February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SnoSki14]

Too bad we had the early morning high otherwise could've registered a sub 15 max. 

Seriously staying at 12-13F with sunny skies all afternoon is impressive. Forecast low is 2F but maybe a 0 is in the cards. 

[Tatamy]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Report of 7.3” in Montauk. 

That visibility there is 1/4 to 3/8 mile so this is moderate to heavy snow that has been falling there for most of the afternoon.

[nycsnow]

Rain to snow to snow (can’t tell without precip maps) on AIGFS 

[wishcast_hater]

What’s your snowpack up there this morning?

Just measured 13.5” as of 5 pm.


.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That visibility there is 1/4 to 3/8 mile so this is moderate to heavy snow that has been falling there for most of the afternoon.

And it’s still coming down over the forks. They might end up with 10”. 

[sussexcountyobs]

You know it's cold when every breath u take thru your nose makes any moisture, snots etc instantly freeze. Then melt with exhale. Then freeze again with next breath.

[donsutherland1]

Bitterly cold air now covers the New York City region. As of 5 pm, the temperature in Central Park was just 10°.

Tomorrow will likely be the coldest day this winter. The high temperature in New York City will be in the teens following a low in the middle to upper single digits. 

Monday will start very cold, but the afternoon will be less harsh as readings climb into the lower and middle 20s. The temperature will approach or reach freezing on Tuesday.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -2.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.431 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (4.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.7°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was also 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[RU848789]

22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It's a nowcast situation but it's the kind of system where pretty consistently you want to be in eastern New England/Boston area. If banding consolidates there it probably means lots of subsidence garbage here. 

HRRR was pretty good, at least for most of NJ, sadly.  Just 0.2" of snow here vs. 1/2-1" forecast, which is still a pretty minor bust, since the 1" assumed 15-20:1 ratios meaning only about 0.05" QPF and to be off by only that much shouldn't come as a surprise.  

[MJO812]

9 degrees here

[MANDA]

Currently 1.5 here with winds still gusting 25-35 mph.

Just too bad that s/w didn't rotate off the coast about 100 or so miles further south and start to go negative.  That surface low would have delivered the goods to this entire sub forum.  Another near miss of something really good!  So close.

[Rjay]

Had a gust to 50mph at ISP

[nycsnow]

18z GFS is a parade of rain storms 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature in Central Park has fallen to 9°. That makes today the third day with a low below 10°. That's the most such days since Winter 2022-2023 when there were also three such days.

[dmillz25]

Down to 7 here

[SACRUS]

Early morning max highs

EWR: 27
NYC: 27

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

You know it's cold when every breath u take thru your nose makes any moisture, snots etc instantly freeze. Then melt with exhale. Then freeze again with next breath.

I hocked a loogey outside and when it hit the ground it went ‘ting ting ting’ bounced a couple times.  Swear I saw sparks.  I had to kick my dog free from a hydrant on our walk, too.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

24 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

18z GFS is a parade of rain storms 

Whole forum or just city and southern sections?

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Whole forum or just city and southern sections?

Almost all of us 

[NEG NAO]

28 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Almost all of us 

Tommorrow it will show cold and snow 

[Freezing Drizzle]

3 hours ago, [email protected] said:

So far I would give this winter an A for cold and a B for snow. If it goes to 0 or below in Central Park this grade goes up to A+! I would consider 1993-94 the only A or A+ cold winter in my lifetime!

Chris, since you mentioned ratings:

1995-1996 - A+. 75". Snowstorm after snowstorm, with 31" from the Jan7-8 storm; heck, even the rainstorm 11 days after "the big one" was interesting. Started with a bang with an accumulating "cold" snow in late November.

1972-1973 - F.  It never even looked like winter. Zero measurable snow, along with most anyone else south of a line from around Staten Island to Trenton. Was cold enough at times, but the temperature would always rise before the precipitation.  Boy Scout Klondike Derby at Camp Sakawawin at Stokes State Forest was a muddy mess.

2025-2026 to-date. B.

[wthrmn654]

5-7 inches atleast 100% guessing with this storm

[wthrmn654]

But for a fact 2.5 before the wind lol

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Chris, since you mentioned ratings:

1995-1996 - A+. 75". Snowstorm after snowstorm, with 31" from the Jan7-8 storm; heck, even the rainstorm 11 days after "the big one" was interesting. Started with a bang with an accumulating "cold" snow in late November.

1972-1973 - F.  It never even looked like winter. Zero measurable snow, along with most anyone else south of a line from around Staten Island to Trenton. Was cold enough at times, but the temperature would always rise before the precipitation.  Boy Scout Klondike Derby at Camp Sakawawin at Stokes State Forest was a muddy mess.

2025-2026 to-date. B.

I can see how this season could end up an A or a C - draw your own conclusions why

[Freezing Drizzle]

10 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I am surprised that there is not ice on LI Sound.  Last time that I saw that was February 1979 during the week prior to PD1.

Gap in my education...so PD I was the snowstorm of February 1979?
That one is kind-of a forgotten storm, I recall a foot or so.  Would you happen to have a snowfall map?

@Tatamy

[ag3]

Down to 8.6 here.

Fucking ridiculous already. Enough.

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I can see how this season could end up an A or a C - draw your own conclusions why

If we don’t end up with another warning criteria snowstorm or two it’ll be a C.

[SnowGoose69]

Tomorrow night looks a bit too windy, if it was not I think many places would go below 0 outside urban areas Monday AM.

[donsutherland1]

The temperature in Central Park has fallen to 8°. That is New York City's coldest temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped all the way to 3°.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

If we don’t end up with another warning criteria snowstorm or two it’ll be a C.

mainly because it has been so cold below normal for the season cold

[MANDA]

An even 0 here right now (7:00 p.m.) and house is still creaking from the high winds here on top of the hill.