February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

And those are skewed numbers with the prolonged warm up. We could be at -8 now

[eduggs]

The GFS is bringing down the ULL at day 5 pretty far west. Could be interesting for New England days 6 and 7.

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

And those are skewed numbers with the prolonged warm up. We could be at -8 now

That’s not how it works…10 days of January was warm. The second half we froze. Nothing was skewed. 

[eduggs]

The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. 
Almost all rain 

[SnowGoose69]

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

[NEG NAO]

40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. 
Almost all rain 

hard too believe that will happen so close after that Arctic cold shot next weekend - especially with the snow/ice still on the ground and the narrow window it has before the next cold front - would expect freezing issues close to ground level - potential ice storm.

[Stormlover74]

Euro shows it too. We rebound very quickly 

[NEG NAO]

Most of that here falls on 2/13-2/14

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

Sigh, that's what happens during colder than normal winters.  Cold and dry, then before a reset of cold weather, a brief warm up and rain.

[Roger Smith]

Temperatures have averaged about 10 degrees below normal since Jan 16th. 

This cold spell is very similar to one in 1961 when the temperatures flipped around mid-Feb to above normal values for 2-3 weeks. Not every Feb with a cold start flips, but others that did flip include 1977 and 1981 which followed quite a cold January and a bland first half of Feb with near-constant record warmth later in Feb 1981. Warmth in later Feb 1977 was less prolific but it kept warming steadily into a very warm March and April (and May apart from one freak arctic blast and snowfalls).  

Even 1918 which had bitter cold (from Dec 1917) to mid-February began to see some milder spells in a highly variable pattern later in Feb. On the other hand, 1979 and 2015 descended into very deep cold mid-month and beyond. The well-known extreme cold in mid-Feb 1943 was followed by a brief spell near 60F. 

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, Islip recorded its third high < 20° this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2017-18 when there were five such days.

Following this post, the temperature rose to 20° at 8:45 pm in Islip.

[bluewave]

Very impressive Arctic outbreak possible next weekend as a lobe of the polar vortex is forecast to dive into the Northeast.

Places like NYC have a chance to drop lower than this weekend since the winds look to be stronger with more of NW flow and stronger high pressure to the west. Instead of the light winds like we had this weekend which didn’t transport the coldest air into the heat island.

My guess is that we will finally get a thaw beginning a few days later as the entire polar vortex shifts back closer to the Arctic and Asia.

 

 

 

 

[North and West]

Forecast for today: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.


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[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Didn’t Feb 5, 2010 and Feb 9,2010 delivery the goods?

Unfortunately, 2-5-10 was one of our worst cases of suppression as the record snows went just to our south. 
 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, 2-5-10 was one of our worst cases of suppression as the record snows went just to our south. 
 

Yep that was a very sad one to watch. Confluence crushed down on it like a sledgehammer as it tried to advance north. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sigh, that's what happens during colder than normal winters.  Cold and dry, then before a reset of cold weather, a brief warm up and rain.

Cold/dry warm/wet the pattern of the 70s and 80s. 

[jm1220]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Cold/dry warm/wet the pattern of the 70s and 80s. 

Very La Niña-ish especially second half of the winter. There’s a signal for something on 2/13-14, maybe that can work out. Feb is our snowiest month on average. At least next winter looks to be at least a modest El Niño. Hopefully we can finally move the warm water in the west tropical Pacific as well so the forcing can move to a more conducive area for us near the Dateline. 

[North and West]

Very La Niña-ish especially second half of the winter. There’s a signal for something on 2/13-14, maybe that can work out. Feb is our snowiest month on average. At least next winter looks to be at least a modest El Niño. Hopefully we can finally move the warm water in the west tropical Pacific as well so the forcing can move to a more conducive area for us near the Dateline. 

You sound sad about this winter, which has been cold and icy.


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[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

You sound sad about this winter, which has been cold and icy.


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Been great so far but reverting back to last winter’s pattern back to cold/dry, warm/wet would be a bummer. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Very La Niña-ish especially second half of the winter. There’s a signal for something on 2/13-14, maybe that can work out. Feb is our snowiest month on average. At least next winter looks to be at least a modest El Niño. Hopefully we can finally move the warm water in the west tropical Pacific as well so the forcing can move to a more conducive area for us near the Dateline. 

Plus we have this which apparently would affect us in March. Sometimes it works like 2018 Sometimes it doesn't like 2023. 

[NEG NAO]

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Been great so far but reverting back to last winter’s pattern back to cold/dry, warm/wet would be a bummer. 

I'm over the cold already.  If there's no big storms on the horizon then warm things up and melt it. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Plus we have this which apparently would affect us in March. Sometimes it works like 2018 Sometimes it doesn't like 2023. 

Keep an eye out for Judah Cohen’s new blog today. He’s doing an extensive write up on the stratosphere and it’s getting released to the public later on today. The link will be on his twitter

[North and West]

That rat bastard.


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[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm over the cold already.  If there's no big storms on the horizon then warm things up and melt it. 

Like having the snow cover but yes-the cold/dry is the worst. And even if we do get into the mid 30s during the day the density of the snow will make it take forever to melt. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Keep an eye out for Judah Cohen’s new blog today. He’s doing an extensive write up on the stratosphere and it’s getting released to the public later on today. The link will be on his twitter

It really seems to be the big wildcard here. 

[[email protected]]

8 minutes ago, North and West said:

That rat bastard.


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If there ever was a year that he would see his shadow, it would be this year!

[[email protected]]

How come no one on this page ever talks about the 11 year cycle of severe winters like they do about summer 11 year cycles?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, 2-5-10 was one of our worst cases of suppression as the record snows went just to our south. 
 

Things evened up February 25-26 2010 when NYC received 21 inches and much of the HV west of the Hudson received 25-40 inches. I received 35 in Highland Mills the biggest storm total I've recorded here.