Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, ineedsnow said: I give up Why? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I give up Lol... That doesn't look so bad at all.... Lots of members to the West, even on shore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I give up It's encouraging that the tracks leaning to the west aren't less deep than the ones east of the benchmark. While chances might have slipped a little bit last night into today, there's still a real possibility of a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Ok Franklin Delano Romanowski You take that birthday wish back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 50-75 miles dumps feet . It’s such a beast you don’t need a 40/70 track . It is going to snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I give up Either OTS or up the Delaware, lol. Actually, that's pretty effing encouraging. May I have the 79 just east of Cape May? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Effect Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Tick NW on the AIGFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Effect Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Slightly weaker but more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Ok Franklin Delano Romanowski I saw the same shooting star … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why? Meaning op was east ensembles were west.. so no idea what to think.. not really giving up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Meaning op was east ensembles were west.. so no idea what to think.. not really giving up Well who cares about any model op runs this far out ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well who cares about any model op runs this far out ? Just would be nice to see one hit good again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I give up Lets get rains to weymouth.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Just would be nice to see one hit good again when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Just would be nice to see one hit good again We know how these go .. especially in snowy patterns . Even if it’s outside BM . I know some here want the storm of a lifetime . I’d be happy with 6-12 which seems pretty likely at this juncture with trends to go 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 GFS is consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Gfs back a bit west but only an op . GEFS should be west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Goofus razor close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That 18z GFS though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this... Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms. Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events. Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east? While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme! If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books. I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ??? Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY? Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation. I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow. 11 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, dryslot said: … it’s a start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Boston and Cape Cod do well on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Gun to my head, I think this hits us. I think majority on the forum agree (not that it actually matters). We’ve seen too many of these shift NW incrementally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It's coming, it needs a little time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So out of curiosity, what is the difference between a model OP and its ensembles? Does the OP run with more resolution/compute, do the ensemble parameters all vary around a distribution from the OP run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 BOX has me (and Brett) snowing Saturday night, Sunday (Heavy at times) and Sunday night. Windy too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: BOX has me (and Brett) snowing Saturday night, Sunday (Heavy at times) and Sunday night. Windy too You're in a good spot for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 could be an all timer if you shift the ULL northeast like 100 miles .. so close to being an amazing look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 My favorite type of storm. Ocean Bomb backing in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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