February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

And those are skewed numbers with the prolonged warm up. We could be at -8 now

[eduggs]

The GFS is bringing down the ULL at day 5 pretty far west. Could be interesting for New England days 6 and 7.

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

And those are skewed numbers with the prolonged warm up. We could be at -8 now

That’s not how it works…10 days of January was warm. The second half we froze. Nothing was skewed. 

[eduggs]

The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. 
Almost all rain 

[SnowGoose69]

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

[NEG NAO]

40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. 
Almost all rain 

hard too believe that will happen so close after that Arctic cold shot next weekend - especially with the snow/ice still on the ground and the narrow window it has before the next cold front - would expect freezing issues close to ground level - potential ice storm.

[Stormlover74]

Euro shows it too. We rebound very quickly 

[NEG NAO]

Most of that here falls on 2/13-2/14

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

Sigh, that's what happens during colder than normal winters.  Cold and dry, then before a reset of cold weather, a brief warm up and rain.

[Roger Smith]

Temperatures have averaged about 10 degrees below normal since Jan 16th. 

This cold spell is very similar to one in 1961 when the temperatures flipped around mid-Feb to above normal values for 2-3 weeks. Not every Feb with a cold start flips, but others that did flip include 1977 and 1981 which followed quite a cold January and a bland first half of Feb with near-constant record warmth later in Feb 1981. Warmth in later Feb 1977 was less prolific but it kept warming steadily into a very warm March and April (and May apart from one freak arctic blast and snowfalls).  

Even 1918 which had bitter cold (from Dec 1917) to mid-February began to see some milder spells in a highly variable pattern later in Feb. On the other hand, 1979 and 2015 descended into very deep cold mid-month and beyond. The well-known extreme cold in mid-Feb 1943 was followed by a brief spell near 60F. 

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, Islip recorded its third high < 20° this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2017-18 when there were five such days.

Following this post, the temperature rose to 20° at 8:45 pm in Islip.