dendrite Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Some big ‘uns there 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps you can imagine that, but imagination is not a statistic nor synoptic verification. Also, the Delmarva is about 200 miles north of Cape Hatteras and that is significant in terms of climatology of the 500 mb. In fact, when I said Cape Hatteras, that was a loose reference … the actual model run had 516 and sub height S-Southeast of Cape Hatteras. Well the closed low in 1980 was about even with the southern tip of the Delmarva, I was actually in a weather forecast office during that event, the surface low looped around very close to Cape Hatteras, near the NC-VA border. The Blizzard of 1899 may never have been associated with a closed low on the other hand, it was a fairly close analogue to the March 1993 superstorm. I agree with your point that the synoptics are fairly extreme historically, whether once or twice equalled being irrelevant to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey Will how is 1987 February 10 an analog let alone number one? Do you have those charts? https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987.html Kinda strange it was number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's a good shift to the west from the 12z to 18z EPS, We need to see this continue and not just be a head fake at 18z. 3 consecutive runs of trends is generally my rule to feel a tingle. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Well the closed low in 1980 was about even with the southern tip of the Delmarva, I was actually in a weather forecast office during that event, the surface low looped around very close to Cape Hatteras, near the NC-VA border. The Blizzard of 1899 may never have been associated with a closed low on the other hand, it was a fairly close analogue to the March 1993 superstorm. I agree with your point that the synoptics are fairly extreme historically, whether once or twice equalled being irrelevant to the outcome. Right and furthering the point… Unusual situations , you know people have to be on guard for unusual or unexpected results take that list of analogs, for example. None of those on that list had heights like this plumbing to that deep and latitude, and that Z coordinate in the atmosphere. Yet those are the best analogs the best analogs could still be bad comparisons. That’s often misunderstood about analogs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Need this to slow down some. Currently the timeslot for this blows. Mainly during the day Sunday so probably still working and schooling Monday 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 3 consecutive runs of trends is generally my rule to feel a tingle. Yeah, We really need see some moves by all modeling here going forward i think, We cant have anymore regression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Now That….. THAT is an F-ing List of Storms! Jeez. Boxing Day, Blizzards of 1996, Blizzard of 2009, Blizzard of 2022, Blizzard of 2013, Blizzard of 2015, And the 12” storm that kicked off the 2004-2005 season in December. My Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm. i have a fonder memory of 1888 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: i have a fonder memory of 1888 Sure turned that season around. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987.html Kinda strange it was number 1 yeah… You know a lot of those on those list are sus to me. It’s like this situation might be just unusual enough that the best grabs are not very good? that kind of observation tends to create fights on the website so that’s not what I’m trying to do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Amongst the wringing of hands, there’s been some great posts in here today, from folks that have many years of experience watching the evolution of these Miller A, Gulf origin storms. Sometimes it’s good to just sit back, read and learn.Yeah but once again me and you get the valley screw jobSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm. @weathafella? remember like it was yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’d be perfectly happy with 1/2-1” qpf, but can a brother get another 100 mile NW shift just in case? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Some similarities That event sucked up here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: I’d be perfectly happy with 1/2-1” qpf, but can a brother get another 100 mile NW shift just in case? I wouldn’t. I’d be hopping up and down for that amount from a cutter, but if we aren’t getting obliterated from this kind of setup I’d almost rather it be a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake. As is, I’m neutral so I guess… I don’t know. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 28 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, We really need see some moves by all modeling here going forward i think, We cant have anymore regression. I don't have any bitching and clamoring left in me for getting qpf into Maine. I think I should just move to Mattapoisett and call it a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake… tomorrow 12z or even 0z the earliest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake… Biggest run of our lives @0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Maybe it's just my frustrations over UConn. I can't take them making games close. I want the models/storm to take the exhortation of Danny Hurley--"just obliterate them". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably looking at the first in the series of runs destined for a historic blizzard for everybody from interior North Carolina up to down East Maine. An I 95 special 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 19 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Yeah but once again me and you get the valley screw job Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Well, yeah, but we take the good with the bad because the Pioneer Valley is a pretty damn nice place to live! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: tomorrow 12z or even 0z the earliest We need good trends moving forward, and I wouldn’t buy or sell anything until at least 36 hours from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake. As is, I’m neutral so I guess… I don’t know. I'm confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: One more move west and tomorrow the media will be the battle cry for everyone to start running to empty the grocery store shelves. Username checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Well, yeah, but we take the good with the bad because the Pioneer Valley is a pretty damn nice place to live!Very true... Can't argue with that logic, still need 15.9" to hit seasonal however and 19.5 to tie last year, that storm at the end of the 18z GFS looked good for me and youSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18z CMC and Euro got 9/50 dropscondes in their data set... 0z suite should have them allSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Biggest run of our lives @0z? I want to see some stabilization on models as well as some cross modeling consensus develop. 18z made a step towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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