer...

[LeesburgWx]

I guess Norfolk really is going to get a blizzard. Makes the snow outside on the ground not even exciting anymore. I would rather Boston get buried than Norfolk.

[Scraff]

So when’s our next window? I mean just in case this one ends up geting off the hook. 

[TSSN+]

Outer banks sustained 50-60mph with heavy snow. Don’t see that everyday. 

[LP08]

Damn, Raliegh has been 20+ on Kuchera since 6z yesterday.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

how do we give up on this?

I mean given just how unusual it is I guess ya can't give up completely...are there any analogs for this result? (Not that anomalous things can't happen, of course)

[baltosquid]

You can run the trend over the last few days and see the revving up that put us back in the game and the subsequent revving down. It’s not a weak trend at this point. Leaves us hoping more for a sudden jump now than a slow trend given how close we are to the event. Not impossible but feels like we only win if there’s just something out there the models suddenly latch onto, rather than tiny adjustments on the existing solution from here. At least, that’s the case if the Canadian, Ukie or Euro don’t show something now. Preferably more than one of them.

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How does that happen? It's just getting shunted east to fast, or is the block too strong?

Apparently a NW cut-off like that is very unusual. Something to watch as we get closer...

More confluence to the north this run. Saw this on the RGEM as well. 

[EHoffman]

Pretty wild that basically every storm the past decade has screwed us last minute with some northern jog...except for this one seemingly.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How does that happen? It's just getting shunted east to fast, or is the block too strong?

Apparently a NW cut-off like that is very unusual. Something to watch as we get closer...

Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it.  That's the most likely path to a dc hit. 

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive never seen a 986 low here with no NW precip shield

so frustrating. worst hobby

2018 was painful to see heavy snow one County away. I hate riding so close.. The sting would be as painful this time.. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

how do we give up on this?

Not giving up, I just said that.  Let's see if it remains consistent today.   Yesterday had wild swings.

[WhiteoutMD]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

how do we give up on this?

I wonder if the stuff around DC is adding in what might fall today? 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

So when’s our next window? I mean just in case this one ends up geting off the hook. 

6Z GFS had a couple more legit shots over the next 2 weeks. We'll see if 12Z holds. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

It is too early to give up on the north jog. But the solution advertised is similar to Jan 25th, 2000 - it IS possible. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it.  That's the most likely path to a dc hit. 

Bob, what are you thinking for our areas? Can't say I love the trend. I feel like as time goes things may adjust even more south and east. The confluence up top is hurting.

[DJnVa]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I guess Norfolk really is going to get a blizzard. Makes the snow outside on the ground not even exciting anymore. I would rather Boston get buried than Norfolk.

 

Well that's just mean. US SEVA folks want some snow too.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it.  That's the most likely path to a dc hit. 

Is it possible to have a closed 500 on the GA/SC border and a surface low way out to sea like that? I would think as early as 500 closed off it would tug a surface low well west. Frustrating hobby man.