Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[dendrite]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

 Some big ‘uns there

[Roger Smith]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps you can imagine that, but imagination is not a statistic nor synoptic verification. 

Also, the Delmarva is about 200 miles north of Cape Hatteras and that is significant in terms of climatology of the 500 mb. In fact, when I said Cape Hatteras, that was a loose reference … the actual model run had 516 and sub height S-Southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Well the closed low in 1980 was about even with the southern tip of the Delmarva, I was actually in a weather forecast office during that event, the surface low looped around very close to Cape Hatteras, near the NC-VA border. The Blizzard of 1899 may never have been associated with a closed low on the other hand, it was a fairly close analogue to the March 1993 superstorm. 

I agree with your point that the synoptics are fairly extreme historically, whether once or twice equalled being irrelevant to the outcome. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Will how is 1987 February 10 an analog let alone number one? Do you have those charts?

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987.html
 

Kinda strange it was number 1

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's a good shift to the west from the 12z to 18z EPS, We need to see this continue and not just be a head fake at 18z.

3 consecutive runs of trends is generally my rule to feel a tingle. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Well the closed low in 1980 was about even with the southern tip of the Delmarva, I was actually in a weather forecast office during that event, the surface low looped around very close to Cape Hatteras, near the NC-VA border. The Blizzard of 1899 may never have been associated with a closed low on the other hand, it was a fairly close analogue to the March 1993 superstorm. 

I agree with your point that the synoptics are fairly extreme historically, whether once or twice equalled being irrelevant to the outcome. 

Right and furthering the point… Unusual situations , you know people have to be on guard for unusual or unexpected results

take that list of analogs, for example. None of those on that list had heights like this plumbing to that deep and latitude, and that Z coordinate in the atmosphere. Yet those are the best analogs the best analogs could still be bad comparisons. That’s often misunderstood about analogs. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Need this to slow down some. Currently the timeslot for this blows. Mainly during the day Sunday so probably still working and schooling Monday 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

3 consecutive runs of trends is generally my rule to feel a tingle. 
 

 

Yeah, We really need see some moves by all modeling here going forward i think, We cant have anymore regression.

[TheSnowman]

Now That….. THAT is an F-ing List of Storms!  Jeez.  Boxing Day, Blizzards of 1996, Blizzard of 2009, Blizzard of 2022, Blizzard of 2013, Blizzard of 2015, And the 12” storm that kicked off the 2004-2005 season in December.   My Lord.  

[Roger Smith]

Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm. 

i have a fonder memory of 1888

[Roger Smith]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i have a fonder memory of 1888

Sure turned that season around. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987.html
 

Kinda strange it was number 1

yeah… You know a lot of those on those list are sus to me. It’s like this situation might be just unusual enough that the best grabs are not very good?
 

that kind of observation tends to create fights on the website so that’s not what I’m trying to do here. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Amongst the wringing of hands, there’s been some great posts in here today,  from folks that have many years of experience  watching the evolution of these Miller A, Gulf origin storms. 
Sometimes it’s good to just sit back, read and learn.

Yeah but once again me and you get the valley screw job

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[Baroclinic Zone]

12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm. 

@weathafella?

remember like it was yesterday

[SJonesWX]

I’d be perfectly happy with 1/2-1” qpf, but can a brother get another 100 mile NW shift just in case?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Some similarities 

That event sucked up here.

[tiger_deF]

9 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I’d be perfectly happy with 1/2-1” qpf, but can a brother get another 100 mile NW shift just in case?

I wouldn’t. I’d be hopping up and down for that amount from a cutter, but if we aren’t getting obliterated from this kind of setup I’d almost rather it be a complete whiff.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake.

As is, I’m neutral so I guess… I don’t know. 

[moneypitmike]

28 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, We really need see some moves by all modeling here going forward i think, We cant have anymore regression.

I don't have any bitching and clamoring left in me for getting qpf into Maine.  I think I should just move to Mattapoisett and call it a day.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake…

tomorrow 12z or even 0z the earliest

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake…

Biggest run of our lives @0z?

[moneypitmike]

Maybe it's just my frustrations over UConn.  I can't take them making games close.  I want the models/storm to take the exhortation of Danny Hurley--"just obliterate them".

[cleetussnow]

50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably looking at the first in the series of runs destined for a historic blizzard for everybody from interior North Carolina up to down East Maine. An I 95 special

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah but once again me and you get the valley screw job

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Well, yeah, but we take the good with the bad because the Pioneer Valley is a pretty damn nice place to live!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

tomorrow 12z or even 0z the earliest

We need good  trends moving forward, and I wouldn’t buy or sell anything until at least 36 hours from now.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I really want to hedge on a nw trend but I just can’t do it. Too much at stake.

As is, I’m neutral so I guess… I don’t know. 

I'm confident.

[subdude]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

One more move west and tomorrow the media will be the battle cry for everyone to start running to empty the grocery store shelves. 

Username checks out.

[Prismshine Productions]

Well, yeah, but we take the good with the bad because the Pioneer Valley is a pretty damn nice place to live!

Very true... Can't argue with that logic, still need 15.9" to hit seasonal however and 19.5 to tie last year, that storm at the end of the 18z GFS looked good for me and you

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[Prismshine Productions]

18z CMC and Euro got 9/50 dropscondes in their data set... 0z suite should have them all

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[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Biggest run of our lives @0z?

I want to see some stabilization on models as well as some cross modeling consensus develop. 18z made a step towards that.