February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[ILoveWinter]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

So back to the La Niña “front loaded” pattern we had in December? That wasn’t too bad for us. 

[EasternLI]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are a lot of unknowns/uncertainty about the projected SSW and SPV split:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Always is. I hate how uncertainty always needs to be mentioned tbh. That should be a baseline given to anyone and everyone following weather. There are never certainties. As much as we would like there to be. There are only probabilities.

 

What makes this one more interesting than usual is the -AO already in place prior to it happening this time. That leaves the door open for it to quickly couple and eliminate the typical lag time. I'm getting pretty confident the split is going to happen. Ensembles are getting increasingly on board. Plus we've already had the precursor pattern for it. Not to mention that the timing shown on guidance is in line with when you would expect to see one after the precursor pattern happens. 

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

Looks that way for a bit. Although we did pretty good snowfall wise in December.

What is great is that we had a major event during our window (southern energy). Sometimes you get a window and fail.