February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

32 already. Maybe make it to 36 or 37 today

Not sure.  Temperature wasn't expected to go too much higher...

[NEG NAO]

46 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Can we make a thread for Saturday's clipper?

Better ask the bosses.........

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Barely a warmup on gfs

its been like that most of the winter except in early January - models allow the warming to reach us in the longer range then when we get closer and closer to it they reduce its impact here

[Cfa]

Snowpack definitely took a decent hit over the past couple of days, thankfully it wasn’t a heavy wet snow. The piles will probably persist for a while though.

34 here.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Snowpack definitely took a decent hit over the past couple of days, thankfully it wasn’t a heavy wet snow. The piles will probably persist for a while though.

34 here.

believe it or not the snow is also being absorbed into the warmer grass/dirt underneath which has been very dry and needs the liquid thus reducing the snow pack- thats why my basement sump pump is still going off at least a few times a day

[SnowGoose69]

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely. 

I'd classify 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 as Miller Bs more than SWFEs, 12/14/03 was a SWFE though more of a south approacher like 11/2018 was...most come in from way further west than that so the core of the heaviest snows occur to our W and N.  Overall systems do seem to amplify more now, we rarely see these weak washed out systems anymore like a 2/8/94 or 2/2008, those types of events always seem to want to majorly intensify or amp.  There are numerous reasons why thats the case, likely the Pac SSTs being one of them

[EastonSN+]

Familiar 

[EastonSN+]

Yesterday the AO was going positive...

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem insists on only a quarter inch

12z Euro is decent. Gives us almost an inch. Coating to an inch is a good forecast for our area right now. We'll probably have to wait until tomorrow night to get a better idea if it's going to be just a quarter inch coating or closer to an inch. 

[Jt17]

Euro has a big time storm for 2/14 at 12z


.

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Familiar 

it probably will not verify because its 228 hours away

[SnoSki14]

Whatever happens it definitely gets more active next week. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Euro has a big time storm for 2/14 at 12z


.

still 10 days away chances it will verify are low at this point

[Jt17]

still 10 days away chances it will verify are low at this point

Yea strong storm signal though most runs the last 2 days. They were rainy at first, but trended snowier today. Something to keep an eye on.


.

[jconsor]

Some of the AI models are now starting to suggest a scenario where the northern stream system on Feb 11-12 cuts off and slows down, underneath a block over NE Canada (held in place by the upper low east of Newfoundland) which connects with ridging in the central US.

Low probability scenario for now, but most ensemble guidance at least suggests a northern stream system passing through with light precip during that time.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack 

and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 

[Wannabehippie]

MJO not favorable currently for a big northeast snow event. In phase 2 predicted to progress thru 3,4,5,6  thru now to March 4th.

[Stormlover74]

The cold/wind combo is going to make this weekend probably feel colder than what we've experienced so far. Wind chills of -15

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

MJO not favorable currently for a big northeast snow event. In phase 2 predicted to progress thru 3,4,5,6  thru now to March 4th.

We have had snow in those phases. Active pattern coming. 

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The cold/wind combo is going to make this weekend probably feel colder than what we've experienced so far. Wind chills of -15

As far as CP is concerned I'd be surprised if minimum does not dip below the season minimum to date of 9.  Not expecting a 0 in the park but would think on the order of 5, 6 or 7 is well within reach.  Cold air trajectory is very favorable along snow covered ground all the way.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this

Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else 

[NEG NAO]

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack 

and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 

Trucks were still moving the snow piles around this AM in the parking lots. Like I said this snow would have a disproportionate impact because of the sleet driven into it making it a lot denser. 

[jconsor]

I think mid-next week (Feb 11-12) definitely bears watching.  UKMET hinting at it too now.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2019130515606155376

[psv88]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack 

and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 

Massive town owned snowblowers still clearing snow from roads this morning in commack. Some 4 lane roads are still 2 lanes. poor job

[Prue11]

Friday night into Saturday morning looks like a sneaky little system. I could see us getting 1-2” maybe 3” 

[snowman19]

Barely a warmup on gfs

The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA

 

 

 

 

PNA losing relevancy after mid Feb due to changing wavelengths. -PNA becomes more favorable for snows here than a +PNA by latter Feb. 

[JustinRP37]

I took some time away from working from home this afternoon to use the snowblower to clear a path to the oil and propane fills. Looking ahead it looks like we will have a decent pack on the ground middle of the month when I am due for both! Snow was still pretty fluffy here and easy to move. About 9 inches still on the ground. Was happy I could cut through a big snow bank to the road though. I do feel bad for the oil men when people don't clear a path. I know it can't be fun searching for the fill. 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA

 

 

 

 

The ski resorts out West are hoping for that outcome with the record low snowpack. But that record ridge and warmth has been beating the long range guidance since November. So we get a few days of a transient trough before the ridge returns. Eventually the trough will gain some staying power as it’s tough to lock a ridge in for 4 months without at least some relaxation for a week or two.