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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem insists on only a quarter inch

12z Euro is decent. Gives us almost an inch. Coating to an inch is a good forecast for our area right now. We'll probably have to wait until tomorrow night to get a better idea if it's going to be just a quarter inch coating or closer to an inch. 

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still 10 days away chances it will verify are low at this point

Yea strong storm signal though most runs the last 2 days. They were rainy at first, but trended snowier today. Something to keep an eye on.


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Some of the AI models are now starting to suggest a scenario where the northern stream system on Feb 11-12 cuts off and slows down, underneath a block over NE Canada (held in place by the upper low east of Newfoundland) which connects with ridging in the central US.

Low probability scenario for now, but most ensemble guidance at least suggests a northern stream system passing through with light precip during that time.

geml_z500_anom_noram_192.png

aigfs_z500_anom_noram_192.png

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9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

MJO not favorable currently for a big northeast snow event. In phase 2 predicted to progress thru 3,4,5,6  thru now to March 4th.


mjo_rmm.daily.20260202.png?1770229695566

We have had snow in those phases. Active pattern coming. 

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The cold/wind combo is going to make this weekend probably feel colder than what we've experienced so far. Wind chills of -15

As far as CP is concerned I'd be surprised if minimum does not dip below the season minimum to date of 9.  Not expecting a 0 in the park but would think on the order of 5, 6 or 7 is well within reach.  Cold air trajectory is very favorable along snow covered ground all the way.

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this

Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else 

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack 

and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 

Trucks were still moving the snow piles around this AM in the parking lots. Like I said this snow would have a disproportionate impact because of the sleet driven into it making it a lot denser. 

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack 

and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 

Massive town owned snowblowers still clearing snow from roads this morning in commack. Some 4 lane roads are still 2 lanes. poor job

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA

 

 

 

 

PNA losing relevancy after mid Feb due to changing wavelengths. -PNA becomes more favorable for snows here than a +PNA by latter Feb. 

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I took some time away from working from home this afternoon to use the snowblower to clear a path to the oil and propane fills. Looking ahead it looks like we will have a decent pack on the ground middle of the month when I am due for both! Snow was still pretty fluffy here and easy to move. About 9 inches still on the ground. Was happy I could cut through a big snow bank to the road though. I do feel bad for the oil men when people don't clear a path. I know it can't be fun searching for the fill. 

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43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

PNA losing relevancy after mid Feb due to changing wavelengths. -PNA becomes more favorable for snows here than a +PNA by latter Feb. 

Yep we want a negative pna with blocking in place.

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The brief return to freezing temperatures hasn't been all that impressive.  From the point where we went below freezing at 7pm on January 23, we were consecutively below freezing for 234 hours ending at 12:45 PM on Monday.  Through now, there have been 9.5 hours out of the past 293 that have been at or above freezing with a maximum temperature of 34° :

Monday 2/2 Above freezing from 12:45 - 4:50 pm (4 hours 5 minutes) -  max temp 34°

Tuesday 2/3 Above freezing 10:15 to 11:00am and 1:30 - 1:45 pm (1 hour total) - max temp 33°

Today 2/4 Above freezing 11:10am  - 3:30 pm (4 hours 20 minutes total) - max temp 34°

Current temperature is 31.6° (3:58pm)

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8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The brief return to freezing temperatures hasn't been all that impressive.  From the point where we went below freezing at 7pm on January 23, we were consecutively below freezing for 234 hours ending at 12:45 PM on Monday.  Through now, there have been 9.5 hours out of the past 293 that have been at or above freezing with a maximum temperature of 34° :

Monday 2/2 Above freezing from 12:45 - 4:50 pm (4 hours 5 minutes) -  max temp 34°

Tuesday 2/3 Above freezing 10:15 to 11:00am and 1:30 - 1:45 pm (1 hour total) - max temp 33°

Today 2/4 Above freezing 11:10am  - 3:30 pm (4 hours 20 minutes total) - max temp 34°

Current temperature is 31.6° (3:58pm)

Yep, the snow melt we’ve had is largely from the sun at a slightly higher angle every day. 

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3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack 

and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 

it isn't normal snow; it's the sleet. same here in nj; they are still digging and so am i; today i was able to clear the sump pipe to the street; whether it is frozen inside is another story. we'll see.

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16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it isn't normal snow; it's the sleet. same here in nj; they are still digging and so am i; today i was able to clear the sump pipe to the street; whether it is frozen inside is another story. we'll see.

You want the snow to pile up-obviously you want snow. You want the snow to stay around-you want sleet. 

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