February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[ILoveWinter]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

So back to the La Niña “front loaded” pattern we had in December? That wasn’t too bad for us. 

[EasternLI]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are a lot of unknowns/uncertainty about the projected SSW and SPV split:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Always is. I hate how uncertainty always needs to be mentioned tbh. That should be a baseline given to anyone and everyone following weather. There are never certainties. As much as we would like there to be. There are only probabilities.

 

What makes this one more interesting than usual is the -AO already in place prior to it happening this time. That leaves the door open for it to quickly couple and eliminate the typical lag time. I'm getting pretty confident the split is going to happen. Ensembles are getting increasingly on board. Plus we've already had the precursor pattern for it. Not to mention that the timing shown on guidance is in line with when you would expect to see one after the precursor pattern happens. 

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

Looks that way for a bit. Although we did pretty good snowfall wise in December.

What is great is that we had a major event during our window (southern energy). Sometimes you get a window and fail.

[vegan_edible]

cant lie, ive been in san diego for the last week and i'm kind of dreading heading home tomorrow. it was 81 here yesterday with another day in the 80's slated for today. snow is great and all, especially around the holidays, but i'm personally over it by mid feb because... i like being outside in the warmth and not going nuts in my house

 

i think im looking for a torch pattern

[eduggs]

I don't like the way guidance is headed for next week. The ECM-AI looks to once again lead the way. As others have said - looks like we're headed back to a northern stream dominated period with wave interference problems. Notice how a tiny piece of energy escapes from the "southern stream" on Tuesday under the longwave trof at exactly the same time as a renegade ULL traverses southern Ontario, suppressing heights along the east coast. Cold and dry looks to reign until the drought is broken in the west. The Wed - Fri period doesn't look hopeless, but it's starting to slip away.

[NEG NAO]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Clipper city 

I think there is a good chance of having some snow at least 1 inch on  the ground every day in February when is the last time that happened ? Not talking about  coastal Monmouth or Ocean County or coastal Long Island - those areas are less than 50 % IMO

[the_other_guy]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think there is a good chance of having some snow at least 1 inch on  the ground every day in February when is the last time that happened ? Not talking about  coastal Monmouth or Ocean County or coastal Long Island - those areas are less than 50 % IMO

I think you’re good with snow on the ground at a minimum through the third week in February. 

 

That’s quite the winter

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I think you’re good with snow on the ground at a minimum through the third week in February. 

 

That’s quite the winter

I’ve had SOMETHING on the ground here in my yard since early December. I’m saying like some bunkers next to the greens in the shaded areas of my yard so to speak.  I live in a geographic hole micro climate with little sun, so things tend to hang on in certain spots.  Also my pond - I’ve been able to walk on it for like 6 weeks+.  Its been a crazy winter with snow cover and no material end in sight save for actual spring.  I’m also at or near climo snow.  If we get a a couple moderate bigger snows, thats enough to make this a top 10 winter I’d think.  

[eduggs]

Let's trend the Wednesday wave north. That's the easiest way to score some snow next week. Ensembles had been improving but took a step back beginning overnight. I don't think we've had a plowable snow event this winter when the ECM-AI was not showing it 6 days out.

[eduggs]

Currently 8" snow depth not too far from Morristown, NJ. That's probably slightly above the 30 year average for the date but not unusual. There has been good snow cover for several weeks but not a deep snow pack. Lake ice is getting really thick.

[eduggs]

That was a brutal 12z ECM-AIFS run all the way out to 10 days. The low heights in southern Ontario are perfectly timed to squash the mid-week threat. Then it's cold northwest flow through to the extended range. The worst part about the ECM-AIFS is that it's so steady and reliable that it's ruins wishcasting 

[WeatherGeek2025]

bye guys see you on the 14th

[Lucy Pull]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bye guys see you on the 14th

You’ll be back sooner.

It’s possible we don’t connect on any shortwaves but willing to bet “something” happens before then…even if it’s just modeled blues. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

That was a brutal 12z ECM-AIFS run all the way out to 10 days. The low heights in southern Ontario are perfectly timed to squash the mid-week threat. Then it's cold northwest flow through to the extended range. The worst part about the ECM-AIFS is that it's so steady and reliable that it's ruins wishcasting 

The regular Euro has a nice clipper for next Friday into Saturday, but of course that's way out there. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bye guys see you on the 14th

I'll take the under

[winterwx21]

Also the arctic blast coming in next Sunday looks extremely impressive. Maybe even colder than the one we're having now, which is crazy. It has been a long time since we've had a truly cold winter like this. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

That was a brutal 12z ECM-AIFS run all the way out to 10 days. The low heights in southern Ontario are perfectly timed to squash the mid-week threat. Then it's cold northwest flow through to the extended range. The worst part about the ECM-AIFS is that it's so steady and reliable that it's ruins wishcasting 

Something will pop eventually but yes it could be cold/dry for a while. 

With tons of blocking and confluence our best bet is either clippers or SWFEs. Coastal haven't been our friend for a while 

With +PNA fading and -PNA being more favorable for us latter Feb that's where I think our next big threat will be. However keep an eye out on the 6-12th still because a lot can shift 

[weatherpruf]

21 hours ago, nycwinter said:

remember that clipper storm more then a decade ago that dove all the way to south carolina then rapidly intensified to a blizzard and produced close to 40 inches on eastern long island nyc only got about 10 inches we need that kind of clipper..

jan 2005?

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

jan 2005?

I'm thinking that's the one hes referring to but it reformed off the delmarva not SC

[eduggs]

Yuck.