SHELEG Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 When to we get to phase 2 and 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Recon mission up, should be on 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Bernie not on board with this one…….Get your shovels ready. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Bernie Rayno and Doctor No _ now playing at a theater near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 57 minutes ago, EasternLI said: This is the best EPS run of today. Better than 00z 6z 12z. Just another tick north.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 People forget what it was like 2014-2015…we had feet of snow on the ground for a month. Looked like the arctic with no real melts. 2013-2014 were also frigid. Those years were something special for cold/snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This is February 2014 from when I lived in northern Nassau. Like 7 storms worth of snow. Just buried. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 19 minutes ago, SHELEG said: When to we get to phase 2 and 3? Feb 5th for phase 2, 15th for phase 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: We are currently in MJO phase 8 heading to phase 1, which is supposed to be "good" for east coast snow storms right? But then to phase 2/3, which is no bueno for east coast snow. We just had a really nice clean phase 8 look IMHO. Here's some bullet points supporting that thought from the CPC MJO update yesterday. Western hemisphere is phase 8. I think this potential will respond in kind given a little lag time. Which lands squarely on this period. There's research that supports phase 8 being the most favorable for Northeast US snow events. Beyond all of this, there is potential of a strat PV split. It's on some of the guidance. Probably at least partially due to the MJO transit through the Pacific. We just had a precursor pattern for that as well, which brought Sunday's event. So will just need to monitor developments. • Following a long-lasting, incoherent MJO, the RMM based index increased in amplitude, emerging from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific) and becoming highly amplified. • Once eastward propagation began, the signal quickly moved into the Western Hemisphere. • The signal had been showing propagation in the upper-level VP anomalies before it was seen in the RMM index and may be “catching up”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 34 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Bernie not on board with this one…… . He’s been wrong with nearly every storm this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Prue11 said: He’s been wrong with nearly every storm this year Really? Is that true?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, Irish said: Really? Is that true?! All his forecasts were either too low or too high for my area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, Prue11 said: He’s been wrong with nearly every storm this year never liked the guy. used to like henry marguisity. that was about it. the guy who was the rutgers phd at accuweather argued vociferously that the. 'snowicaine ' would not affect the nyc nj area much; he also thought 2/6/2010's bands would reach into middlesex county. he was wrong both times. he did answer questions online though and in emails. nice enough fella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 From the NE forum. #2 analog on CIPS is Boxing Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, dseagull said: Dont get me wrong, as Im on Barnegat Bay... But id like to see a region-wide blockbuster event. We cashed out in 2018 and 2022, on two bombs that left NYC feeling robbed of potential. 2018 probably top 3 favorite of all time. So underrated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 20 minutes ago, Nibor said: From the NE forum. #2 analogue on CIPS is Boxing Day. EWR 1. 0 2. 24.3 3. 0 4. 0 5. 11.2 6. 27.8 7. 6.5 8. 0 9. 1.4 10. 24.5 11. 0 12. 8.4 13/ 10 14. 15 15. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: EWR 1. 0 2. 24.3 3. 0 4. 0 5. 11.2 6. 27.8 7. 6.5 8. 0 9. 1.4 10. 24.5 11. What a spread lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, Nibor said: From the NE forum. #2 analogue on CIPS is Boxing Day. A number of those were high-impact storms i.e., 12/20/2009, 12/27/2010, 2/9/2013, 1/24/2016, 1/29/2022, etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: EWR 1. 0 2. 24.3 3. 0 4. 0 5. 11.2 6. 27.8 7. 6.5 8. 0 9. 1.4 10. 24.5 11. Boom or bust basically with a chance at a 6-12" SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, jdj5211 said: Bernie not on board with this one…… . As noted earlier, IMO writing the event off completely goes beyond what can reasonably be supported by the models and their ensembles. Indeed, there has been some improvement during the 18z cycle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: As noted earlier, IMO writing the event off completely goes beyond what can reasonably be supported by the models and their ensembles. Indeed, there has been some improvement during the 18z cycle. Agree plus it's coming 6 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18z CMC and Euro got 9/50 dropscondes in their data set... 0z suite should have them all Lifted from NE forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 40 minutes ago, psv88 said: This is February 2014 from when I lived in northern Nassau. Like 7 storms worth of snow. Just buried. Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 22 minutes ago, Nibor said: From the NE forum. #2 analogue on CIPS is Boxing Day. I'm sure this is valuable in some regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic. Central Park had 53 consecutive days of snowpack that winter. Most of the days were 6 inches plus in depth. They didn't set the record but it was close. If Don sees this he would probably know what the record is for consecutive days. Off the top of my head I'm thinking it's 58? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Twitter link won't post correctly but 18z GFS, GEM, and Euro received some dropsonde data (13-14 dropsondes per ContentWxGuy.) 0z guidance should have data from all 50 dropsondes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, TJW014 said: Twitter link won't post correctly but 18z GFS, GEM, and Euro received some dropsonde data (13-14 dropsondes per ContentWxGuy.) 0z guidance should have data from all 50 dropsondes When you copy the link replace the 'x' with 'twitter' and paste it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Central Park had 53 consecutive days of snowpack that winter. Most of the days were 6 inches plus in depth. They didn't set the record but it was close. If Don sees this he would probably know what the record is for consecutive days. Off the top of my head I'm thinking it's 58? The record is 56 consecutive days (December 24, 1947 through February 17, 1948). The 2010-11 streak was the third longest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The nam was about to go nuclear. I think she's coming @Rjay 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 It’s not coming yet. Right now it’s just breathing heavy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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