Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I give up

Why?

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I give up

Lol... That doesn't look so bad at all.... Lots of members to the West, even on shore

[tiger_deF]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I give up

It's encouraging that the tracks leaning to the west aren't less deep than the ones east of the benchmark. While chances might have slipped a little bit last night into today, there's still a real possibility of a big one 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Ok Franklin Delano Romanowski

You take that birthday wish back!

[Damage In Tolland]

50-75 miles dumps feet . It’s such a beast you don’t need a 40/70 track . It is going to snow 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I give up

Either OTS or up the Delaware, lol.  Actually, that's pretty effing encouraging.

May I have the 79 just east of Cape May?

[Ocean Effect]

Tick NW on the AIGFS

[Ocean Effect]

Slightly weaker but more QPF

[ariof]

5 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Ok Franklin Delano Romanowski

I saw the same shooting star …

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why?

Meaning op was east ensembles were west.. so no idea what to think.. not really giving up 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Meaning op was east ensembles were west.. so no idea what to think.. not really giving up 

Well who cares about any model op runs this far out ?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well who cares about any model op runs this far out ?

Just would be nice to see one hit good again

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I give up

Lets get rains to weymouth..

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just would be nice to see one hit good again

when?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just would be nice to see one hit good again

We know how these go .. especially in snowy patterns . Even if it’s outside BM . I know some here want the storm of a lifetime . I’d be happy with 6-12 which seems pretty likely at this juncture with trends to go 

[EastonSN+]

GFS is consistent.

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs back a bit west but only an op . GEFS should be west 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Goofus razor close.

[dryslot]

That 18z GFS though.

[FXWX]

Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this...  Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms.  Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events.  Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east?

While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme!  If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books.  I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. 

Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ???

Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY?  Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation.

I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.   

  

 

[dryslot]

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, dryslot said:

… it’s a start

[MJO812]

Boston and Cape Cod do well on gfs

[Henry's Weather]

Gun to my head, I think this hits us. I think majority on the forum agree (not that it actually matters). We’ve seen too many of these shift NW incrementally

[DavisStraight]

It's coming, it needs a little time.

[tiger_deF]

So out of curiosity, what is the difference between a model OP and its ensembles? Does the OP run with more resolution/compute, do the ensemble parameters all vary around a distribution from the OP run? 

[butterfish55]

BOX has me (and Brett) snowing Saturday night, Sunday (Heavy at times) and Sunday night.  Windy too

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

BOX has me (and Brett) snowing Saturday night, Sunday (Heavy at times) and Sunday night.  Windy too

You're in a good spot for this one.

[ma blizzard]

could be an all timer if you shift the ULL northeast like 100 miles .. so close to being an amazing look  

[ROOSTA]

My favorite type of storm.
Ocean Bomb backing in.